Fantasy 5 Up 5 Down: Blurred lines of fantasy and reality

With the All-Star break now just a couple of weeks away, we’re around half way through the season and teams both in the major leagues and fantasy leagues probably have an idea of how they’re doing. And as major league teams use trades to address their needs, so should fantasy owners. If a player on the trading block could help your team, make a move for him, and also watch for real life trades, as a move from Chicago would boost Garza’s chances at wins, but maybe cause another player to drop out of a rotation. Which guys should be on your fantasy radar this week?

1. Hanley Ramirez

Even before Ramirez injured himself in the WBC, I was writing him off in the pre-season. After being an elite shortstop in 2009, he had put together three straight seasons of mediocrity and was continuing to command a high draft pick. His speed had diminished, the average seemed to be no higher than .270 and his chequered injury history made him as much of a gamble as anyone. After returning from injury, Ramirez has been tearing the leather off the ball in LA, hitting .413 this season with seven homers and four steals. I’m still a little sceptical, but Ramirez owners have to be ecstatic with his production so far.

2. Eric Hosmer

I was a believer in Hosmer’s bounce-back heading into this season, but even the staunchest supporter will have been troubled by his first few months. The average was fine, around .270 but he was providing no power, and the sweet-swinging first baseman that scouts raved about in the minors appeared to be gone. However, since George Brett’s entrance as hitting coach, Hosmer’s turnaround has been dramatic, as he hit .303 with six homers in June and has gotten off to a red-hot start in July. I think Hosmer can be an elite fantasy option for the rest of the season, and if his owner is looking to sell, I’d be happy to pay a bit over the odds for his services.

3. Matt Garza

Garza was seen as a huge trade chip entering the season, but after he suffered yet another injury in April, trade rumours were put on the back-burner. However, after returning he has slowly rounded into form, and is now starting to pitch like an ace, with three earned runs allowed over his past 30 innings. Garza has good strikeout rates and is going deep into games, and any trade would presumably increase the likelihood he’ll get wins. His overall numbers still aren’t dominant, so if an opportunity arises to grab him, make sure you do so.

4. John Lackey

Lackey was a sleeper on very few draft sheets entering the season, and after injuring his bicep in his first start, things seemed to be getting only worse. However, after returning, Lackey has been superb with a 2.81 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, and he has allowed no more than two runs over his past four starts. Lackey has become the most consistent starter in the Red Sox rotation, and should earn your trust in fantasy leagues too, at least for the time being.

5. Steve Cishek

After being a bit wobbly in the closer’s role earlier this season, as well has being given scarce opportunities on a weak Marlins team, Cishek has really turned it around in recent weeks. He hasn’t allowed an earned run since June 4th, racking up 12 saves in that time. He doesn’t strike out a lot of hitters, but gets right handers out with ease and is improving against left-handers. I’d be tempted to sell high, both because he is due for some regression and also because he may be traded to a team where he will not have the 9th inning job. For the time being, however, he is a strong fantasy option.

1. Matt Joyce

After tearing the cover off the ball at the end of May and beginning of June, Joyce has really slowed down in recent weeks, including an 0-for-19 slump that has seen his batting average drop to .244. He has been poor in the past against lefties, and should sit against them both for TB and fantasy teams. However, he still has the ability to crush right-handers, and if he’s available in your league he could be worth a speculative pick-up as he has the ability to get hot at any moment.

2. Pablo Sandoval

Before his injury in June, Sandoval’s .289 average with eight homers made him a pretty decent fantasy option, but after coming back on June 24th he has struggled greatly, as his average has fallen to .263 and he has just one extra-base hit (a double). It may be that the effects of his injury are still lingering, but this is a worrying stretch for Sandoval, and it’s possible a further DL stint is to come.

3. Doug Fister

Fister tends to go unnoticed when surrounded by the other big names in the Detroit rotation, but has actually been a pretty effective fantasy option for the past few seasons. After getting off to another good start this year, Fister has struggled of late however, allowing six runs in a start against Boston and then six more runs against Toronto two starts later. He strikes out hitters at a pretty good clip, but can sometimes get roughed up as occurred in the last couple of weeks. I think he is a definite buy-low option, as his record doesn’t match the performance and he is due for a bounce-back after his past couple of outings.

4. Shelby Miller

After getting off to an outstanding start that put him on a Cy Young pace, Miller has come back to earth a little in his past few starts. The two runs over six innings against the Angels were fine, but it was his first quality start since June 6th. He didn’t get through the second inning against the A’s, and allowed four runs against the Rangers and Mets before that. His next start against the Astros is a nice bounce-back opportunity, and his overall stats are still superb. It’s worth bearing in mind, however, that he will likely face an innings cap at some point.

5. Edward Mujica

After getting off to a ridiculous start as the St Louis closer, Mujica has also regressed a little in his past few outings, allowing at least one run in four of his past seven outings. He still has an impeccable 2.55 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and 22 saves, and will likely have a long leash, but this is more like the Mujica we would expect to see. Meanwhile, Trevor Rosenthal has been dominant in the eighth inning, with 59 K’s in 40 innings.

Read more from Ben over on The UK Baseball Blog and follow the blog on twitter @UKBaseballBlog.