Possible BBL play-off scenarios explained (Part 2)

Part two of the UKASF breakdown of the BBL play-off positions focuses on the final spots occupied by the One Health Sheffield Sharks, Cheshire Jets and Guildford Heat.

The Bottom End:

The last three play-off teams are separated by only two points, meaning that for all involved, success in the final fixtures could be the difference between a first round meeting against the all conquering Newcastle Eagles and…oh..the equally dominant UCP Marjon Plymouth Raiders. So uh…Good luck with THAT everyone!

Sheffield are in sixth with two games remaining and 24 points.
Cheshire are in seventh with two games remaining and 22 points.
Guildford are in eighth with two games remaining and 22 points.

Sheffield has the head-to-head over Guildford (2-1)
Cheshire has the head-to-head over Guildford (2-1)
Cheshire and Sheffield are tied at 1-1 with the final game to be played on Sunday 22nd April.

How Sheffield can secure sixth: The simplest way they can do it is by winning their final game of the season against Cheshire. That game is for all the marbles. If Sheffield beat Cheshire, they not only have the tête-à-tête but more importantly, they will have the superior points total. Whoever wins that games gets the higher seed. It’s potentially a four pointer.

How Cheshire can claim sixth spot: Sheffield loses more games than Cheshire, which will mean Cheshire beat them in the head-to-head on April 22nd. And they will need for Guildford to only win the same number of games or less than them.

How Guildford can get sixth place: They MUST win their two remaining games PLUS hope Sheffield lose both of theirs AND have Cheshire win only once.

The Breakdown:

If Sheffield loses it’s two remaining games, as does Guildford but Cheshire beats Sheffield, Cheshire will jump into sixth, Sheffield will slip to seventh and Guildford will remain in eighth.

If Sheffield loses it’s two remaining games, as does Guildford but Cheshire win both games, Cheshire will cruise into sixth, Sheffield will fall to seventh and Guildford will stay in eighth.

If Sheffield loses it’s two remaining games but both Cheshire and Guildford win one game each, Cheshire will move to sixth, Sheffield will be in seventh and Guildford will stick in eighth.

If Sheffield loses it’s two remaining games, Cheshire wins one game and Guildford wins both of their games, Guildford jumps to sixth, Cheshire stays in seventh and Sheffield falls to eighth.

If Sheffield loses it’s two remaining games but Cheshire wins both it’s remaining games and Guildford wins one of it’s final two fixtures, Cheshire will claim sixth, Sheffield will be in seventh and Guildford in eighth.

If Sheffield loses it’s two remaining games but both Cheshire and Guildford win their two respective fixtures, Cheshire will head to sixth, Guildford to seventh and Sheffield will plummet to eighth.

If Sheffield wins one game and Cheshire and Guildford lose both games, 6th through 8th will remain as they are.

If Sheffield wins one game, Cheshire wins one game and Guildford loses both games, 6th through 8th will remain as they are.

If Sheffield wins one game, Cheshire wins one game and Guildford wins one game, sixth and seventh will be decided by the outcome of the April 22nd fixture. Guildford will stay in eighth regardless.

If Sheffield wins one game, Cheshire wins one game and Guildford wins both of their games, Sheffield stays in sixth, Guildford move up to seventh and Cheshire drop to eighth.

If Sheffield wins one game, Cheshire loses both games and Guildford wins two games, Sheffield stays in sixth, Guildford leapfrogs Cheshire into seventh and the Jets tumble into eighth.

If Sheffield wins one game, Cheshire loses both games and Guildford wins one game, Sheffield stay sixth, Guildford are seventh and Cheshire are eighth.

If Sheffield wins one game, Cheshire wins two games and Guildford loses both games, Guildford will remain in eighth, Sheffield will end up in seventh and Cheshire will claim sixth.

If Sheffield wins one game, Cheshire wins two games and Guildford wins one game, Cheshire will get sixth, Sheffield will fall to seventh and Guildford will stay in eighth.

If Sheffield wins one game, Cheshire wins two games and Guildford wins two games, Cheshire will finish in sixth, Sheffield in seventh and Guildford in eighth.

If Sheffield wins two games and both Cheshire and Guildford lose their remaining games, 6th through 8th remain as they are.

If Sheffield wins two games, Cheshire wins one game and Guildford loses both of theirs, 6th through 8th stay as they are.

If Sheffield wins two games, Cheshire wins one game and Guildford wins one game, 6th through 8th stay as they are.

If Sheffield wins two games, Cheshire wins one game and Guildford wins both games, Sheffield stick in sixth but Guildford overtake Cheshire to take seventh and push the Jets into eighth.

If Sheffield wins two games, Cheshire loses both games and Guildford wins one game, Sheffield stay in sixth, Guildford move to seventh and Cheshire drop to eighth.

If Sheffield wins two games, Cheshire loses both games and Guildford wins both of their games, Sheffield stay sixth, Guildford go seventh and Cheshire move down to eighth.

Chance (%) of finishing sixth in the league: (Blue indicates One Health Sheffield Sharks, Yellow is Cheshire Jets and black represents the Guildford Heat)

Chance (%) of finishing seventh in the league:

Chance (%) of finishing eighth in the league:

Remaining fixtures:
20/04 – Jets at Eagles
20/04 – Sharks vs Raiders
21/04 – Heat at Riders
22/04 – Jets vs Sharks
22/04 – Heat vs Eagles

And for those of you wondering about the Mersey Tigers – currently only two points out of the play-offs and therefore mathematically able to own a top 8 record – the Tigers doesn’t hold a head-to-head with either Cheshire or Guildford (the only teams they can catch) and therefore aren’t in the play-off equation.