Fantasy 5 Up 5 Down: More than meet the eye with stats

It’s tempting to think that the season is yet to truly get going, but with April already in the books, the story of the season is starting to be written either for better or worse for some players. Sure, B.J. Upton should improve from this ugly .134 batting average, but any hope that he’d hit .280+ are now all but out of the window. At the same time, whilst Carlos Santana may not hit .395 all year, this hot start will go some way towards ensuring he has a great average by the end of the season. Don’t overrate early season stats, but don’t ignore them either. With that said, which players are red hot and which players are plain not…

1. Carlos Gomez

Carlos Gomez is on a tear. Over the past 10 days, he has gone 17-for-33 with three home runs, six RBI and five steals. This is the kind of incredible streak that can single-handedly win match-ups for his owner, and is the upside that had owners drafting him early despite the eyesore average from last year. After not drawing a single walk through his first 16 games, Gomez has drawn six in his past 10 games which is an extremely promising sign from a hitter that isn’t usually very patient at all. The gaudy .372 average he now boasts is unlikely to be sustainable, but if he can keep it above .260 then the power/speed combo will leave fantasy owners very happy indeed.li>

2. David Ortiz

An achilles injury that lasted longer than expected had Ortiz underrated entering the season in my opinion, and in his time back so far he has done nothing to disprove that idea. His ridiculous .487 average leads the Majors and it’s easy to forget that before he was injured last season, he was putting up an offensive stat line that was extremely comparable to Miguel Cabrera (Ortiz had a .318 average, .415 OBP, 23 home runs, Cabrera had a .327 average, .387 OBP and 20 home runs). Ortiz will sustain an average around .300 and he still has enough power in his bat to challenge for 30 homers in an injury shortened season. Don’t let his age fool you – this is still one of the best pure hitters in the Majors.

3. Jordan Zimmerman

In the 17 innings he pitched over the past seven days, Zimmermann allowed three hits, walked one and struck out 12. Was he preying on poor opposition? Nope – he threw a complete game shutout against the Reds and backed it up with eight strong against the Braves. Zimmermann isn’t a strikeout machine, but he is just about the best in the business for your ERA and WHIP, and playing for the Nats shouldn’t hurt his win tally. He won’t have a sub-two ERA all season, but he is as reliable as they come, so I wouldn’t be selling unless you get an offer you can’t refuse.

4. Anibal Sanchez

Sanchez threw one of the greatest pitching performances of recent memory last week when he baffled the Braves for eight innings, striking out a stupendous 17 hitters on his way. As the number four pitcher in a laughably good rotation, it’s easy to forget that Sanchez is pretty good in his own right, and he followed up the 17 K domination with six strong innings against Minnesota. It might be hard to buy low after his recent performances, but I think Sanchez is in line for a big year with Detroit and could be a steal for those who drafted him.

5. Edward Mujica

Mujica took over the poisoned chalice as the 9th inning man in St Louis mid-way through April, and he hasn’t looked back since. He’s saved all seven opportunities given to him, allowing only a run in each of his past two outings. A lot of this success is due to an uptick in the use of his hard sinking change-up, which is now called on up to 60% of the time. Mujica’s stuff isn’t the best out of the Cardinals ‘pen, but he’s taking full advantage of the opportunity he’s been given.

1. Joe Mauer

If I were to give you a list of slump-proof players, Joe Mauer’s name would likely be near the top, which makes his recent form even more surprising. Over the past six games, Mauer has gone 1-for-23, although incredibly his average is still .287. This tells you everything you need to know about this mini-slump – don’t worry if Mauer is your catcher. He’ll break out of this funk soon enough and start hitting everything in sight. If you fancy buying low, then you’ll never get a better chance than this.

2. Melky Cabrera

The entire Blue Jays line-up has been struggling to score runs this season so far, but free agent signing Melky Cabrera has been as disappointing as anyone. His .235 average is a far cry from the .350 mark that led the NL last season, and he has shown little of the power/speed combo that was expected to play up at the Rogers Centre. Some owners must be thinking this loss of form is linked to his PED suspension, and whilst I think there may be some connection, Cabrera should be a lot better than this. I expect him to end the season with an average north of .280 and 15 home runs and steals, so if he’s been dropped in your league, now is a good time to snap him up, even if he’s just on our bench until he shows better form.

3. Cliff Lee

Cliff Lee hasn’t been anywhere close to his sparkling best in his past few starts, allowing a combined 26 hits and 12 runs. Perhaps as worrying as either of those stats are the six walks he allowed after giving up just one in the first three games. Lee has some of the finest control of any pitcher in the Majors, and despite this little hiccup, the season numbers are still excellent (3.46 ERA and 1.15 WHIP). He should bounce back just fine from these performances, starting with a favourable match-up at San Francisco. If his owner is panicking a little, don’t be afraid to pay good money to acquire Lee’s services.

4. Andy Pettitte

After looking nigh-on untouchable through his first few starts, Pettitte got roughed up for seven runs in just 4.1 innings against… the Astros. This jolt back to earth serves as a reminder Pettitte is not a fantasy ace, but I wouldn’t be too concerned about this blip, because as long as he’s healthy Pettitte should be a decent source of ERA, WHIP and wins. He may be a good sell high candidate when he puts in a couple of solid performances, but unless he struggles mightily in his next few starts I wouldn’t be too concerned for the time being.

5. Ernesto Friery

Whilst Frieri’s four saves and 2.19 ERA are keeping fantasy owners happy, his inability to pitch a clean inning is severely damaging his prospects of keeping the role when Madson returns. Frieri has been a walk machine this season, which goes some way to explaining the ugly 1.46 WHIP, and at some point all those runners on base are going to come back to haunt him. He still holds the closer’s role in LA, which makes him pretty undroppable, but I’d be more than happy to sell him to a save-starved owner if I could get a decent return, because I don’t see him holding on to the job all season.

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