MLB Playoff Preview: Detroit Tigers

2013 AL Central Champions – Current Record 93-68

Offense

The Detroit Tigers main 2012 offseason move was the acquisition of Torri Hunter.  Hunter further solidified an already very solid hitting lineup featuring the likes of 2012 Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Victor Martinez.

The Tigers offense has more than met expectations being second in MLB in runs scored with 796, leading in batting average with .285 and being second in OPS with .784.

Cabrera has had another great year hitting .348, slugging 44 home runs driving in 137 RBI and putting up an OPS of 1.087.  These statistics unfortunately do not tell the whole story.  Miguel has been struggling with niggling injuries since August.  This has led to him altering his swing meaning it is more focused on hitting for contact.  The downside of this is it has cost him power.

Fielder has had a down year by his lofty standards but he has still hammered 25 home runs, driven in 106RBIs while putting up an .819 OPS.

The great surprise in the Tigers line up this year has been Torii Hunter.  Hunter has accumulated a .307 batting average while also producing 17 homeruns and 84 RBIs.  In addition, Hunter has also helped to improve Detroit’s outfield defense.

A key addition for the Tigers at the deadline was young shortstop Jose Iglesias who has simply been a defensive wizard.  ESPN’s Keith Law has rated him as the second best defensive shortstop in Baseball.

Key Hitter: Victor Martinez started the season ice cold but has heated up in the second half, especially in September.  With the possibility of Miguel Cabrera not ever getting back to 100% health during the playoffs the onus will be on others in the Tigers line up to pick up the slack.  Martinez could definitely be a difference maker.

Starting Pitching

Much like the offense the Detroit Tigers starting pitching rotation came into the season very highly rated.

The Tigers rotation currently ranks fourth in MLB in cumulative ERA with a very good 3.46, lead in strikeouts with 971 and have only allowed 84 home runs the fourth least in Baseball.

Perennial ace Justin Verlander has been subpar by his lofty standards.  His WHIP of 1.333 ranks last on the Detroit staff, while he has also averaged 3.1BB/9 also the highest on the staff.  He has pitched 212 and a third innings second on the staff and struck out 207 hitters, also accumulating a 3.56 ERA with a 13-12 record.  He seems to have been very inconsistent in terms of command this year as his stuff remains as good as it always has been.

Max Scherzer has been the biggest story of the rotation.  The electric righty was undefeated until August, and has put up an excellent 2.90 ERA to go with a 21-3 record.

Anibal Sanchez has arguably been even better than Scherzer.  Sanchez has a lower ERA (2.57) than Scherzer and also a more impressive ERA+ of 164 compared to Scherzer’s 145, although both are excellent.

A signal of the Tigers great pitching depth is Doug Fister who just may be the best fourth starter in Baseball.  He’s had a very good year in the number four slot, accruing a 14-9 record with a 3.68 record while also pitching 200 innings.

Key Pitcher: Justin Verlander is the key pitcher for me as to most pitchers the statistics he put up this season would be more than acceptable.  Verlander up to this year was regarded as possibly the best pitcher in Baseball.  It’s very possible it is just a down year for him but if Justin can find his best form in the playoffs, Detroit may just have the best pitching rotation of any team in the playoffs.

Bullpen

The one clear weakness on this Detroit Tigers team is the bullpen.  They rank a lowly 23rd in MLB with a cumulative bullpen ERA of 4.02.

Luis Marte is out for the season, Octavio Dotel is likely also out for the season, and Phil Coke could also be done for the year.  Bruce Rondon is listed as day to day after reporting elbow discomfort on September 25th.

It’s not all bad news for Detroit’s bullpen, Luke Putkonen has pitched to a 2.79 ERA, since being acquired Jose Veras has garnered a 3.20 ERA, while Drew Smyly has also helped in a big way with a 2.37 ERA.

Most crucially of all, after first trying Bruce Rondon, then bringing back Jose Valverde, the Tigers finally found a closer in Joaquin Benoit who has been outstanding.  He has converted 24 saves compared to blowing two saves whilst also putting up a 2.01 ERA.

Key Pitcher: With Phil Coke on the DL, Drew Smyly’s performance becomes all the more important as there is even more pressure than usual on situational relievers in the playoffs.  Drew Smyly has been outstanding so far, and with Coke on the side lines, he will likely become the go-to pitcher in lefty on lefty matchups.  Left handed hitters are batting a tiny .189 with a miniscule .471 OPS.

Predictions

Usually most teams who had their two best players either injured or playing below their potential might be in trouble.  Thankfully for Detroit fans their great depth both in the pitching rotation and line up means that, Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera do not have to be at their respective bests for the Tigers to be successful.

Their bullpen has been their achilles heel in the last two years and remains so again.  This places stress on the pitching rotation as it means that all the starters, may have to go seven innings each start for the motown team to be successful in the playoffs.

Despite the bullpen issues, the strength of the pitching rotation and lineup means that this team cannot be underestimated.  It is for those reasons that I would rank the Detroit Tigers as the second best AL team in the playoffs.