And then there were eight
Well here it is, October ball. September was a cruel mistress for Boston and Atlanta, who were all but certainties to still be playing when August ended, as they suffered brutal collapses and threw away their chances.
We’re now left with eight teams and some great match-ups, The brackets are set and the battle lines are drawn for another tilt towards the title. Let’s break down the divisional rounds:
Tampa Bay Rays – Texas Rangers
After a mighty battle to reel in the Red Sox you wonder just how much Tampa have left in the tank.
If the regular season is a good yardstick then this will be the tightest of all the series. The Rangers took the regular season series 5-4, indicating we’re in for a close battle.
Evan Longoria, the walk-off hero of game 162, has heated up after a slow start and is finally looking like the All-Star he is, while they Rays have perhaps the best 1-5 starting rotation in the AL. David Price, the ace of the staff, has been shaky in September, failing to win any of his 6 starts, but he’s backed up by impressive rookies Jeremy Hellickson (my AL rookie of the year) and Matt Moore who throws an easy 97mph heater.
As for Texas, we all know about the big bats of Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz. The defending AL champions will look to ride those bats, and catcher Mike Napoli who has been red hot in the second half, turning this line-up from menacing to down-right terrifying. There’s no Cliff Lee to fall back on this year either so the starting rotation, which has been pleasantly surprising for Texas this year, will need to bring everything they’ve got.
The Rangers can also shorten games with a deadly bullpen. They are the big favourites in this series and I expect a win in 4. But if the Rays can get back to the Trop with a win under their belt you never know.
Detroit Tigers – New York Yankees
Both sides have had their division wrapped up for a while now, and as a result have been able to line up their starting rotation and rest the necessary players.
The key to this series is Justin Verlander. The clear AL Cy Young winner, and potential MVP, will pitch game 1 for Detroit, and potential game 4 or 5 too. If the Yankees can get the victory against him (perfectly possible as they start CC Sabathia against him) you can easily see Detroit’s moral disappearing. Verlander has been so important, so vital to them all season that if they don’t win game 1 with him you sense their heads will drop.
As for the Yankees, their rotation isn’t particularly battle-hardened behind Sabathia and could well suffer from the hot bats of Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez. Rookie Ivan Nova has been a roller coaster all year along with the oft-injured Phil Hughes and AJ Burnett.
Every bone in my body wants the Tigers to win this, but I can only see a Yankees victory. The back-end of their bullpen is fantastic and well rested.
St. Louis Cardinals – Philadelphia Phillies
October is where the grand plan comes to fruition. Roy Halladay (19-6, 2.35ERA), Cliff Lee (17-8, 2.40ERA) and Cole Hamels (14-9, 2.79ERA) are all lined up and ready to pitch while St. Louis’ ace, Chris Carpenter, had to pitch on Wednesday night meaning he won’t be available until game 2 or 3. By that time all might be lost.
After a slow start the great Albert Pujols is back. He hit .355 in September with 5 homers and 20 RBI’s to help the Cards make the play-offs, and were he to put up impressive numbers in October, and add a 2nd ring to his collection, his price tag this winter will go up again.
The Cardinals have been lacking a real closer all season and the bullpen instability will be an issue. The Phillies could only need 1 run to win every game with that rotation of theirs, so Tony La Russa will need to manage his ‘pen carefully and not leave a guy out there too long.
The only thing stopping the Phillies could be themselves. There’s a lot of pressure on them as the clear favourites . There’s no revenge match-up with San Francisco to be had, and no bitter divisional foe with Atlanta’s crumble, so the path is as clear as it could be. They just have to get the job done.
Arizona Diamondbacks – Milwaukee Brewers
It’s difficult not to root for both teams here.
The Diamondbacks have a sneaky-good offense, they were 4th in the NL in runs scored with Justin Upton leading the team in homers (31), RBI’s (88) and average (.289). The individual numbers are not impressive, but they grind out runs, having scored 10 more this year than the Brewers who have 4 guys with 20 or more homers and 2 with 100+ RBI’s.
In terms of pitching however the advantage is definitely with the Brewers. Outside of Ian Kennedy the D’Backs lack reliable starters while the Brew-Crew have them in plenty. Zack Greinke and Yovani Gallardo are a good 1-2 punch and on their day Shaun Marcum and Randy Wolf are as trick a 3-4 as you’ll find (outside of Philly). Throw in the superstar bats of Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder.
The only fly in the ointment could be Milwaukee’s trouble on the road. They are the only play-off team to be below .500 on the road (39-42) so if Arizona can make it back home at 1-1 they’re in with a good chance of taking the series.
Still, I can’t see past the Brewers here. They have too much power and good pitching not to win 3 out of 5. And it would certainly make for an enthralling NLCS if they match their bats against the big arms of Philly.
Follow Toby Durant on twitter @TDonSport
