Get it White: Week 1 NFL Predictions
Conjecture and speculation, shocks and surprises, DUI’s, PED’s and Tebow; over the past 7 months we’ve had it all. But come the beginning of September each year, it’s time for the actions of the players, coaches and GM’s to replace the noises that they have been making all summer.
Now we’re only a matter of hours away from the first kickoff of the new NFL season and it’s time for the machine that is the weekly prediction generator to chug and splutter its way back to life for its third campaign. After a respectable yet improvable season last time out, I’ve polished and replaced some of the parts, so let’s give it a bash and see how week 1 turns out, starting with an intriguing AFC matchup at Mile High.
Friday 1:30am
Baltimore Ravens 20-27 Denver Broncos
The reigning champs travel to Peyton’s house to open the 2013 NFL season, and both teams have made significant changes to their roster since being two of the AFC’s juggernauts in 2012. The loss of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed is arguably more important off the field than on it for the Ravens, whose defense are now younger and more athletic, but the loss of their big man on offense, Anquan Boldin could well leave a bigger hole. While Torrey Smith and Ray Rice are weapons, there’s not much outside that. On the other hand, Denver’s signing of Wes Welker paves the way for them to be even more explosive on offense, giving Demayrius Thomas single coverage to work against more often than not. While I am not convinced by Denver’s defense without Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil putting pressure on opposing QB’s, you can be sure Peyton will want to get the season started right in front of his own fans.
Sunday 6:00pm
New England Patriots 34-16 Buffalo Bills
After a turbulent offseason, the Pats are beginning to restore the optimism that some fans had before the whole Aaron Hernandez madness. While the roster is young (14 rookies!) it is talented and full of potential, especially on the defensive side of the ball, and the rookies on offense need to make an impact. The Bills on the other hand, don’t seem to have made major progress in many areas, apart from handing the start at RB to the obscenely explosive CJ Spiller, and with the injury to Kevin Kolb, rookie EJ Manuel looks to have the start on Sunday night. The opportunistic Pats’ defense will be chomping at the bit at that news.
Seattle Seahawks 27-13 Carolina Panthers
There’s been a lot of hype around the Seattle Seahawks this offseason, and with their dominant, physical defense, they will be tough to beat this season for sure, but without the injured Percy Harvin, I still have question marks over the passing game and with Marshawn Lynch’s injury history, things could go wrong on that side of the ball very fast. Carolina are, for me, an impossible team to predict right now. They could as easily be a 5-11 team as they could be a 10-6 team, and the Panthers and QB Cam Newton have to realise that consistency is the key to success. This weekend will provide a good opportunity for us to see where they are, and I think that could be not quite at the Hawks’ level.
Cincinnati Bengals 23-20 Chicago Bears
I’ve made no secret of the fact that I have a good feeling about Marvin Lewis’ Bengals this season. They have added well through the draft on the offensive side of the ball with explosive athletes in Tyler Eifert and Gio Bernard, and their defense is an ever-improving unit that looks solid at worst, intimidating at best. However a trip to Chicago on opening day looks a tough assignment from which we could see whether their credentials are as good as they seem. Jay Cutler is primed for a breakout season with Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennet providing a triple threat of big-bodied pass catchers, and Marc Trestman’s offensive mind sure to get the best out of Matt Forte. The Chicago defense looks as tough as ever too, and this could end up being one of the games of the weekend. The decider is the Chicago offensive line: if it’s improved, Cutler will be hassled, if it hasn’t, Cutler could be out.
Miami Dolphins 13-16 Cleveland Browns
The Dolphins have spent one hell of a lot of money this offseason, and while Mike Wallace will help QB Ryan Tannehill and the offense, and the signings of draft pick Dion Jordan and ex-Raiders linebacker Philip Wheeler will help the pressure from the front seven, it seems that the Phins haven’t addressed their biggest issues. The offensive line is poor, and the secondary needs work, two areas where the Browns will look to exploit. Brandon Weeden has looked in good touch this preseason, and will be looking to keep his purple patch going, but without his star receiver Josh Gordon, he could find things a little tougher. It wouldn’t surprise me if both 2nd year RB’s – Trent Richardson and Lamar Miller – got around 35 touches each in this one and whoever stops the run better will win the game. I’m taking the new-look Cleveland Browns at home.
Minnesota Vikings 13-34 Detroit Lions
Two undoubted superstars of the NFL face off in Detroit on Sunday night: last year’s MVP Adrian Peterson and the magnificent Calvin Johnson. The Vikings surprised many with how good they were last campaign even if AP’s brilliance dragged them there, and they will have to be even better this week to roll over the Lions. The defense has looked seriously impressive in the preseason, both pressure and coverage wise, and while the offense hasn’t fired, with CJ, Matt Stafford and Reggie Bush on the field, something will happen. I think Johnson could outgun Peterson today, and the Lions could lay down a marker for the season.
Oakland Raiders 10-41 Indianapolis Colts
So Terrelle Pryor gets the start for Oakland, it’s a shame that it is Quarterbacking what could be one of the worst teams I have seen in the league for many years. I have no doubt that Andrew Luck will take apart the Raiders in Indianapolis, it’s just a matter of how much this Oakland team will fight, because they’re going to have to all season to get anything at all.
