Championship Sunday predictions
AFC Championship:
Sunday 8:00pm
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots
I’m pleased to say that this was my pre-season pick for the AFC Championship, but now it’s here, I am finding it hard to separate the sides.
The keys to this game will be whether each respective defence can slow down the opposition’s best weapons. Baltimore will have to slow down Tom Brady, while the Patriots must find a way to stop Ray Rice running all over them.
The Ravens have history of beating the Patriots when it matters, and Terrell Suggs, Ed Reed, Ray Lewis and Haloti Ngata will have to again play at an extremely high level if they are to give their offense a chance to keep up with Brady and his two inhuman tight ends, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.
Suggs is a one-man pass rush at the moment, and Ngata will have to pick up his level to help the veteran, who has 14 sacks this year. Despite the Patriots’ offensive line being banged up, it has still played at a very high level, with rookie Nate Solder having a highly impressive season at RT. However, it will not man handle the Ravens defensive line like the Texans did last week.
In the secondary, if there are any doubts over Lewis and Reed losing a yard, then it will show up this weekend, but I have a feeling that it won’t.
Defensively, the Patriots played light years better last week against Tim Tebow’s Broncos, but they will face a more traditional offense this week, and crucial to their chances will be how they try and stop Ray Rice. If they can at least slow the Rutgers man down, they will have an excellent chance of winning this game.
Joe Flacco just doesn’t look like a franchise QB to me, but no doubt Cam Cameron will try and assault the Patriots poor secondary, so look for Anquan Boldin to be involved often, and Torrey Smith to be able to rip off a few big gains.
In terms of picking this game, so much rests on the ‘ifs’ of stopping Ray Rice and Tom Brady that I have to go with the team that I think will score more points. At home, New England are a much tougher team than on the road, and if Flacco turns the ball over more than once, I don’t think the Ravens’ defense can hold the Pats to a score that Ray Rice can beat. The Pats will put up a decent defensive effort and that should be enough to take them to Indianapolis.
Verdict: Baltimore Ravens: 23-27 New England Patriots
NFC Championship:
Sunday 11:30pm
New York Giants @ San Francisco 49’ers
What incredible games we had in the NFC last week, and this encounter could prove just as tantalising, with the high intensity 49’ers and the explosive Giants going at it at Candlestick Park.
This game could rest on the pass rush of both teams and the effectiveness of it. If the Giants can get their DE’s creating havoc, the 49’ers will have issues, as has been proven this season when teams with a good pass rush (Ravens) have causes real panic in the San Francisco offense.
The Giants’ offensive line hasn’t been great this year, while exactly the opposite has to be said about Aldon Smith and the 49’ers pass rushing. Smith is a real star, and if he can make Eli Manning move out of the pocket, he could be prone to making the kind of mistakes we haven’t seen over the last few weeks.
The thing with the Giants is that you have to feel that they have a bad game in them somewhere; you don’t get to 8-8 without having some problems with your team. While they have improved with every game in the playoffs, there is a mistake or two in Eli, and a busted coverage for Vernon Davis to exploit.
Speaking of Vernon Davis, expect the G-men to bracket him all day long, and bring a lot of blitzes to slow down Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter. If Michael Crabtree really is a number one or number two receiver in the NFL, he is going to have to make a few catches in this game.
Obviously this rests on Alex Smith being given the time to throw to his targets, so the San Francisco offensive line will have to protect the former no. 1 draft pick from the tentacles of Jason Pierre Paul and Osi Umenyiora.
Defensively, if the 49’ers can play with the same intensity as they did against the Saints, then no team in the league will be able to cope with it initially, but as we saw, later in the game, Drew Brees was able to make plays.
The Giants won’t be able to run on the 49’ers, no-one can, and it was when Ahmad Bradshaw was out and the Giants’ running game disappeared, that they really struggled. I think this could prove the key in this game, because if the 49’ers can make the Giants one dimensional, they become a lot easier to beat. The San Francisco secondary will have to play another great game, but I think they will make one big play in this game, a pick six or a late interception near their own goal line.
Verdict: New York Giants 20-24 San Francisco 49’ers
