Get It White: Week 6 NFL Predictions
Although an unpredictable NFL is exactly what the fans want, with excitement and surprises every week, it is an absolute nightmare for those looking to call games beforehand. After a 13-3 week 2 slate, the past three weeks have been a very difficult period to call, and while I’ve been .500 or above, it’s proved a tough task to break that magic .750 barrier.
46-32 for the season after a 7-7 week 5 is not good enough for the high standards of the column and its followers, so when in doubt, go traditional. The formulas have been adjusted to ‘old school’ mode: Defense rules. So let’s see how week 6 could pan out: let’s hope I can turn this run around!
BYE WEEK: Falcons, Dolphins
Friday 1:25am
New York Giants 10-31 Chicago Bears
The Giants had an opportunity last week against the Eagles’ poor defense to snap their losing run. Unfortunately Eli Manning kept throwing interceptions, Brandon Jacobs fumbled the ball, and the defense didn’t stop anything. Therefore it’s very difficult to recommend anything but a convincing Chicago victory, even though they were rolled over by New Orleans last week. The defense is a turnover forcing machine, and against a team with a turnover ratio of -13, you would expect some takeaways for Charles Tillman and co. Brandon Marshall is a beast and Matt Forte is a weapon in both pass and run games, so expect Jay Cutler to get back on track. At best the G-Men keep it close-ish, at worst, this could be an horrific blowout. I never thought I’d see the Giants at 0-5, and it doesn’t look like getting any better on the road in Chicago.
Sunday 6:00pm
Green Bay Packers 27-16 Baltimore Ravens
Green Bay dominated the Lions at Lambeau in week 5, and their defensive display, even though Detroit were missing Calvin Johnson, was really encouraging. The Ravens actually won on the road. I know. Joe Flacco wasn’t that bad, and Ray Rice scored twice on the ground against the Dolphins, who will have been disappointed to lose that game. But so is the unpredictability of the NFL these days, I’m calling a worse performance from the Baltimore QB at home than on the road last week, and the Packers’ offense, with the ridiculously explosive Randall Cobb in scintillating form, to put up 400 total yards at least. The Baltimore secondary still needs work after giving up way too many big plays, and it’s offensive line will have trouble dealing with the Packers’ pass rush, even without Clay Matthews: it’s not a good combination of issues.
Cincinnati Bengals 30-6 Buffalo Bills
Much better from the Bengals in week 5: that was the type of defensive performance this team is capable of. Even though Andy Dalton wasn’t perfect against the Patriots and the Bengals struggled at times on offense, their stifling, pressuring defense was at its best, making Tom Brady look poor. Now if you read the news, the revelation that Thad Lewis will start at QB for Buffalo is not comforting for the Bills. If coach Doug Marrone believes that ‘Thad gives us the best chance to win’, then their chances can’t have been great in the first place. Expect the Cincinnati offense to snap back to form too against a hurting Buffalo D.
Detroit Lions 27-20 Cleveland Browns
Just as things looked so good for the Browns, Brian Hoyer is lost for the season with an ACL tear, but hang on, maybe this was the shock Brandon Weeden needed, as he came in and played pretty well, leading his team to a big win over the Bills. The Lions also were missing an important player in Megatron, but they couldn’t paper over that substantial crack in a loss to Green Bay, and their lack of production when their best player isn’t in the lineup is worrying for them. This Browns defense is a very good unit, and they will cause Matt Stafford problems, but I’m just not convinced that they will be able to contain the Lions offense enough for Brandon Weeden to grab a win.
St Louis Rams 13-34 Houston Texans
Matt Schaub could not have played any worse last week in the light of the criticism he has been getting, his 3 INT’s against the resurgent Niners led to him getting benched for TJ Yates, although Gary Kubiak has come out and backed his starting QB since Sunday night’s debacle. Schaub and the Texans will be eager to bounce back at home against a Rams team that, despite convincingly beating the Jags, still gave up 20 points. This St Louis defense is simply not as good as the hype and could well be shredded by Arian Foster and Ben Tate on the ground, if not, I’m sure Garrett Graham, Owen Daniels, Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins will have a big say in the result. The Rams’ offense could also have a bad day as their offensive line is not well equipped to deal with JJ Watt and company. Comfortable bounceback home win for Houston here.
Carolina Panthers 27-23 Minnesota Vikings
I was really disappointed with how the Panthers gameplanned against the Cardinals last week, and their 22-6 defeat was fully deserved in the end. Like the Ravens at the Bills, they paid the price for trying to attack over the middle of the field and with too much passing, neglecting the running game with only 16 called carries. They will be tempted to do the same against the Vikings’ secondary which is struggling this year, but they would be wise to use DeAngelo Williams who, before last week, was having a very decent season with 330 yards and 4.5 yards a carry. The Vikings have just signed Josh Freeman, so both Matt Cassel and Christian Ponder are on the hotseat, while Adrian Peterson will once again be targeted all game. This is going to be a close one, but I think that there is a lot of potential in this Panthers team, and if they can stack the box and keep AP under 100 yards, they could get a priceless road win.
Oakland Raiders 13-23 Kansas City Chiefs
I really did not see the Raiders beating the Chargers in week 5, especially in the defensively intimidating fashion they did it. Terrelle Pryor certainly gives this team a much better chance of winning, and he is developing at a rate of knots, but while his weapons and safety valves keep dropping like flies, it will become more and more difficult to perform. Now the Raiders face a scoring defense in Kansas City that has been simply awesome this year, and an offense led by Alex Smith that is the definition of efficiency. The Chiefs’ reliance on Jamaal Charles is huge and well-publicised, but it seems to make little difference, teams just can’t stop him. KC still need to get their WR’s and TE’s involved more to make sure their offense can produce even if the running game is shut down, or Charles gets injured, but I can see them coming out on top of a hard-hitting defensive battle here and going to 6-0. Not too shabby from 2-14 last season!
