Fantasy 5 Up 5 Down: Starting as they mean to go on?

Although we’re just three games into the regular season, fantasy owners will be aware of how important it is to get off to a hot start. If you fall behind early, it can be a long climb back into contention. Not only that, but owners need to be on their toes to keep an eye out for injuries, call-ups or hot starts. Players like R.A. Dickey and Mike Trout went undrafted in many leagues last season, and it was the eagle-eyed owner who scooped them off the waiver wire that profited. With that said, it’s also important to know which players to let go.

In retrospect, many fantasy owners may have wished they had cut Tim Lincecum early on last season, rather than letting his name disguise the fact the results were terrible. So, which guys have caught my eye in the early season showings, and which are falling in my estimations already?

1. Jackie Bradley Jr.

   Jackie Bradley was a surprise inclusion on the 30 man roster for the Red Sox, as his strong Spring Training and injuries to Ortiz and Kalish opened up an outfield spot. So far, he has taken his chance with both hands, drawing three walks on debut against C.C. Sabathia, and driving in runs in both his next two games. Bradley was a pretty big prospect entering the season, with his plate discipline and defense both shining through in the Minors. He won’t be a big source of power, but has decent speed and if he can stay in the line-up should have plenty of opportunities to sustain both a high average and on-base percentage. If you’re playing in a league that counts OBP or walks, he becomes more valuable, but even in standard leagues he is worth taking a chance on as long as he remains a part of that line-up. Just don’t expect Mike Trout!

2. Chris Davis

   With the departure of Mark Reynolds, Chris Davis was expected to have consistent playing time at the heart of the Orioles line-up. In the first few games he has gotten just that, and has taken full advantage, hitting .636 with three home runs and 11 RBI. That line is clearly unsustainable, but this isn’t a complete fluke for Davis who had a big breakout year for Baltimore last season on his way to 33 homers. He strikes out a lot, which detracts from his value in leagues that have negative points for K’s, but the average is solid (.270 last season) and his power is there for all to see. At some point you may want to sell high, but with Minnesota set to visit the Orioles at hitter-friendly Camden Yards, followed by a trip to Fenway, he might keep swinging this red hot bat for a little while yet.

3. Yu Darvish

   It’s been quite a week for pitchers in general, with 16 different starters throwing shutouts. None (not even Clayton Kershaw) had quite as good an outing as Yu Darvish, who was one out away from a perfect game before giving up a hit to Marwin Gonzalez. Darvish had a great season last year, and an even better September (2.21 ERA) but battled control issues (89 walks in 191 innings) all season. It was only the Astros, but Darvish showed much better control, and kept the dazzling strikeout numbers coming, which is an enticing combination for fantasy owners. Pitching in a tough home park in Arlington may damage his ERA, but he’s still my sneaky pick for the Cy Young award, and fantasy owners should be ready for a monster season.

4. Michael Morse

   If anyone has had a better start to the season than Chris Davis, it might be Michael Morse of the Seattle Mariners. He’s had a hit in every game of this four-game series with Oakland, and four of those six hits have been home runs. Morse was brought in to hit homers, and whilst he’ll strike out a fair bit doing it, he’s carried on from a monster Spring Training to prove that his power is legitimate. Morse is pretty much a dead fastball hitter, so it’s no surprise that all four bombs have come off fastballs. Pitchers will learn to throw more breaking pitches, and spacious Safeco Field will probably harm his stats a bit, even with the fences moved in. He’s still an excellent hitter, who is a good bet for a .280 average and 30 home runs, but if you own him, don’t be afraid to sell high.

5. Jose Fernandez

   This young man’s name generated a lot of buzz earlier in the week; despite the fact he is yet to set foot on a Major League mound. In fact, he is yet to set foot on a mound at a level higher than single-A, making the Marlins decision to call him up to the Majors somewhat bizarre. Fernandez was excellent across two levels last season, with an ERA below 2 and a K/9 rate that easily eclipsed one every inning. He was a top prospect in the Marlins farm system, but at the age of 20 and with little experience of facing big league calibre hitters there are plenty of question marks. Fernandez has great stuff, and I expect he’ll be effective in his first few starts whilst hitters get used to him. However, with little pitching experience to speak of, there will come a point where hitters adjust and he starts getting hit, so make sure you’ve sold high when that point comes.

1. Carlos Marmol

   Carlos Marmol has walked a tighter tightrope than any closer in baseball in the past few years, battling control issues, giving up runs and somehow managing to save 92 games in the last three seasons combined. Heading into this season, it was expected that the Cubs would let him close to start the season, before selling him to the highest bidder come July. Unfortunately, he has not only ruined his trade value in his first two outings of the season, but also risked losing his job. On opening day, he came in for the ninth inning and was able to record just one out (giving up a hit and a walk) before being replaced. Then yesterday, he got his second stab at a save, with a healthy three run lead and contrived to give up two runs on three hits and a walk, whilst still escaping with a save thanks to a big double play. Japanese import Kyuji Fujikawa looks set to take over as the ninth inning man any day now, so if he is available in your league, snap him up.

2. John Axford

   From one wobbly closer to another. Just a season after saving 46 games with a 1.95 ERA in 2011, Axford struggled in 2012, with a 4.67 ERA and 9 blown saves. A bounceback season was expected this year, but so far he has been just as shaky, after blowing a save on opening day when he allowed a game-tying home run and giving up three runs on five hits whilst getting just two outs on Wednesday. He had a serious problem with home runs last year, allowing ten in 69 innings, and that has carried over into this season as he has allowed three already. The fastball velocity has declined and his control is all over the place up in the zone, so whilst he may have a long leash in Milwaukee, the results could be ugly until he is able to rediscover his old form.

3. B.J. Upton

   After a red-hot Spring Training in which he hit .347, Upton has struggled mightily early this season going 0-for-11 in his first three games with seven strikeouts. He’s too good a player not to break out of this slump eventually, but a low batting average, plenty of strikeouts and maddening cold streaks are things that you have to deal with if B.J. Upton is in your team. He still has 30/30 potential, but to confuse him with brother Justin would be foolish. He’ll have a chance to tee off against the considerably weaker Cubs in the next few days, and fantasy owners will be hoping he can jumpstart his season there.

4. R.A. Dickey

   Dickey struggled in his season debut, allowing three runs in six innings against the Indians. Perhaps more concerning was the four walks and five hits that may have fantasy owners worrying that his 2012 season was a fluke. Whilst repeating his Cy Young form from last year will be tough, I don’t think he’ll regress from fantasy relevance. He should continue to be a consistent stream of innings and strikeouts with the upside that he can be downright dominant on any given night. This start may be cause to temper expectations a little, but certainly don’t begin panicking that his old control issues are back already.

5. Josh Hamilton

   After his monster 2012 season, many had Hamilton tabbed for a repeat performance at the heart of a scarily strong Angels line-up. I had my doubts, with his move to a bigger park and the worrying struggles at the end of 2012 the main reasons. To start the 2013 season, he is just 1-for-12 with six strikeouts, and has struggled to find his groove. He got his first hit in the game on Thursday night, when he jumped on a first-pitch fastball for a two-run single, but he looked uncomfortable at the plate. He was blown away by Chapman’s fastball, chasing pitches that were way outside the zone and generally looking just like he did in September last season when he struck out 31 times in 81 at bats. He’ll find his groove eventually, and the power stroke will come round, but like Upton you’re going to have to put up with some long droughts.

Read more from Ben over on The UK Baseball Blog and follow the blog on twitter @UKBaseballBlog.