Kansas City Chiefs 29-13 Jacksonville Jaguars
Kansas City are a team to watch this year, with more change than most teams have had during the summer, and will be looking to put last year’s shambolic efforts behind them. QB Alex Smith will look to build a rapport quickly with WR Dwayne Bowe and RB Jamaal Charles will be hoping Andy Reid can get him involved a lot more than last year. The Jags on the other hand, seem to be taking backward step after backward step, the latest being naming Blaine Gabbert their no.1 QB again. The x-factor here could be the very talented defence of the Chiefs. On paper, there is one hell of a lot to like, and if they can fulfil even half of that potential, they should have enough to win this one.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20-16 New York Jets
This is an interesting matchup between two under-pressure teams, especially on the head-coaching side. The Jets have just named Geno Smith their starter at QB due to Mark Sanchez’s injury, although I have a feeling Rex Ryan would have done that anyway, but whether that will bear any fruit in the short-term is up for debate. The Jets’ defense looks to not have fallen off too much after the loss of Darrelle Revis to today’s rivals, but there will be a difference on the back end. While Tampa have looked quite poor and disjointed in the preseason, you can’t help but feel the chaos in New York plays into their hands here and the fact that Revis comes into the team could mean that they sneak a messy win.
Atlanta Falcons 34-27 New Orleans Saints
A cracking tie to kick off the competition for the NFC South, and one thing you can be sure of is that Sean Peyton will have his team fired up big time to prove that last season’s awful defense and 7-9 record was nothing more than a blip. Drew Brees is guaranteed to once again sling the ball around, so a lot could depend on the performance of Atlanta’s rookie corners who have impressed in preseason. Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford will play a big role for the Falcons this year, and if they can hold up the other end of the bargain that Matt Ryan and the explosive offense could provide, Atlanta fans could be excited come playoff time. I just can’t have the Saints after what their D served up last year, it was really horrid.
Tennessee Titans 17-27 Pittsburgh Steelers
A battle between two teams who will be looking to do much better than last year, and to do so, will be going back to basics, running the football and playing defense. While the Titans still can’t trust Jake Locker in the passing game, the loss of Mike Wallace could have a bigger impact on the Steelers’ aerial attack. If the additions to the Titans’ offensive line make a difference, Chris Johnson could have a big role in keeping this close, but I can’t confidently bet against the Steelers’ defense on the first day of the NFL season at home, not to mention Big Ben’s playmaking ability against a defense that could still be as bad as last year.
Sunday 9:25pm
Arizona Cardinals 16-6 St Louis Rams
The first of many undoubtedly physical, tightly contested NFC West matchups this season is in St Louis where the Cardinals, with Carson Palmer newly installed at QB to the delight of Larry Fitzgerald, look to land an early blow in this tightly-contested division. The Cards’ defense should be a force this year so Sam Bradford and his rookie receiver Tavon Austin could find their first regular season assignment tough, although they do have a pretty good defense of their own to rely on. Patrick Peterson will have a say on this one, on defense, offense or special teams, the kid is a baller.
Green Bay Packers 21-31 San Francisco 49’ers
Another cracker for week 1, two of the most powerful teams in the league meet in San Francisco looking to set the tone for the year ahead. The Niners were unlucky not to win their sixth SuperBowl last year and will be straining at the leash to show the league that they haven’t gone anywhere. Colin Kaepernick, even without Michael Crabtree will be one of the best triggermen in the league this year and the Pack will have to have improved significantly to allow their offense to give them a shot at this. Aaron Rodgers is probably the no. 1 QB in the league, but he will need his offensive line, including rookie David Bakhtiari, to keep the Niners’ pass rush off him for as long as possible. I think the Niners could overwhelm that line quite early on, so Rodgers better have his skates on.
Monday 1:25am
New York Giants 24-27 Dallas Cowboys
The first divisional face-off in the NFC East is the SNF game at Jerry’s house, and the Cowboys look to be gearing up for a serious run at the playoffs. Tony Romo knows that his chances are beginning to run out, but the emergence of Dez Bryant as an exciting no. 1 receiver and the return of Miles Austin to full health should help him to put together one of his best seasons in years. On the other hand, there are more concerns over the Giants than in the past few seasons, the defense being the chief worry. Injuries and suspensions are hitting the G-Men hard, and the rookies and backups on the roster will have to step up if New York are to keep pace with their rivals in the division. Victor Cruz has signed on though, and he will be key to their chances.
Wednesday 12:10am
Philadelphia Eagles 27-34 Washington Redskins
Now then, we could well have a college football, PAC-12 style shootout here. Two mobile QB’s, two unorthodox offensive strategies and two defenses that, from last season’s evidence, still need one hell of a lot of work. RGIII’s return will be the biggest storyline coming into the game, but I have a feeling that the explosive offense of the Eagles could be the talking point coming out of it, win or lose. The coaching style of Chip Kelly seems to have given a new lease of life to Mike Vick, DeSean Jackson and LeSean McCoy, but it is defensively that the changes need to have had the biggest effect, otherwise second year Washington RB Alfred Morris could run all over them. He could do so anyway if the Eagles defense chooses to concentrate on RGIII and his mobility rather than the orthodox running game that Mike Shanahan deploys so well. There are too many questions surrounding the Eagles for me to pick them here in an exciting game.
Wednesday 3:20am
Houston Texans 37-17 San Diego Chargers
The well-fancied Texans begin their season with the late game on Tuesday night, and a trip to San Diego to take on the Chargers. Houston’s chances this year seem to have been enhanced with the return of Brian Cushing to the middle of the defense and the addition of rookie DeAndre Hopkins to Matt Schaub’s receiving corps, strengthening both sides of the ball. The signing of Ed Reed will add much needed leadership to the locker-room and if Arian Foster stays healthy and in form, this is a ball club with a serious chance to win it all. The Chargers on the other hand are in a rebuilding stage on both sides of the ball, and I would expect this result to reflect the stages where the two teams are at. Texans win to close out week 1.