Pittsburgh Steelers 13-16 New York Jets
Another game where defenses will be on top, and there is a glaringly bad matchup here: New York’s excellent defensive line vs Pittsburgh’s colander of an offensive line. The Jets are a top 5 defense in this league in terms of getting to the QB, and when Big Ben has no time to throw, the rest of the Gang Green defense will shut down the Steelers’ other option: rookie RB LeVeon Bell on the ground. The Jets’ offense has been struggling too though, and the Steelers can still play some football on D, so I’m not expecting any fireworks here. I’ll take the better defense at home.
Philadelphia Eagles 20-23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
An interesting matchup in Tampa, where the explosive Eagles offense comes up against one of the better D’s in the NFC and a certain Darrelle Revis. I’m interested to see whether Revis just blankets DeSean Jackson or is moved around a bit, as the Philly offense has quite a few ways of hurting teams. LeSean McCoy will get his now standard 35 touches at least, and Tampa’s strategy should centre around stopping him. As for the Bucs’ offense, Mike Glennon faces a pretty poor defense here that gives up yards like it’s their job, and if he can avoid errors, his defense could keep this very close. I really like watching this Eagles offense, but with Nick Foles instead of Michael Vick pulling the trigger, it loses a bit of mobility, and the Bucs won’t mind that one bit.
Sunday 9:05pm
Jacksonville Jaguars 14-45 Denver Broncos
51 points for Peyton last week. 51 points for the Jags all season. This could be one of those games that looks so one sided that an upset is just round the corner… Sorry that wasn’t funny. It’s a matter of how many.
Tennessee Titans 6-27 Seattle Seahawks
Two weeks ago, you would say this could be closer than you may initially think, but now the Titans have lost Jake Locker, and the Seahawks are coming off the back of a horseshoe-shaped reality check in Indy, you would expect a major reaction at home by Seattle. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a good backup, but when the Hawks attempt to shut down Chris Johnson on the ground for most of the game, it falls on the Harvard QB’s shoulders. The matchup with Brandon Browner, Richard Sherman and co is not one you would like if you were Tennessee HC Mike Munchak. It could be a difficult evening for the boys in light blue.
Sunday 9:25pm
New Orleans Saints 27-24 New England Patriots
Tom Brady will be glad to return to Gillette Stadium after his rough outing in Cincinnati, but he won’t be so glad to see the Brees/Peyton juggernaut roll into town. This is the acid test for the Patriots’ seemingly decent defense, and they have to limit the Saints to under 27 points to have a chance here because the New Orleans defense is one of the most improved units in the league. My guess is the Pats do a Rex Ryan and try to exploit one of the weaker run defenses in the league while at the same time using the running game and play action to keep Brady upright. They will try to use as much of the clock as possible and keep the ball out of Brees’ hands, but any time the Saints’ QB has the ball, there is the potential for magic. TE Jimmy Graham is having a season for the ages and will be tough to stop, but if Rob Gronkowski makes his return, he won’t be the most talked about TE in the game. Until the game’s over and he has 120 yards and a TD that is…
Arizona Cardinals 13-22 San Francisco 49ers
Carson Palmer has improved the Cardinals’ offense, and combined with the good defense that already resided in Arizona, they are now a pretty good unit. But they will be facing a defense in San Francisco that is merciless, and if the veteran QB makes the amount of bad throws and mistakes that he has been doing, the Cardinals will be punished. The Niners have found success in going back to their hard-nosed identity on both sides of the ball, but Arizona are set up well to be competitive against this approach, and this one could be close for a long time. I just feel that if anyone is most likely to make mistakes, it’s Palmer, and he often does it at bad times, something that the Niners will benefit from, to the tune of 2 INT’s and maybe even a safety.
Monday 1:30am
Washington Redskins 20-34 Dallas Cowboys
I know he threw for 500 yards, but the simple fact is that when the game was on the line, and when he had done all of that good work to keep up with Peyton Manning, Tony Romo made an awful decision and threw a bad pick that lost his team the game from a position where he could have helped them win it. These are facts, sorry Cowboys fans. But anyway, Tony might redeem himself at home against a weak Redskins’ D coming off a bye week, while defensive co-ordinator Monte Kiffin will be horrified at conceding 51 points, and will have a plan for shutting down RGIII and Alfred Morris. It will be good to check in on Griffin’s progress, especially off a bye, and to see if he can unearth some of last season’s magic, but I think this a week or two too soon.
Tuesday 1:40am
Indianapolis Colts 30-21 San Diego Chargers
As soon as you trust Philip Rivers, they go and lose to the Raiders. Sometimes you just despair. This week they resume at home against a Colts team on a major high after their brilliant win over the Seahawks. We know that Indy can play on the road (see week 3’s 27-7 demolition of 49ers) and the Chargers’ defense seems to be slowly regressing after a strong start. Andrew Luck is playing at a ridiculously high level against some really tough defenses, so this matchup should hold no fears for him and his receiving corps, but when looking for a gamewinner, look no further than now incumbent starter at RB Trent Richardson. This could be a big game for the former no. 3 pick, and 100 yards and a TD is in no way out of the question. Rivers and the Chargers will have to take care of the football better against a decent Colts D, or they could find themselves on the other end of a hiding.