Can Maddon top the big two and take Rays to third consecutive post-season?

The 2011 season was a remarkable one for the Rays, as they came from nowhere to claim a second consecutive post-season berth, thanks in no small part to a complete meltdown in Boston. Now, it would be inaccurate to suggest that the name was the problem, but since Tampa Bay ditched the Devil and became the good old Rays for the 2008 season, they have a .568 winning percentage, as opposed to a woeful .398 in the decade prior to the move.

I guess that’s what having the likes of David Price, Evan Longoria and B.J. Upton will do to a franchise though. Last season was all about the pitching, as the team finished second in the A.L. with a 3.58 ERA, a figure that was remarkably bettered by 60% of the starting rotation. Despite the prowess of Longoria and Upton, along with Carlos Pena hopping back down Tampa way, the success of the Rays will fall mainly on the ability of a very stellar starting rotation. If they can stay healthy and repeat their 2011 form, the Rays have a genuine chance of claiming the East.

IN : Brian Augenstein (RP – St.Louis), Burke Badenhop (RP – Miami), Chris Gimenez (C – Seattle), Jeff Keppinger (INF – San Francisco), Josh Lueke (RP – Seattle), Jose Molina (C – Toronto), Carlos Pena (INF – Chicago Cubs), Will Rhymes (INF – Detroit), Fernando Rodney (RP – L.A. Angels), Luke Scott (OF – Baltimore)

OUT : Russ Canzler (INF – Cleveland), Lance Cormier (RP), Juan Cruz (RP – Pittsburgh), Jonny Damon (OF), Rob Delaney (RP – Miami), Mike Ekstrom (RP – Colorado), John Jaso (C – Seattle), Dan Johnson (INF – Chicago W.S.), Casey Kotchman (INF – Cleveland), Justin Ruggiano (OF), Adam Russell (RP – Atlanta), Kelly Shoppach (C – Boston), Andy Sonnanstine (SP – Chicago Cubs)

Catchers : The first and second choice catchers from last year have left, being replaced by Jose Molina. At 36 years old, the former Blue Jay may find himself the genuine number one for the first time in his long career, but don’t expect anything other than solid defence and a weak bat. Behind him on the depth chart are a trio of inexperienced 27 year olds in Jose Lobaton (22 career games), Robinson Chirinos (20 career games), and Stephen Vogt (0 career games). Chris Gimenez is a non-roster invite with slightly more experience, which may give him a decent shot at a contract.

Infielders : The sole change to the infield starters is Carlos Pena returning to Tampa to replace Casey Kotchman. Pena revived his career during his previous spell and is the franchise leader in homers, currently sitting on 144. Infield partners Evan Longoria and Ben Zobrist are also in the top seven of that list, showing just how dangerous a line-up the Rays have. Zobrist is a super utility player that has spent a large portion of his career in the outfield, but is expected to play second base this year, while Longoria has received three All-Star call-ups and is still only 26. The battle for shortstop is going to be a big storyline during March with Reid Brignac and Sean Rodriguez set to duke it out, but in truth, neither player is much more than average. Jeff Keppinger and Elliot Johnson will provide depth, but weak bats, off the bench. Juan Miranda, the former Yankee, and Will Rhymes are experienced non-roster invites that could force their way into the reckoning.

Outfielders : B.J. Upton is the heart of the outfield, and can provide speed, pop and, on occasion, bone-headedness. He is coming off a season in which he hit 23 dingers and stole 36 bases and will be entering his sixth season as the starting centre fielder. Matt Joyce, who was the DH last year, and Desmond Jennings are his likely partners. Joyce was second on the team with a .277 AVG, while Jennings stole 20 bases as a back-up player in his rookie season. Sam Fuld could still have a say in the starting places, but could prove a lethal option off the bench with his speed and defensive capabilities. Brandon Guyer saw action in just 15 games in his rookie campaign, but two of his eight hits were homers. Zobrist will likely see time in the outfield too this season, as that is one area in which the Rays are a bit thin.

Designated Hitter : Luke Scott has been signed from Baltimore to be the primary DH, although he can also play the outfield and allow the likes of Joyce and Zobrist to take that role every so often. The 33 year old is coming off an injury hit year, but, if healthy, should be good for 20 homers, having reached that number each of the previous three seasons.

Starting Pitchers : The Rays have six very good pitchers challenging for the five spots on the rotation. The front three, David Price, James Shields and Jeremy Hellickson all appear set and are coming off a season in which they recorded a combined 3.08 ERA in 662.2 innings. More of the same will be required for the Rays to top the division. Despite the impressive pitching, their win-loss ratio was poor (41-35), suggesting that the run support will need to increase. Matt Moore is considered by many as the best pitching prospect in the game, having struck out 15 batters in 9.1 innings last season. While the front office may want him to start in the Minors, he may force the issue with a strong Spring. Wade Davis and 6’9’’ Jeff Niemann are both decent back end of the rotation options and could be in a duel for the final spot. Alex Cobb went 3-2 with a 3.42 ERA in nine starts as a rookie last year, but barring injuries, will start in the Minors following surgery.

Relief Pitchers : Kyle Farnsworth will retain his role as the closer following a 2.18 ERA season in which he converted 25 of 31 saves. The 35 year old had the best year of his career, in which he was also named as Opening Day closer for the first time. The bullpen was often shaky, but set-up man Joel Peralta was solid. His .188 AVG against and .092 WHIP were both teams bests. Fernando Rodney joins from the Angels, but his ERA has been the wrong side of 4.00 for five consecutive seasons. J.P. Howell and Jake McGee will be the lefties, but combined for a woeful 5.37 ERA last season. Brandon Gomes will likely see significant time, presuming everything goes to plan. Although he struggled in the post-season, a sub 3.00 ERA as a rookie is never a bad thing. New signings Burke Bradenhop and Josh Lueke are 6’5’’ righties with decent fastballs. The former also has the ability to be a long reliever or spot starter, while Lueke will be aiming to better a poor rookie campaign in Seattle. Meanwhile, the likes of Cesar Ramos and Alexander Torres will be aiming to make the roster decisions tricky for Maddon and the rest of his front office.

PREDICTION : As talented as they are, it’s difficult to see Price, Shields and Hellickson all record ERAs close to 3.00 again, although young Matt Moore has the potential to step up should one of them falter. An inconsistent bullpen cost many numerous wins last season and that will need to be stamped out if the Rays are to top the East. They do have a line-up that can score runs though, but I still see them finishing third behind the Yankees and Red Sox.