NFL: Week 13 Predictions
Welcome to the business end of the season everyone, and while some teams are out of contention, there is still a serious amount to play for. Some teams have already confirmed their presence in the playoffs, some have the chance to cement their playoff status, while others are fighting to keep themselves in with a chance, no matter how slim.
Last week’s thanksgiving football extravaganza threw up some interesting results, like Green Bay’s dismantling by the Giants, Dallas falling to the Redskins and the Browns beating the Steelers. So can the Pack bounce back this week? Will Dallas finally fulfil their potential? And can Pittsburgh survive their injury crisis? Here are my thoughts on week 13.
Friday 1:20am
New Orleans Saints 34-30 Atlanta Falcons (Saints to win – 17/10 @ William Hill)
What a matchup to open up week 13, an ‘air-it-out’-athon in the Georgia Dome. The Falcons are sitting pretty at 10-1, while the Saints have to win out to be sure of making the playoffs as a wild card. The New Orleans organisation is much more stable now than it has been all year, and while they slipped to a defeat against the 49’ers last week, we are seeing some good things as a result. The Saints’ defense is proving a much tougher nut to crack, and barring Drew Brees’ 2 costly interceptions last week, the offense is as potent as ever. The Falcons have been winning games by very small margins, and as their defense gets more and more banged up, it gives teams a chance to keep up with Matt Ryan and his two pro-bowl receivers. I think their lucky streak ends here, and Drew Brees keeps his team’s playoff hopes alive with a 400 yard 3 TD performance.
Sunday 6:00pm
Seattle Seahawks 13-20 Chicago Bears (Bears to win – 17/10 @ William Hill)
The Bears surprised me with the ease that they showed in beating the Vikings, and that tells me that with their incredibly productive defense, they are a real Superbowl contender. Even when Matt Forte went down, Michael Bush stepped up with 2 TD’s, and if they can keep that production in the running game up, Forte or no Forte, they should be able to win this one at Soldier Field. It could be a hard-hitting defensive affair, but that will suit Chicago.
Houston Texans 30-20 Tennessee Titans (Texans to win – 2/5 @ William Hill)
The Titans continue to baffle me. They have such a talented roster, and in Jake Locker, a young QB with the league at his feet, but they go and lose to Jacksonville? If they play like that, the Texans will roll them over no questions asked, but recently, Houston’s defense has begun to struggle a little on the back end. Without Brian Cushing, the pass rush is suffering, and injuries in the secondary are making them a little vulnerable, as Matt Stafford showed last week. But Houston won that game, and while Tennessee may make a better offensive effort than last week, they can’t stop Arian Foster or Andre Johnson. Houston’s battling qualities through these tough times will stand them in good stead when players return from injury in the playoffs.
New England Patriots 31-17 Miami Dolphins (Patriots to win – 2/7 @ BetVictor)
That effort against the Jets was seriously impressive from the Pats last week, especially offensively. It seems that they have an unlimited playbook when it comes to offense, and there is nothing that they can’t do. Miami’s best hope in this one is to stop the run as best they can, and hope that Tom Brady has an off day because the way he’s playing right now, defenses don’t stand a chance.
Jacksonville Jaguars 17-23 Buffalo Bills (Bills to win – 5/12 @ Ladbrokes)
While the Jags have improved hugely in the past few weeks, the Bills have also stepped their game up. It is true that their secondary is vulnerable as a unit, but they are beginning to find a pass rush and some kind of rhythm on offense. I don’t believe that the Jaguars’ defense has the capability to deal with Stevie Johnson and CJ Spiller, especially when I expect the Bills’ D to start making some plays.
Indianapolis Colts 27-34 Detroit Lions (Lions to win – 10/21 @ William Hill)
This one could be an almighty shootout with two explosive passing attacks and two weak secondary’s that are the achilles heel of both teams. Matt Stafford seems to have found the rapport with Calvin Johnson again, and with Andrew Luck at the helm, incredibly, the Colts still have a shot at the playoffs. But while the Lions won’t make the playoffs now, they still have pride to fight for, and the way they pushed the Texans all the way last week was impressive, so I’ll side with the home team to put the brakes on Luck’s progress.
Carolina Panthers 27-23 Kansas City Chiefs (Panthers to win – 4/6 @ William Hill)
This is a tough game to work out, as the Chiefs’ defense is playing much better football now, especially at home, and the Panthers are playing much better offensively, with Cam Newton finally jumping the Sophomore hurdle. There will also come a point when the Chiefs will put it together on offense, especially with Jamaal Charles looking back to his best, and against this Panthers defense, this could be the week. I’m calling a surprising amount of points here, but that includes defensive points, and I’ll give Carolina the edge.
