Divisional playoff weekend predictions

Ok, I’ll admit it; nearly everything I said last week was completely wrong. But rest assured this week’s predictions will be bang on… ish.

Wild Card Weekend was incrediBOW, TEBOWtastic, fantasTEBOW, but can the left hand of God do it again? Welcome to the Divisional round.

Saturday 9:30pm

New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers

The Saints comfortably rolled over the Lions in the Wild Card game, but now they will have to contend with a team set up completely differently. The 49’ers are arguably the league’s best chance to prove that defense wins championships, but they will face an extremely stiff task shutting down Drew Brees.

The San Francisco rush defense is undoubtedly the best in the NFL, so expect the Saints to employ screens and end arounds as a substitute for an orthodox running game that has been doing well recently, but will be stopped. It has been possible to pass on the 49’ers though, and there is no better team in the league doing that right now than New Orleans.

There are still question marks however over the Saints’ defense; their secondary is suspect at times, hidden well by defensive co-ordinator Gregg Williams’ strategy of blitzing defensive backs a lot of the time, and their run defense hasn’t been as good as they thought it would be after the offseason addition of ex San Francisco run stuffer Aubrayo Franklin.

And then there is the old question about whether Brees and the Saints are as good outside on grass fields as they are inside their Superdome. Unfortunately for the 49’ers, it looks like the conditions will be set fair, so it is unlikely to make that much of a difference.

Right now, there is no team playing better than the Saints, and while San Francisco can slow their offense down to some extent, the Niners’ own offense just doesn’t seem to have enough potency to keep up. Alex Smith will have to have the best game of his career if he wants to play in an NFC Championship game, but I’ll go with the Saints and one of the best offenses the league has seen.

Verdict: New Orleans Saints 30-20 San Francisco 49’ers

Sunday 1:00am

Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots

Last week, the great Pittsburgh Steelers defensive co-ordinator Dick LeBeau dared Tim Tebow to beat his team through the air. So he did. Yes the Steelers were banged up, but no matter how much you are a Tebow hater, he threw some really nice passes and Demayrius Thomas was a beast.

This week though, Tebowmania comes to Foxboro’, and faces its stiffest task, keeping up with Tom Brady and a Patriots team that beat the Broncos 41-23 at Mile High.

Ok, the Patriots defense is one of the worst I have ever seen, but playing against the Broncos actually suits New England a little bit, because they can’t defend the pass anyway, so why not take chances one on one against an Eric Decker-less receiving corps, and bring more bodies to pressure the QB.

Speaking of injuries, the Patriots are beginning to get players back (Pat Chung S, Brandon Spikes LB) while the Broncos are struggling with Brian Dawkins S looking doubtful with a neck injury and Elvis Dumervil DE missing practice time with an ankle injury. Dawkins could be the biggest loss, as the Broncos have struggled to stop TE’s, and without him, their chances of keeping Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez quiet are greatly reduced.

Denver’s game plan will revolve around getting pressure to Tom Brady, and with New England’s ageing, banged up offensive line, it is a possibility, so look for Brady to offload quickly on slants and screens to Wes Welker.

New England will have to stop falling two or three TD’s behind early though, like they have done in the past few games, because in the playoffs, it’s unlikely that teams will let them off the hook for a slow start.

While the Broncos will score points (everyone does against the Pats) I just can’t see Denver being able to get enough pressure to Brady to stop him throwing for 300+ yards and 30+ points, so this is where Tebowmania ends for this season.

Verdict: Denver Broncos 27-34 New England Patriots

Sunday 6:00pm

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens

The Texans were very impressive in their defeat of Cincinnati last week, with the defense looking good, and Andre Johnson fit and firing at WR, but they will have to step it up again on the road in Baltimore.

This Baltimore defense, with Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, Haloti Ngata and Ed Reed, is possibly the most talented in the league, but they do have worries at corner, and this is something that TJ Yates and Andre Johnson will look to exploit. However, the run defense has always been strong, and Arian Foster and Ben Tate will have to find a way to pound the ball past a defense coming off of a rest week.

Offensively, the Ravens’ plan revolves around Ray Rice, and whether the Texans allow him as much space as they did in the first meeting between the two, a 29-14 win for Baltimore, when he went for 161 total yards on 28 touches.

If the Texans can slow down the man from Rutgers, they will then have to deal with Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith. Boldin hauled in 8 receptions for 132 yards in the last game between these two, and with Joe Flacco playing in his first ever home playoff game, it won’t be an easy task.

I think this one could come down to one or two explosive plays, and whether Flacco really is the franchise calibre QB that the Ravens need to take them all the way. Houston are an improving young team, and when Matt Schaub returns next season, they will become a real force, but I think this game is just one too far for them this year.

Verdict: Houston Texans 19-23 Baltimore Ravens

Sunday 9:30pm

New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers

Many Packers fans are very worried about this game. It is a matchup nightmare for the reigning Super Bowl champs, and with the defensive performance the Giants put in last week, Packers fans have every right to be afraid.

The deciding factor in this game will be the effectiveness of the Giants’ pass rush. Green Bay’s line has been banged up all year, and Aaron Rodgers has had to be on the move more than he would like. If Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora can get on the field together and get to Rodgers, the Pack could be in for a difficult evening.

If Green Bay can get James Starks back, it will be a huge plus, helping Ryan Grant to keep the New York defense honest and take some heat off of their QB, but it is the New York running game that is more important. Green Bay haven’t been great defensively against the run or pass, and if Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs can start pounding down the field, the Giants could cause an upset.

Offensively, the Packers are awesome, with Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, Donald Driver and Jermichael Finley giving Rodgers an excellent core of receivers to throw at. Also important will be the fact that Green Bay have their two bookend tackles playing for the first time since October. The question remains whether Chad Clifton and Brian Bulaga are going to be 100% fit, but it is a boost for the Pack none the less.

Eli Manning has had a great season, and the Packers have been poor against opposing QB’s, but against the defense with the most takeaways this year, Manning’s distribution will have to be pinpoint to his triple threat of receivers, Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham.

If you look at this game on paper, if the Giants’ defense can play at the level that it did last week when it held a potent Atlanta offense to just TWO points, New York have a real shot at beating the Packers, but you always have to feel that Green Bay will step up when it is needed, and have a big performance in them, and a big performance is what they will need.

The death of Packers’ offensive co-ordinator Joe Philbin’s 21 year old son will also add fuel to the Green Bay fire, and the emotion could carry them to the NFC Championship game.

Verdict: New York Giants 27-31 Green Bay Packers