NFL Ones to Watch: The Bad, The Bad and The Rookie
I have no earthly idea what is happening right now, teams that should be competitive aren’t, and those that should be steam rolled are at worst 2-2. So, week four saw The Eagles fall again, Patriots won’t quit and the Steelers still have room for improvement. The Giants are a laughing stock, The Phins finally came back to earth a little bit and point differentials mean nothing.
Looking ahead to week five, three matchups that everyone will want to keep an eye on, will be Jaguars at Rams , Eagles at Giants and Ravens at Dolphins.
I’ll start with a look at the numbers between the Jaguars and the Rams.
This might strike as a little odd as whoever plays the Jags is guaranteed a W, but in October of 2009 the Jags beat the Rams by a score of 23-20. Maurice Jones-Drew was a beast that day with three rushing TDs and showed a glimpse of what was to come, as he led the NFL in rushing yards in 2011.
However, back to the present, both teams need an improved offensive effort as they rank 32nd (Jags) and 30th (Rams). It is the passing which should determine this game, and it will be in favour of the Rams 30-12 by rank. Sadly for MJD he is on the second worst ranked rush team. Both Defenses are pretty ‘solid’ apparently despite the team records. There is a small voice which says look for a low scoring game, which the Jags will win 9-7, but I’m not so sure. Whatever happens here, neither team will be anywhere near the playoffs but it is more important for the Rams to pull out the win. They do not want to slip to 1-4, which is ironic, as if the Jags pull off the impossible that will be their record. The battle of the QBs will be won by Bradford as he has 107-182 with 7 TDs on 1093 yards, while Henne has 46-82 for 512 yards and one TD. No contest. MJD does out rush the Rams though, with 138 yards off 57 carries and a TD. This is why it will be tighter than most might think.
The second game I will focus on is the similarly pathetic New York Giants as they play at home to the frustrating, but nearly pointless Eagles. Philadelphia are dead last in Defense, which is surprising, given a league with Jacksonville in it. Though with the Giants O-line not being worth much, and Eli giving the ball away for fun, they should easily cope with the Giants. The Eagles have one of the brightest, hardest to contain O-lines in the league (they rank 2nd overall) and facing off against a defence which is outside the top 20 (21), this should offset and should remain a comfortable game for the Eagles. They need a W here, as 1-4 really wouldn’t be considered an improvement over Andy Reid’s final year in which they finished at 4-12.
Michael Vick really is an important weapon for the Eagles, with both arm and legs. With 1080 (65-118) pass yards five TDs, 228 Rush yards off 26 carries and two rushing TDs, the Eagles should have this one sewn up by half-time.
The final game to watch over involves last year’s Super Bowl champions as they tackle the Dolphins on the back of their first defeat. This is intriguing to me as Miami really aren’t that fundamentally solid. Of the four major categories to rank teams, in only one category do they make the top 20 (Passing at 19th).
As is known in the world of the NFL it is a passing league, and the Dolphins are due for a regression with an unconvincing Rookie QB. Recent history between the two teams suggest that Baltimore will be all over this but this year’s rendition really aren’t that much better than Miami. Still, they are good enough to get it done, but it won’t be by much. The margin will be less than a TD in the end.
The reason, Flacco’s 97-169 for 1091 yards with five TD’s (7INT’s) out ranks Tannehill’s 93-142 for 1076 yards for five TD’s. His five INT’s are the sole reason the Dolphins will start to struggle more.
While the pick number appears to be favourable to the Dolphins, the real telling stat is yards lost after a sack. This lies at 113 from 18 sacks, and Flacco has only lost 77 from 12 sacks.