Talented Reds looking to prove poor 2011 was just a blip
After reaching the post season for the first time since winning the NL Central in 1995, and recording their first winning season since 2000, the Reds were rightly full of optimism heading into the 2011 season. Unfortunately, they never really got going and ended up on the wrong side of .500 yet again.
A mixture of injuries and the failure of the young successful pitching staff to perform at the same level as the previous season were all factors. Jonny Cueto was outstanding but started just 24 games. His 2.31 ERA was fully two runs better than every other starter except Mike Leake. The Reds went some way to addressing that problem by trading away the talented but inconsistent Edinson Volquez to San Diego for Mat Latos. The bullpen, however, was very reliable with six pitchers all recording ERAs sub 3.75 and pitching in 50 games. The loss of closer Francisco Cordero has been alleviated with the signing of Ryan Madson. Aroldis Chapman proved he could be the real deal too, and he is certainly one to keep an eye on this year.
Big hitting superstars Votto, Stubbs and Bruce all return, while Brandon Phillips will continue to provide the spark in the middle infield. The Reds will score runs, but the real question mark is whether they can prevent them or not.
IN : Andrew Brackman (RP – N.Y. Yankees), Willie Harris (OF – N.Y. Mets), Mat Latos (SP – San Diego), Ryan Ludwick (OF – Pittsburgh), Ryan Madson (RP – Philadelphia), Sean Marshall (RP – Chicago Cubs), Dioner Navarro (C – L.A. Dodgers), Wilson Valdez (INF – Philadelphia)
OUT : Yonder Alonso (OF – San Diego), Jared Burton (RP – Minnesota), Francisco Cordero (RP – Toronto), Ramon Hernandez (C – Colorado), Fred Lewis (OF – Cleveland), Edgar Renteria (INF), Dave Sappelt (OF – Chicago Cubs), Daryl Thompson (RP – Minnesota), Edinson Volquez (SP – San Diego), Dontrelle Willis (RP – Philadelphia), Travis Wood (SP – Chicago Cubs)
Catchers : Ryan Hanigan finally has the chance to make the catcher spot his own after five seasons as the back-up. A career .275 hitter with little pop, the 31 year old will be hoping for a big year. Dioner Navarro is a very intriguing Spring Training invite and may well beat out youngster Devin Mesoraco to the reserve spot. The fact that Navarro has close to 1900 more at bats in the big leagues will surely weigh into that decision.
Infielders : The Reds have a great amount of infield depth, but it will all revolve around the performances of Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and Scott Rolen. Phillips and Votto combined for 47 homers last season and both broke the .300 plateau. The duo will be counted on yet again if the Reds are to challenge in the tough NL Central. Rolen never has his injury problems to seek and Miguel Cairo will be his main back-up. The veteran has started every position but pitcher and catcher in his career, while Todd Frazier is another option although he struggled in his first taste of the Majors last season. Paul Janish and Zack Cozart are likely to compete for the shortstop job, although it’s very much Cozart’s to lose. Janish’s struggled last term appear to have relegated him to a reserve role. Wilson Valdez arrives in a trade from the Phillies, while Juan Francisco and Chris Valaika have shown themselves capable of making the step up. The fantastically named Didi Gregorious leads the next generation of Reds infielders.
Outfielders : If the Reds have depth in the infield, they are worryingly thin in the outfield. Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs are two All-Star calibre players that provide different threats. Stubbs stole 40 bases last season but struggled at the plate, while Bruce hit a team high 32 homers. Elsewhere Ryan Ludwick has signed from Pittsburgh and will get the longest look at the left field position although he is some way removed from his 37 homer season with the Cards in 2008. Clay Heisey is the other option and he hit 18 homers as part of the left field rotation last year. Willie Harris is, like Stubbs, another speedster but the fact that the Reds will be the seventh team of his career suggests he may be nothing more than a stop-gap option to cover injuries or for late game tactical switches.
Starting Pitchers : On paper, the Reds have a decent rotation, but we all know that the game isn’t played on paper. Jonny Cueto was inured for parts of last season but recorded a 2.31 ERA along with a 9-5 record. Mat Latos will likely be the no.2 in the rotation. Traded from San Diego for the enigmatic Edinson Volquez, Latos holds a career 3.37 ERA. Behind him, Bronson Arroyo is a veteran innings eater entering his seventh season with the Reds, although 2011 was the first time his ERA was north of 5.00. Mike Leake has had off field issues but has had a solid start to his career on the diamond and will be looking to continue the good work and Homer Bailey will likely complete the rotation. Non-roster invitees that will be worth looking at include Chad Reineke and Sean Gallagher although the rotation seems set in stone.
Relief Pitchers : It was unfortunate that the starters were so inconsistent last year, because the bullpen was near lights out. Ryan Madson replaces Cordero in the closer role. The ex-Phillie saved 32 games last year, his first in the role having been a vital part of the Phillies bullpen since 2004. Aroldis Chapman, Bill Bray, Jose Arredondo, Nick Masset, Logan Ondrusek and Sean LeCure all return after terrific seasons. Those six pitchers combined for a 3.44 ERA in 360.2 innings. When you add the signing of lefty Sean Marshall from the Cubs, that figure becomes 3.22 ERA in over 450 innings. The best bullpen in the Majors? It’s hard to argue against it. Marshall will likely be the set-up man behind Madson, while Chapman will provide the ‘sexiness’ of the triple digit fastball. The highly touted Cuban has looked every inch a major league pitcher and will be hoping to avoid the dreaded sophomore slump. Carlos Fisher and Josh Judy are next on the depth chart while the likes of 6’10’’ Andrew Brackman, veteran lefty Ron Mahay and the man with the greatest facial hair in baseball, Clay Zavada will get their fair shot in Spring Training, but with a bullpen as lethal as the Reds, they may have to be patient if they are to see some big league action.
PREDICTION : I think it will be between the Brewers and the Reds for second place, although the Cards aren’t as good as they were last season, when it actually took a minor miracle for them to reach the post-season. The Reds are one of several teams in the Majors that could do really well if everything falls into place, but how often does that happen? They have a decent line-up with a mix of power and speed, but their pitching staff will be the difference maker. A healthy Cueto and a repeat from the bullpen takes them into second place.