Minnesota Vikings 20-27 Green Bay Packers (Packers to win – 2/7 @ Paddy Power)
The Pack were humbled last week, and they will be fuming with their performance, so if you’re the Vikings going to Lambeau this weekend, expect a large backlash. Greg Jennings may not be back in time, but Clay Matthews might be, and that spells trouble for Christian Ponder. The Vikings still have Adrian Peterson who will keep the Pack honest, and being just one game behind Green Bay, Minnesota should put up a real fight, but one that I can see falling short.
San Francisco 49’ers 24-13 St Louis Rams (49’ers to win – 1/3 @ Coral)
The reverse fixture of this matchup finished in a tie a few weeks ago, but I’m putting that down as a blip for the Niners. If you can beat the Saints, you can easily dispose of the Rams, and that’s what San Francisco should do. Colin Kaepernick looks a far more polished product than anyone expected, and I can’t see the Rams’ defense being able to handle his skillset.
Arizona Cardinals 17-20 New York Jets (Jets to win – 1/2 @ Sky Bet)
Two teams here who seem not to have a clue on offense, and are putting everything on decent defenses. Having said that, these are the sort of games that the embattled Jets seem to be winning, and with Ryan Lindley at QB for the Cards, they have a good chance of winning this one too.
Sunday 9:05pm
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17-27 Denver Broncos (Broncos to win – 3/10 @ Bet365)
While the Bucs were a matter of yards away from beating the Falcons last week, they now come up against one of the most in-form teams in the NFL. Peyton Manning’s Broncos have a good chance of winning out and becoming one of the AFC’s top seeds in the playoffs, with a good passing attack, and efficient running game and an improving defense. In terms of all-round units, Denver has to be up there with the best in the league, and while Tampa are becoming a thoroughly decent team themselves, they are just another stepping stone for Manning towards a 13-3 record.
Sunday 9:25pm
Pittsburgh Steelers 16-23 Baltimore Ravens (Ravens to win – 6/17 @ bwin)
The Ravens’ 16-13 win last week tells us two things: 1- Despite injuries, the Ravens’ D is still a good unit. 2- When you put the ball in Ray Rice’s hands, magical things happen. That 3rd and 28 conversion was just ridiculous (regardless of whether it actually got to the marker or not). Last week also showed us how the Steelers will miss the playoffs if their injured stars don’t come back, and quickly. Ravens win here.
Cincinnati Bengals 23-20 OT San Diego Chargers (Draw is 21/2 @ bwin = = = Bengals overall to win is 4/5 @ William Hill)
The Bengals are on the verge of replacing the Steelers in the playoffs, and to do so, they need to be able to go on the road to places like San Diego and grind out tough wins. This will undoubtedly be a tough game, but in AJ Green, Andy Dalton has a receiver who doesn’t get enough credit for the work he does. He racked up 100+ yards on 3 catches last week, and just his presence demands double and triple coverage at all times, yet his consistency is frightening. If Green has another stellar day, the Bengals will have a good chance to win, but this game has overtime written all over it.
Cleveland Browns 23-13 Oakland Raiders (Browns to win – 23/17 @ bwin)
The Browns’ win last week shows how far they have come as a team this year, and the trip to Oakland should hold no worries for them. Trent Richardson is riding the crest of a wave right now, and he alone should be enough to carry the Browns to victory, but don’t underestimate the good work Brandon Weeden has been doing. No-one is talking about him, and that means he is managing games well, which bodes well for this game and the future in Cleveland. For Oakland, it will be interesting to see whether Terrelle Prior finally gets to play some football.
Monday 1:20am
Philadelphia Eagles 17-31 Dallas Cowboys (Cowboys to win – 1/5 @ BetVictor)
The Eagles have given up on this year, releasing Jason Babin, putting multiple first string players on IR and letting Nick Foles and Bryce Brown stake their claims on first team action. The Cowboys on the other hand are still fighting to get into the playoffs, so the result of this game should not be in doubt, especially in Jerry’s house. The Cowboys will be looking to tighten up on defense though, because last week’s RG3 disaster was very poor, and a repeat of that will leave them with no chance of getting to the playoffs at all.
Tuesday 1:30am
New York Giants 34-24 Washington Redskins (Giants to win – 5/7 @ Bet365)
This game has gained a significance that few would have predicted due to the Redskins’ great form, and at 5-6, they haven’t given up on making the playoffs at Dallas or the Giants’ expense. However they first have to negotiate their way past a Giants team that destroyed the Packers in a huge confidence boosting win before the run in to the playoffs. After what I saw on Sunday night, New York showed me the form that I expected them to have shown the whole year, and if they build on that, or even stay at the same level, they should win in Washington. I’m expecting serious yards for both QB’s, and it isn’t out of the question that we could see 750 yards passing, but in terms of defense, that Giants pass rush will cause its usual chaos, keeping Griffin in the pocket and forcing mistakes.
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