Rob’s Best Bets: BBL Championship – 8th March
There’s plenty of value in the BBL tonight where the betting markets are concerned, with tight clashes in all three Championship games (yes, I include Mersey vs Durham in that description…)
And that is where we are going to start, at Knowsley, as the league’s bottom two clubs battle it out.
From my perspective, this really is the beginning of the end of Mersey’s chances to win a game this season. Tonight’s game is the first of two at home to Wildcats over the next month as the run-in to the play-offs draws ever nearer.
The players know it, and no doubting Coach Tony Walsh knows it, despite his adamant belief that they will get a win from SOMEWHERE; Durham presents their best chance now of securing the W that prevents giving them the unenviable record of going a season winless.
They are out of contention for the play-offs, so this is a pride mission, but the fact remains they are still losing by an average of 33.6 pts (37.4 in their last 5 games alone).
The only previous meeting of these sides this season saw Durham run out 91-71 winners, joint third best result for Mersey.
Stakes are mightily high though now, Mersey’s desperation to get a win, but also for Dave Elderkin’s side as they know others around them in the scrap for 7th and 8th place in the league have already picked up either the whitewash or at least the head-to-head over Mersey, so a loss pretty much ends the North East side’s hopes of sneaking that final play-off berth.
Mersey’s chances of a win are dramatically shorter than in previous weeks, best odds of 9/1 with William Hill, if you feel you want to go for it, then at your peril because I think Durham won’t be one for suffering fools gladly.
The value for me is clear…
Durham win with the handicap of -23.5 points at 7/4 with William Hill
It really kills me to say it, but I’m here for value not sentimentality!
Let’s now look a little south as Worcester face an improved London Lions side.
4th vs 5th in the last six form guide, and with their last showdown going to two periods of overtime; this isn’t over and done with by any imagination if you believe the outright odds from the bookies.
Worcester are way clear at 1/6 which for me is beyond short. It’s almost criminal to think about betting on that market.
The signing of Rod Brown could now see some impact for Lions, and if they want to stretch things out in the table to bank 7th spot, a win here is just what the doctor would order, but with four away games left, and none at home, and with there being more winnable games on the road (Giants to get the head-to-head), it’s difficult to see them walk away with victory.
Worcester’s win against Leicester might have swayed the odds more as well, but the bookies are seeing in every other market that this is being made hard to call.
Wolves will need to learn from not letting teams like Riders come back into things, and despite Lions’ improvements, and what other games they will be targeting, the safe money will be in the HT/FT, albeit not huge, but safe!
Worcester/Worcester (HT/FT) at 1/2 with William Hill
Now that’s over and done with, we can head to the North East and Sport Central for a game that I think will be the tastiest of the lot!
Newcastle cannot afford to drop any more games. It really is as simple as that, and to put the pressure on Leicester as they play out the BBL Trophy Final, they need to win at home tonight. No stepping off the gas and working on defense as they did last Friday against Mersey; straight to the point and working hard.
The first quarter during this season for Eagles has often killed off games, no matter who they played, and Surrey have other games they need to be more prepared for to get the wins and push their way into the top four (Phoenix, Wildcats and Tigers).
Looking at recent performances, and this is what I’m going to judge this battle on, I’m going for a strange market…
Surrey Heat to win 2nd quarter at 13/8 with William Hill
Surrey might take a little time to get into things and then the Holmes twins can go to work, as they will probably be chasing a strong Eagles first quarter, and that’s plenty of value in my eyes.
Remember, have fun with it, don’t take these tips serious and watertight – I can’t help you pay off Wonga.com loans.
(Serious word of warning though – please don’t gamble over the odds unless you can afford to lose it. A personal friend of mine asked me what the odds were on an Eagles win by -46.5 on William Hill last week versus Tigers (game finished with 43 point spread)…he lost £110. Lucky for him, he had a tax rebate and had won laying the Tigers before…)
