NFL: Divisional Playoff Predictions
Only the pesky Bengals’ failure to create any offense at all in Houston stopped me from having a perfect record on Wildcard Weekend, but more importantly, the Texans, Ravens, Packers and Seahawks all moved on to the Divisional round, where the NFL’s best four join the party.
We’ve got three rematches from the regular season, and another test for the much lauded Seattle defense in Atlanta. So will the vanquished teams from the regular season reverse the form, or will the Patriots, Broncos and 49’ers cruise through after already having gotten the better of their opponents in 2012? We start in Denver…
Saturday 9:30pm
Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos
When these two teams met last, Peyton Manning tore the Ravens apart, exposing the Baltimore secondary and creating opportunities for Knowshon Moreno to look like a franchise back. I have no doubt that Ray Lewis and the rest of his defensive crew won’t be rolled over that easy this time, even though the large yardage totals that Andrew Luck and the Colts put up on the Ravens defense are a worry. Joe Flacco’s turgid record on the road is also a huge concern for Baltimore, as they will need him to have one of his best games this year to win this.
The Broncos flew into the playoffs, not really being tested in the last six weeks of the season, and are the AFC’s no.1 seed due to a VERY easy schedule and division that has allowed Peyton to grow into this team. The playoffs should show what Denver are really about, and whether this offense really is the force that many seem to think it has grown into. But it is the defense that interests me, it is undoubtedly a good pass rushing unit with Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil and has in Champ Bailey a possible hall-of-fame cornerback, but apart from that, I really believe that the rest of the unit is average, and won’t measure up when it matters most.
Although they may be one of the most overrated teams in the NFL, the Broncos should take this game at home, but I can’t see them going any further, no matter what magic Peyton can conjure. And if this is correct, happy retirement Ray Lewis, G.O.A.T.
Verdict: Ravens 17 Broncos 23
Sunday 1:00am
Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49’ers
This is the best game of the Divisional round, no doubt about it, simply because these are two teams who are good enough to beat anyone on their day, so if both teams play up to their very best on Sunday morning, it will be a real treat. The Packers disposed of the woefully unprepared and ill-equipped Joe Webb and the Vikings last week with ease, and will be on a real high coming into this tough matchup. Green Bay are getting all their starters on both sides of the ball back from injury, and look like the team we all thought they would be at the start of the year, with a wealth of options for Aaron Rodgers to throw to, and a Charles Woodson-led defense that is opportunistic and baits QB’s into making poor throws.
The 49’ers are something of an enigma at times, we know how good they can be on defense (see 1st half vs Patriots) but sometimes they look like they lose concentration or get a bit arrogant (see 12 minutes vs Patriots where Tom Brady scored 28 points). Their offense is still evolving, and Colin Kaepernick adds an element of unpredictability and a cannon of an arm, so that Michael Crabtree can fulfil his potential. Frank Gore is a reliable back who will give you everything game after game, and he will gash the Packers if they don’t take care. But the key to this game will be how San Francisco game plan on defense, if they can take away the run, then even Aaron Rodgers will struggle in a one dimensional offense.
The X-factor could be the mobility of both QB’s, and Clay Matthews’ most important job might not be racking up sacks, but using his athleticism to chase down Kaepernick and stop him from ripping off big runs. Even if Matthews can do this, I still think the Pack will be fighting an uphill battle in San Fran.
Verdict: Packers 24 49’ers 27
Sunday 6:00pm
Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons
I am running out of superlatives for how good Russell Wilson is. Last week, I don’t remember seeing him make a mistake, and even though it was against a shaky Redskins defense, he looked like he had been in the league for years. The sneaky Falcons secondary will prove a much bigger test for him here though, and he will have to use everything he has learned this year to avoid being confused by Atlanta’s fluid formations. Marshawn Lynch has been a beast all year, and the Falcons have been weak against the run at times this season, so this promises to be a good matchup for Seattle, especially on first down, where Atlanta have given up over five yards per carry. The only negative for the Seahawks coming into this one, is that their best pass rusher, Chris Clemons was put on IR this week, so Bruce Irvin will have to step up. If Matt Ryan is allowed too much time in the pocket, it won’t matter how good Seattle’s secondary is because Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez are just too good to cover for too long.
And this is where the game will be decided, if ‘Matty Ice’ turns up to defend his nickname and throws for 300 yards, the Falcons have an excellent chance of progressing. The Falcons desperately need Michael Turner and Jaquizz Rodgers to put something together on the ground as I have no doubt that Pete Carroll will have lots of exotic blitz packages to throw at Ryan after losing Clemons. Pressure will be the key in this playoff game, and if Seattle can get Matt Ryan rushing his passes, they can win this, but if Atlanta can play well enough against the run and pressure Wilson to throw a lot, I am convinced we will see some cracks in his armour.
You wouldn’t initially think this would be a shootout, but there’s always one in the playoffs every year, and in dome conditions, we could see a scoreboard explosion. This has to be a tight game, and I won’t stray from my principles. The team that runs the ball better and plays better defense should win, and that could be the Seahawks.
Verdict: Seahawks 34 Falcons 30
Sunday 9:30pm
Houston Texans @ New England Patriots
A lot of people are already writing off the Texans at Foxboro’, but this column is not that stupid. Houston will have learnt from the loss earlier in the season and will play better on both sides of the ball, but the question is, will the Patriots too?
From what Bill Belichick has been saying in the media, it looks like we can expect a no-huddle, up-tempo, no-holds-barred offensive display with all of their primary weapons back fit and firing, especially Rob Gronkowski, who didn’t play last time these two sides met. But this aggressive game plan applies to defense too, I think Belichick will take his chances with Schaub and try to apply as much pressure as he possible can on the line of scrimmage to stop Arian Foster running all over the Patriots. This is a risky tactic as I think Gary Kubiak might come out throwing for once, but it is one that has proved successful this year against Houston. When Foster runs for less than 100 yards, those are the games that Houston lose, and New England will undoubtedly prioritise this.
Defensively for the Texans, they will have to make a better fist of things than last time, and the return of Brooks Reed will help, but they really need JJ Watt to have the most monstrous game of his monstrous career so far to have a chance of stopping Brady and his weapons from piling on points. This Houston secondary is vulnerable, especially when it can’t go man to man on the outside, as Jonathan Joseph is good one on one, but gets lost inside in space, so expect him to track Brandon Lloyd, while the Texans’ safeties have a huge job on their hands with Welker, Gronk and Hernandez… and Woodhead… and Ridley… and Vereen… you get the picture.
At the end of the day, if the Pats play well on offense, they will score 4 TD’s against most teams, and I’m just not convinced that the Texans can keep up with that if the Pats continue their turnover supremacy.