MLB Playoff Preview: Atlanta Braves
2013 NL East Champions – Current Record 93-64
Offense
The Atlanta Braves offense has been a mixture of extremely impressive and extremely disappointing.
On the positive side there is Freddie Freeman. Freeman has put up most valuable player (MVP) calibre type numbers this year. Freddie is batting .315 on the year, slugging 23 home runs, driving in 106 RBIs, posting an .OBP of .393 which has contributed to an impressive .OPS of .893.
Chris Johnson has been a huge surprise. The Braves first used a platoon of Juan Francisco and Chris Johnson at third base. Johnson just continued to hit and hit some more until he eventually earned the job for himself. He is currently hitting .327, good enough for second place in the NL batting title race.
Atlanta signed BJ Upton, and traded for Justin Upton, to unite the brothers in their fantasy Baseball version of an outfield. BJ has not at all justified his $15million per year contract batting a lowly .186 with an OPS of just .561.
Second baseman Dan Uggla has also had a down year despite having 22 home runs to his name. Uggla’s batting average of .182 and lowly .OPS of .678 are more truly indicative of the year he has had.
Key Hitter: Justin Upton was brought in to add an MVP calibre bat to Atlanta’s lineup. For the first month of the season he lived up to the hype until he was sent to the disabled list with a thumb injury. On his return he was inconsistent at best, but has heated up recently. If Upton can return to his early season he could be a huge difference maker in Atlanta’s lineup, and increase their chances of a good playoff run.
Starting Pitching
The Atlanta Braves starting rotation has put together a cumulative 3.53 ERA, good enough for sixth in MLB. This is a very good achievement, considering they lost their most influential pitcher Tim Hudson in July to season ending ankle surgery. Hudson was the leader of the Braves pitching rotation. Atlanta has a very young rotation so they look to Tim as their leader and the man whose example they aim to follow.
Brandon Beachy who arguably has the most upside out of the Braves young pitching core could also be done for the season. He had Tommy John surgery on his right elbow in June 2012 only returning in just after the All-star break earlier this year. Beachy then found himself back on the DL on August 20th due to inflammation in his surgically repaired elbow. It looks like he will not be coming back for the playoffs.
One of the reasons I think the Braves will miss Tim Hudson, is that the current starting pitchers have very little postseason experience between them. Although if they can keep their regular season form going that may not be too much of a worry. Likely NLDS game 1 starter Kris Medlen has a 3.24 regular season ERA, higher than his colleagues Mike Minor (3.22 ERA) and Julio Teheran (3.09) respective ERAs.
Key Pitcher: Kris Medlen will be looking to get Atlanta off to a winning start in the playoffs. Whilst a hot start is always important for a playoff team, it becomes that bit more important for a rotation as inexperienced as the Braves. Also the Braves been sub-par on the road in the regular season but red hot at home, possibly making winning their home games even more of a necessity.
Bullpen
The Braves bullpen has also had its fair share of injuries to deal with. Lefty specialist Eric O’Flaherty was lost to season ending Tommy John surgery in May. An even worst loss for the Atlanta was the loss of electric eighth inning setup guy Jonny Venters also to Tommy John surgery in May.
Despite these issues, the Braves bullpen has been outstanding. They currently lead Baseball with an excellent cumulative 2.45 ERA.
Bullpen anchor and perennial all-star closer Craig Kimbrel has been outstanding once again with 49 saves and a miniscule 1.25 ERA. Contributions have come from pretty almost everybody. Anthony Vivaro, David Carpenter, Luis Ayala, Luis Avalan, have all pitched in at least 35 games or more and possess ERA’s of 2.76 or lower.
Key Pitcher: A key pre-requisite for a long playoff run and ultimately an appearance at a world series is a shutdown closer, and the Braves have a legitimate one of those in Craig Kimbrel.
Predictions
The Braves with one or two exceptions are a team of hackers. They are fourth in strikeouts in MLB with 1343.
While the other day I also cited this as a potential weakness of the Boston Red Sox, the Red Sox are also 2nd in MLB in .OBP which means while they strike out a lot, they also get on base a lot. Atlanta in contrast are barely above average in .OBP terms ranking a very mediocre 13th in MLB.
It’s very rare for a team to win the World Series with a very inexperienced starting pitching rotation. While he is a potential ace in the making, Kris Medlen does not have the name factor or proven record of somebody like an Adam Wainwright or a Clayton Kershaw. Having an ace who can give you a psychological edge becomes all the more important in the playoffs.
The Braves are also very much a home field team. Their regular home season record stands at a very impressive 53-23 compared to their road record which is a very disappointing 40-41.
As Kurt Schilling intimated on Baseball Tonight last week, Atlanta seems to be more of a regular season team than a postseason team.
For all of the reasons I have listed above, I feel that the Atlanta Braves are the weakest team on the NL side of the playoffs, so I would rank them 5th out of the NL teams. If they get beyond the NLDS I will be very surprised.