Fantasy 5 Up 5 Down: Pitch perfect or out of tune?

We’ve seen some magnificent pitching performances take place over the past seven days, starting with Justin Verlander’s expected dominance of the Astros, followed by Yu Darvish’s 14 strikeout mastery against the Red Sox, Matt Harvey’s near perfecto against the White Sox and ending with Jon Lester and Shelby Miller’s one-hit brilliance on Friday night.

Of course for every dominant pitching performance there is a more disappointing one and owners of R.A. Dickey and David Price may be rueing their luck after the early season proceedings. Of course the real question now isn’t remembering who threw the last one-hit shutout but predicting who will throw the next. Which players are on the rise, and which players have seen their values plummet…

1. Matt Harvey

Matt Harvey was simply irrepressible last week against the White Sox, and only a bang-bang play on an infield single separated him from a perfect game. Harvey was high on draft boards entering the season considering he had just 70 innings of big league experience, but it’s hard to argue any pitcher in baseball is better than him at the moment. His fastball that rises to 98 is complemented by a ridiculously sharp slider at 90 which makes him almost unhittable for right handers. He’s developed a good change-up that makes him almost as tough for lefties, and his dominance has reached the point where I’d take him over any pitcher not named Verlander or Kershaw. The kid is special.

2. Starling Marte

Marte is fast becoming one of the more exciting players in baseball hitting lead-off for the Pirates, and his astonishing .607 batting average in the first inning ensures fans show up to games on time. The .333 average may regress a little, but the five home runs and ten steals are indications of his great power/speed combo. He may go 20/40 with an average in the .280s to boot, which makes him one of the most valuable players in any format.

3. Manny Machado

Machado was a trendy late-round pick in some drafts this season, after his strong performances in the latter part of the season had some predicting a breakout. So far, Machado has made his owners look very clever indeed, hitting .314 with five homers, four steals and plenty of RBI and runs. He has plus power, especially for a 20 year old, so there’s no reason to think he can’t hit 20 home runs with an average in the high .200s. If he’s the second choice on his fantasy team in your league, don’t be afraid to try and prise him away, especially if it’s a keeper league.

4. Patrick Corbin

Corbin has been filing Cy Young-esque performances so far this season, and his 1.75 ERA and 1.06 WHIP are testament to his hot start. He was the surprise winner of the last rotation spot in spring training, but has been one of the most added players in fantasy leagues so far this season, with more than six innings in every start as well as handy strikeout numbers. I don’t think he ends the season in Cy Young contention, so selling high is a good idea, but Corbin should still be an effective starter even with regression.

5. Kevin Gregg

The 34 year old was a bit of a forgotten man in the past couple of seasons, because, to put it bluntly, he’s not very good. But with the Cubs bullpen in turmoil he was given a shot and has run with it, saving five games, striking out ten and not yet allowing an earned run. In fact, he hasn’t allowed a hit in his last six outings, and even with Fujikawa primed to return soon he made hold on to the job. I don’t see his dominance lasting long unfortunately, because hitters will soon catch up to his soft fastball and begin to make him look like Kevin Gregg. Ride him whilst he’s closing, but sell him high if you possible can.

1. Jimmy Rollins

Rollins has endured a poor start to the season, hitting just .241 and drawing criticism for looking bored in the field. As shortstop looks weaker than ever with injuries to Reyes and Ramirez, Rollins owners would have been hoping the veteran would be a solid pick, but he has been very disappointing so far. He’s no doubt on the downslope of his career, but the power and speed are still there so owners just have to hang tight and hope he turns it around soon, although the hitting problems are part of the entire Phillies line-up at the moment.

2. Jay Bruce

As with Rollins, Bruce has been underwhelming so far this season for his owners, hitting just .247 with two home runs. Dusty Baker continues to refuse to bat him fourth, but this hasn’t been the real problem for Bruce who is striking out at an astronomic rate. He’ll tick this down in time, and the power should come, especially when he calls GABP his home. I like Bruce as a buy-low option if you need power help in the outfield, because one of his monster power surges is likely around the corner.

3. Roy Halladay

After ill-advisedly placing Halladay on my five up list, he absolutely fell apart against the Indians and Marlins, and has subsequently been placed on the DL. He is droppable in every format now, even keeper leagues and should be treated with great caution until he proves he can once again be effective. It’s sad to see a once-great pitcher fall off the table so dramatically, but fantasy owners will rightly have lost all patience by this stage.

4. Ryan Vogelsong

Vogelsong’s success in the past couple of seasons had always been treated with some suspicion, considering he doesn’t throw hard or get many strikeouts. Maybe this season is the year that his good luck finally catches up to him, as his ugly 7.78 ERA and 1.73 WHIP has seen him dropped in most leagues. I think Vogelsong is very much worth avoiding until he turns this ugly streak around, because his control has got away from him and hitters are teeing off.

5. Craig Kimbrel

Kimbrel had been so good as the closer for the Braves over the past couple of the seasons that he went in the fourth or fifth round of some drafts this season. He’s been a bit wobbly so far however, with a 3.14 ERA and 1.05 WHIP surprisingly high numbers for such a dominant ninth-inning man. He’s blown three saves in his last six chances including allowing two home runs against the Reds. This is likely just an unlucky patch, because Kimbrel had been the same dominant closer before that, so owners shouldn’t be panicking yet. It speaks volumes of the fact that he’s set the bar so high that a few poor outings could have fantasy players worrying.

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