Fantasy 5 Up 5 Down: Rookie error?

There are few things in fantasy sports as exciting as a much-hyped rookie. There’s something enticing about a big-time prospect finally getting his chance on the big stage. In 2012, fantasy owners were treated to something special as two of the biggest prospects in recent years not only reached the Majors in the same year, but just one day apart. Of course, Mike Trout and Bryce Harper have since gone on to prove that the hype was fully justified, and the frenzy-level of obsession with rookies has only grown.

We all know that gambling on rookies is a bad choice. Even the best struggle (Mike Trout was barely above the Mendoza line in his first taste of big league action in 2011), and the idea that rookies represent an undervalued asset is no longer true. Yet the morbid fascination continues, and it was against my better judgement that I scrambled to the waiver wire in my fantasy leagues this week upon hearing that first Jurickson Profar and later Kevin Gausman were called up to their respective big league clubs. So, what can we expect…

1. Jurickson Profar

Profar was the number one prospect on many prestigious lists entering the 2013 season, making him a late-round draft-day target in some fantasy leagues despite the fact he was blocked from reaching the Major League team. Finally, he got his opportunity, as Ian Kinsler’s intercostal strain landed him on the DL and Profar was called up to be his replacement. First of all, the upside. Profar plays the premium positions, both in fantasy and real baseball, as he covers both middle infield spots. For the time being, he will be at second base for the Rangers, one of the scarcest fantasy positions, especially considering injuries to Kinsler, Utley and Hill.

Profar has decent power and some speed, projectable for maybe 20 homers and 20 steals in his prime. He had a .278 batting average at AAA, with four homers and six steals, which feels about right. Any hopes he could be the next Mike Trout should be quashed, because offense simply isn’t the biggest facet to his game. Furthermore, Ian Kinsler should only be sidelined for another week or two, begging the question about Profar’s involvement thereafter. He’s worth a speculative pick-up in most fantasy leagues, but don’t break the bank for his services. If he can get off to a hot start, there is no better sell-high candidate in baseball.

2. Kevin Gausman

It was Dylan Bundy, not Kevin Gausman who was expected to join the Baltimore Orioles rotation at around this stage of the season, but injury has derailed Bundy’s season and Gausman has been nothing short of outstanding at double-A. Gausman is the first player from the 2012 draft to make it to the big leagues, an outstanding achievement when you consider that the draft was less than a year ago. In his major league debut he allowed four runs in five innings, whilst showing the electric fastball and knee-buckling off-speed stuff that had fantasy owners drooling. He can run the fastball up to 99mph, with an 82mph change-up that looks like a forkball. He should strike out plenty, and if you’re looking for a comparison he may enjoy the same early success that Jose Fernandez did. Like Profar, if he gets off to a hot start I would consider selling high, because most rookie pitchers tend to go through adjustment periods.

3. Francisco Liriano

Since coming off the disabled list two weeks ago, Liriano has done nothing but impress, picking up three straight wins, giving up just two runs and striking out 25. This is the upside that keeps Liriano fantasy relevant, as the high strikeouts have always promised a breakout that has yet to come. Before you go all-in on Liriano, bear in mind that he has pitched against the Brewers, Cubs and Mets so far, three of the most anaemic offenses in the entire Major Leagues. He will always give up his fair share of walks, and whilst the strikeouts are legit, the 1.00 ERA is not. I’d sell high at the first possible opportunity, and with his next scheduled start at Detroit, that opportunity may not last long.

4. Alex Rios

Rios is enjoying a fine encore to his big 2012 season, with a .306 average, 10 homers, 8 steals and plenty of runs and RBI. He currently owns a MLB-best 18 game hit streak and continues to be one of the more unappreciated fantasy assets. If he can hit around .300 with 20 homers and 20 steals he makes himself a top 10 outfielder, and at his current rates he may do even better. I’m not sure that his stock is high enough to be able to sell high, so for the time being enjoy the ride.

5. Francisco Rodriguez

Rodriguez has fallen a long way after setting the single season saves record a few seasons ago, and wasn’t even rostered on a Major League team until the beginning of May. But when Jim Henderson injured his hamstring last night, it was Rodriguez called upon to close out the game, and that was exactly what he did. The Brewers bullpen is pretty messy, especially with Henderson out, and even though Ron Roenicke has indicated he will use a closer by committee in his absence, I’d be happy to speculate that Rodriguez gets his fair share of save chances. The severity of Henderson’s injury is yet to be determined, but Rodriguez may be worth a speculative pick-up if you’re desperate for saves.

1. Martin Prado

Prado was a popular draft-day target thanks to his positional eligibility and move to a more hitter-friendly park. So far, he has been a big disappointment, hitting just .232 with four homers and one steal. He has slipped down the Diamondbacks line-up and is probably available at a pretty large discount from his draft day price. I wouldn’t be afraid to buy-low. Prado is a career .290 hitter who has endured a rough start to his D-Backs career, and once he starts lacing hits the counting stats will improve too. His eligibility is still a strong suit, so if his owner is getting frustrated, maybe you could swing a deal (Profar for Prado?) that will help you to the championship.

2. Brett Lawrie

Lawrie owners will be extremely frustrated with his lethargic start to the season, especially after his DL stint in April (I should know, I’m one of them…). The .195 average is simply appalling, and Lawrie is yet to steal a base whilst hitting just four home runs. If you have him on your team I think you have to put him on the bench and hope he busts out of the slump (like B.J. Upton). After his outstanding introduction in 2011, Lawrie has been very disappointing, and like Hosmer, time is running out for him to prove he can be a productive every-day player.

3. Jeremy Guthrie

After a strong start to the season saw him picked up in most fantasy leagues, Guthrie’s past couple of starts have been awful, as he allowed 11 runs in 12 innings, including 6 in an outing against Houston. His home run problem has finally caught up to him, and he doesn’t strike out enough hitters to make up for it. His true value is probably somewhere around 4.50 ERA, so if you were able to sell high give yourself a pat on the back. He can still be used as a match-up play, but the past week has once again shown that Guthrie is far from being a fantasy ace.

4. Justin Verlander

It speaks volumes of Verlander’s ability that a 3.66 ERA has fantasy owners and Detroit fans panicking. His last few starts have been rough, including one of the worst of his career as he allowed eight runs in just 2.2 innings against Texas. The other two were against his perennial nemesis Cleveland who always manage to elevate his pitch count. I’m not concerned at all about Verlander. The strikeouts are still there, and wins should be aplenty with the strong offense behind him. His 2.49 FIP (fielding independent pitching) is proof that he has been unlucky, and if you can buy low I’d bite his owner’s hand off to do so.

5. Steve Cishek

Steve Cishek has the unfortunate task of being asked to close games for the worst team in baseball. Opportunities have been hard to come by, but Cishek hasn’t excelled when given them, as his 4.66 ERA and 1.40 WHIP are not hallmarks of a dominant closer. To make matters worse, Mike Redmond indicated that future save opportunities might simply go to whoever is available out of the bullpen. There’s a strong chance Cishek may be available himself, but he doesn’t appear to have a grasp of the closer’s role in the traditional sense. If you need saves, he needs to be owned as he should still get a few opportunities, but Mike Dunn or A.J. Ramos could begin to cut into his job if his struggles continue.

Read more from Ben over on The UK Baseball Blog and follow the blog on twitter @UKBaseballBlog.