Charlie’s News at Five: 27th April 2013

1. The Colorado Rockies are top of the NL West

Before the season started, no analysts chose the Colorado Rockies to even win a wildcard berth, but their record is 14-8 thus far. Colorado’s offense has always been the strongest part of the team. The Rockies offense ranks second in all of MLB with 117 runs and leads MLB in hits with 213. Troy Tulowitzki has been his usual MVP candidate self, batting a .300 average, while slugging six home runs and driving in 18 RBIs in just 21 games. To demonstrate the monstrous depth of Colorado’s line up, Willin Rosario, Carlos Gonzalez, Dexter Fowler and Michael Cuddyer also have hit at least four home runs and driven in 12 RBIs each.

The Rockies starting pitching so far has a 4.26 ERA. The bullpen has been averaging a 3.68 ERA, led by closer Rafael Betancourt. Betancourt has a 1.74 ERA and has converted all 7 of his save chances so far.

To most teams a 4.26 cumulative starting ERA would be bad. The Rockies can live with it thanks to the offense being so elite, and the back of the bullpen being solid. The Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Giants all have better starting rotations and bullpens. Unfortunately career stats do not tend to lie, so I believe the Rockies will fall back as their starters cumulative ERA increases, but 85 wins could well be possible.

2. Milwaukee brews up a nine game winning streak

Curt Schilling of ESPN, and bloody sock fame, was the only analyst to pick the Milwaukee Brewers as a contender in the offseason and so far he looks like a genius. Just prior to the winning streak, the Brewers offense had failed to score for a franchise record 32 straight innings. Suddenly, they got hot, in his last 10 games Ryan Braun has six home runs and 20 RBIs. Jean Segura has batted .356 in his previous 10 games, and Carlos Gomez has also helped the cause by hitting .324 in the last 10. This winning streak was also a great achievement, as Corey Hart and Aramis Ramirez, the two best Brewers hitters after Ryan Braun, are both currently on the DL. After being caught drink driving on 16th April, Yovani Gallardo has been lights out, winning both his starts and allowing just five runs in 12 and two-thirds innings pitched. Kyle Losch has pitched well, allowing a 2.52 ERA in four starts. Jim Henderson has also been lights out pitching a 0.90 ERA since replacing the struggling John Axford as closer. The Brewers winning streak ended on Wednesday in a close fought 2-1 loss to the Padres.

This winning streak may have already been the highlight of Milwaukee’s 2013 season. The Cardinals, Pirates and Reds look stronger on paper and have more depth, especially in terms of their pitching rotations. A winning record for the season could be a good achievement for the starting pitching starved Brewers.

3. Bryce Harper – A phenom unleashed

Despite winning the NL rookie of the year award in 2012, Harper still had his doubters. He was streaky, and by the end of the season showed a weakness in his swing by being unable to hit off speed pitches on the outside of the plate.

Harper also struggled in the postseason, only hitting 3-for-23 against the St. Louis Cardinals in the NLDS. Some analysts predicted Bryce would have a sophomore or second year slump. Instead, Harper has put up astounding numbers; tied 3rd for hits in the NL with 28, 2nd in the NL with 8 home runs, 3rd in batting average with .364, and he tops the NL with a ridiculous 1.200 OPS. Harper has already showed that he can make adjustments. Earlier this week he was stuck in a mini 0-for-10 slump. He figured his way out of it by going 4-for-5 and clobbering two home runs in the same game. It looks like he will slaughter his output of a .270 batting average, 22 home runs and 59 RBIs which won him the NL rookie of the year award last year.

There are very few five tool players in baseball, Bryce Harper is definitely one of them. He plays aggressively and he already has a veteran’s instinct at the plate. Harper has all the tools to be one of the best of his generation, but could he go even further and be one of the best thirty hitters of all-time?

4. The return of “Papa Grande”

After the end of last season, it looked like Jose Valverde was finished as a Detroit Tiger.

Going a perfect 49 for 49 in save opportunities in 2011, things went badly wrong for Valverde in 2012 blowing five saves, saving 35 games in 40 chances, while also posting a 3.78 ERA. That was the worst ERA he has posted, since he became a full time closer in 2007. This was also followed up by two ugly outings in the postseason. Bruce Rondon was meant to be the Tigers closer in 2013 but was sent to Triple A after showing command issues in spring training. This led Detroit to using a “closer by committee” strategy which badly failed. The Tigers bullpen blew four saves, in its first seven chances. Papa Grande signed a minor league deal with Detroit in early April, and was signed to a major league deal on Wednesday. Valverde notched his first save with a solid 1-2-3 inning on Wednesday night.

The only weakness that the Tigers were perceived to have in the offseason was at closer. Whether Jose is the solution is yet to be seen. It is clear that he is the best alternative for the present. I believe that once the Tigers believe Bruce Rondon is ready to step up and be the closer, it will be his spot to lose.

5. The Blue Jays have yet to take flight

Much fancied as world series contenders at the beginning of the year, the Blue Jays are currently 9-14 and have so far failed to live up to the hype. The highly powered Blue Jays offense featuring twin big hitters Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista has yet to get into gear. In fairness they have been somewhat hit by injuries, Brett Lawrie just got off the DL recently, and Jose Reyes was hitting well until he unfortunately ended up on the DL until probably after the all-star break. They are hitting for power as an offense, ranking 4th in MLB with 28 home runs, but Toronto’s offense ranks a below average 18th in terms of RBIs with 82, and 29th in batting average with an incredibly low .224.

As bad as the Blue Jays offense is, the starting pitching, is arguably even worse. Reigning NL Cy Young award winner R.A. Dickey is 2-3 with a 4.66 ERA, J.A. Happ is the only Toronto starting pitcher to have an ERA under 4.00 (3.68). Jays’ starters rank 26th in MLB with an awful 5.34 ERA.

The one bright spot for the birds so far, has been the bullpen, which has pitched to a very good 2.98 ERA. No reliever who has pitched more than 5.0 innings for Toronto so far has an ERA above 3.00. Closer Casey Janssen has converted all 6 of his save chances, and has posted a miniscule 1.13 ERA.

Unlike the Angels who I featured last week, I do see a way back for the Blue Jays. Simply put, Toronto’s starting rotation and offense are just too good to stay this cold for much longer. Despite the slow start, the Blue Jays are still very much contenders.

and one more thing…

Ever wondered which team has the most fun clubhouse? In the past week, the Rays clubhouse has been visited by a DJ, a magician, a cockatoo and two penguins. Who said Baseball players don’t know how to have fun? Well played, Joe Maddon.