AL Wildcard Play In Game Preview: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers

On a very dramatic final day of the 2013 season the Cleveland Indians advanced to the American League wildcard game by virtue of a 5-1 win over the Minnesota Twins.

The Tampa Bay Rays won a dramatic 7-6 game against the Toronto Blue Jays. The Rays scored six runs in the first inning, adding an extra run later while Toronto fought valiantly to the point of having the go ahead run on base in the eighth inning. Fernando Rodney was not solid by any means but did just enough to see Tampa to victory by getting the final four outs.

For six innings, the Los Angeles Angels and the Texas Rangers played a very close game with Texas leading 3-2. Texas then took control with some key hits including home runs from Adrian Belte and Geovany Soto to eventually triumph 6-2.

This meant that Texas and Tampa finished tied for the second wildcard spot with identical records of 91-71.

Starting Pitching

Tampa Bay will send its ace pitcher David Price to the mound. Price is 9-8 with a 3.39 ERA on the year. In his last four starts, the big lefty has only allowed two earned runs per start, although the outings have varied from between 5 and a third innings to seven innings. David has shown excellent control only walking four hitters in those starts while striking out 25 hitters in just 26 and a third innings.

In his most recent outing, Price pitched seven very good innings against the Yankees, striking out eight, allowing 0 walks although he did give up a home run. Price has not had a successful history against the Rangers accruing a 1-2 record with a 4.45 ERA between 2010 -2012 against them in five starts, he has not started against them in 2013. Texas also as a team bats .318 against the Rays ace, with a very impressive .929 .OPS.

The Rangers will probably counter with Martin Perez. Perez holds a record of 10-5 with a 3.55 ERA in 19 starts. In his last three starts, Martin has surrendered no more than three runs per start. Over those three starts he has also walked 7 hitters in 19 innings while striking out 14.

His previous start was against the Houston Astros, allowing three runs in seven innings whilst striking out eight. Perez has only faced the Rays once in his young career allowing two earned runs and seven hits in a five inning no decision in 2012.

Lineups

Tampa’s offense has been inconsistent all year. They are ranked 12th in MLB in runs scored with 688, 12th in batting average with .257 although they rank a more respectable 7th in MLB with a .737 OPS.

The two key hitters in the offense are without a doubt Evan Longoria and Wil Myers.

Longoria is so important that one could argue that the Rays will only go as far as he can take them. He leads the team in both homeruns with 31 and RBIs with 85. Myers is known as one of the top prospects in the game and has been extremely productive for the time he has played this year. He has hit 13 HRs and driven in 52 RBIs in just 364 plate appearances. His .827 OPS is second to only Longoria’s (.831)

The big news for Texas will be the activation of the formerly suspended Nelson Cruz.

After 2012 Texas was shorn of key contributors such as Mike Napoli and Josh Hamilton. This meant that extra pressure was placed on the likes of Adrian Beltre and Nelson Cruz to be productive. Texas lie 7th in MLB batting average with .262, 8th in home runs with 174 and 9th in OPS with .735. In 2012 the Rangers ranked 2nd with 245 home runs, 3rd with a .273 batting average and 2nd in OPS with .780.

Texas has also adapted to having less power, by using the running game more. In 2012 they only stole 91 bases, but raised this number to 146 in 2013.

Beltre has been extremely productive hammering 29 home runs and driving in 91 RBIs with an excellent .875 OPS.

Nelson Cruz missed the last 50 games of the regular season due to his Biogenesis related suspension but he will be reactivated in time for today’s game and he has also been taking batting practice. Before his suspension he had slugged 27 home runs, while also producing 76 RBIs.

AJ Pierzynski and Mitch Moreland have also helped the cause contributing 17 home runs/70 RBIs and 23 home runs and 60 RBIs respectively. Midseason signing Alex Rios has done a bit of everything hitting 6 home runs, driving in 25 RBIs while also stealing 16 bases.

Despite the contributions of Moreland/Pierzynski and Rios the Rangers have badly missed Cruz’s production.

Prediction

Both teams are very hot right now holding identical records of 8-2 since September 20th. A worrying trend for the Rangers though is a key number of their wins have come against just two teams. They are 32-6 against the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Angels while being 59-65 versus everybody else.

Tampa are 40-41 on the road, while the Rangers have been good at home with a record of 46-35.

In a lot of ways Texas could be considered favourites right now to win this game, i.e. their home record, their past dominance of David Price and also the Rangers have the fresher bullpen of the two teams right now.

I, for some reason just can’t look past Tampa, Joe Madden will have a plan, and regular season dominance of an individual pitcher sometimes does not translate into post season dominance.

Plus also thanks to Madden the Rays also are a great intangibles team, which can make all the difference in the playoffs.

• The game will take place at 8:07pm EST in the USA, 1:07am on Monday night/early Tuesday morning in the UK.