Analysing the play-off picture
Week 12 of the NFL season has been and gone. Thanksgiving is well and truly over for another year and Tim Tebow has further cemented his place as the most likeable human being in the world after yet another 4th quarter comeback. With only five games of the regular season remaining, the play-off races are beginning to sizzle with precisely half of 32 teams on winning records while a select few who find themselves on the wrong side of .500 still have hopes and aspirations of sealing a play-off berth.
Here, I will be taking a look at each division and analyse the chances of those play-off hopeful teams and maybe even make the odd bold prediction along the way.
AFC East
I just cannot see beyond the Patriots in the East. Tom Brady is back playing like Tom Brady after a couple of shaky performances earlier in the season and they are looking by far the most likely team to clinch the AFC East Division title for what seems like the 74th season in a row. Their offence currently ranks third in points scored (30.1 per game) and second in yards (429.0 per game). If you add to that the fact that the only team they face in their remaining five games that has a winning record are the Denver Broncos, then anyone that argues against the Pats winning the East needs to get a one way ticket to a padded cell.
Sexy Rexy and his crew have a chance at a Wild Card slot but only if the Sanchize suddenly becomes a Pro Bowl quarterback and LT parties like its 2006. The best bet for the Gang Green is that the three team race in the North becomes two teams and they sneak in the back door. Meanwhile, you can stick a fork in the Bills, who peaked too early, and the Fins aren’t even in the discussion.
AFC North
A significantly more intriguing race as the underdog Bengals are giving as good as they’ve got and are breathing right down the neck of the perennial challengers of Baltimore and Pittsburgh.
Looking at the remaining schedules, I’ve got the Ravens coming out on top of the division, closely followed by the Steelers. Baltimore are coming off a huge win against the previous one loss 49ers and their defensive leader, the enigmatic Ray Lewis, should be back giving QBs nightmares sooner rather than later. The Week 15 match-up between the Steelers and the 49ers could be hugely significant in the race for the division. A Steelers loss should make it the Ravens to lose, but it’s fairly safe to say that the Red and Gold will have the NFC West sewn up by then, so will they be playing their first teamers?
The Bengals, especially the mature play of their rookie flame haired QB, Andy Dalton, have massively impressed. He was thrown in at the deep end by the petulance of Carson Palmer, but he has coped admirably and they have genuine offensive weapons in Cedric Benson (if he stays out of prison) and A.J Green, while Gresham is a red zone beast. In my opinion the second Wild Card berth will be a dog fight between the Bengals and the Jets. I’m going to go with the Bengals to scrape it. Just.
AFC South
I’ve got the Colts winning this Division. Oh, sorry, I’m just so used to writing that over the last decade that it’s second nature to me. This race was done two weeks ago, but now injuries to Matt Schaub and the Matt who wishes he could play like Matt Schaub has thrown the Titans back in the mix.
I’ll be honest, I have no idea if T.J Yates is any good. The fact that he was behind Matt Leinart in the depth chart suggests probably not, but he did what was needed on Sunday against the Jags. You can bet on there being a whole load of running in Houston for the remaining five games, and in Arian Foster and Ben Tate, they can get the job done. Games against the Panthers and the Colts should see the Texans pick up 10 wins and clinch the division. Although a final day play-off or bust game against the Titans could be spicy.
The Titans will need to win at least four of their remaining five games to make it to the play-offs and with the Saints and the Texans seemingly the only tough opponents left, they could yet sneak in, but they’ll need to win the division and overcome a two game deficit to the Texans. It would also help them out if CJ2K was even CJ1K, because with Kenny Britt done for the season, there really isn’t a great deal to their passing game.
AFC West
It takes a brave man to bet against Tebow, but I’m going to do it. I’ve got the Raiders clinching the division. Much like the AFC South, there are two teams challenging for seemingly only one spot and you have to assume that Tebow’s inability to throw the ball will eventually catch up with Denver, and the way they got totally man-handled by the Lions is a worrying sign of what happens when the running game doesn’t get going.
The Raiders have tough games against the Packers and Lions, but Carson Palmer is only going to improve with each appearance and even going 3-2 (meaning wins against Miami, Kansas City and San Diego) should be enough to keep them ahead of that pesky Tebow kid. Unlike the Broncos, Hue Jackson has a two pronged attack with the ability to pass and run whenever the situation calls for it. Don’t get me wrong, I love Tebow, heck, it’s literally impossible not to. I just don’t see him guiding his team to the play-offs, but, hey, we’ve all been wrong about Tebow before, haven’t we?
NFC East
The play-off picture is a lot less murky in the NFC, with only eight teams, in my opinion, having a shot at making it to the post season. Two of those teams are in the NFC East. Neither of them are the ‘Dream Team’ Philadelphia Eagles. If there was an award for the most disappointing team of the year, surely it would go to Andy Reid’s men. It sure was a stroke of genius hiring your offensive line coach to become the defensive co-ordinator, eh, Andy?
The Cowboys and the Giants are heading in completely opposite directions, and because of that, the ‘Boys are going to win this division. Tony Romo is a top drawer quarterback, make absolutely no mistake about it. He just happens to be prone to the odd collapse (yeah, I know, not exactly ideal!). The ‘Boys and G-Men have still to play each other twice, and quite obviously, those games will have a key impact on who comes out on top, but Dallas has all the momentum and a heck of a running game to fall back on if Romo has a case of the old mind games again.
NFC North
Well, the Packers will win the division. I did tell you I’d make some bold predictions, didn’t I? I think you can rule out Da Bears though. Matt Forte is their main threat, and they have Devin Hester who can score at any given moment, but even Caleb Hanie’s mother can’t possibly think Caleb Hanie is a good quarterback. That said, they do have four winnable games and the Lions have been more miss than hit since Jim Schwartz went in a huff over a handshake and the fact that defensive lineman Ndamukong Suh thinks that ‘football’ means smashing someone’s face into the ground then stamping on them (which will surely see him suspended) doesn’t help their cause.
I’ve still got the Lions to win that race though and clinch a first play-off berth since the fall of the Roman Empire.
NFC South
Hands up if you had Josh Freeman as your fantasy QB? Hands up if you thought he was going to be dynamite? I’m guessing I’m not the only one. I genuinely thought the Bucs would make a real run at the power houses of the Saints and Falcons, but, alas, it wasn’t to be and the South is but a two horse race in which both horses will win.
A month ago there looked to be some cracking races in the NFC but they all seem to have died down. The Giants have lost three on the bounce and could be playing themselves out of contention, the Lions and Bears looked like they might clinch the Wild Card berths, while in the South, the New Orleans and Atlanta were fighting for possibly just one place. A month is a long time in football. I’ve got the Saints and Falcons both progressing to the post-season, thanks largely to the soft schedule Atlanta has still to play. Houston, Carolina, Jacksonville and Tampa Bay are all games a play-off team should be winning and that would put Matty Ice and his crew on eleven wins, enough to beat out the Giants and Bears for a wild card spot, while the Saints will clinch the division.
NFC West
Yeah, the 49ers have this in the bag and nobody else has even the remotest of shots at causing problems in the play-off picture. Heck, the 49ers could lose their last five games and still win the West comfortably.
So, for those of you that weren’t keeping score the play-off picture will look just like this:
AFC: Ravens, Patriots, Texans, Raiders, Steelers, Bengals
NFC: Packers, 49ers, Saints, Cowboys, Falcons, Lions
Y’know what, I’m just going to go all the way and give you a Super Bowl prediction too. I’ve got the 1972 Dolphins remaining the only team to go the whole ride unbeaten. Baltimore over Green Bay. I kind of, almost, sort of guarantee it.
