Fantasy 5 Up 5 Down: Worth keeping a keen eye still
With April nearly over, the novelty of a new season is beginning to wear off, and fantasy owners who may have been keenly updating their roster a couple of weeks ago could begin to take their foot off the gas now. If anything, now is the worst time to do so. On April 27th last season, a certain Mike Trout was called up to the Major Leagues. A day later, Bryce Harper got his feet wet in the Bigs. If you were slow to pick up on this news, it may have been the difference between a fantasy title and mid-table mediocrity. Of course there is no chance that a Mike Trout will surface again, but the guys who begin to shine now might be the ones you need to keep an eye on. At the same time, if your star players are still struggling is it time to pull the plug?
1. J.P. Arencibia
The power hitting catcher is in his age-27 season, and in theory should be entering his prime. So far this season, he has lived up to that bill, and with the rest of the line-up limply folding around him he has carried the team on his back to an extent. His eight home runs lead the American League and the .267 average is certainly bearable. He’s a streaky hitter, but even with some time off he should be a decent bet for 20+ home runs, although I don’t expect the average to top .250. If you own him, then by all means enjoy this power surge, but I’d be trying to shop him to a desperate manager looking for a catcher.
2. Kyle Seager
A week ago, Kyle Seager had put up an abysmal .219/.275/.359 triple-slash with no homers and was a candidate to go on my five down list. Now, however, his line is a dominant looking .306/.379/.529 with three home runs. He has been tearing the leather off the ball of late and actually has a 13 game hit streak going. If you own him, this is much more like what you expected, and if anyone in your league was foolish enough to drop him, make sure you snap him up. 20 home runs are possible, and Seager could also hit around .280 with a handy bit of speed. Now probably isn’t the best time to trade for him though.
3. Adam Wainwright
No-one doubted Wainwright’s talent entering the season, but few had him pegged to be this good. Through five starts, Wainwright has a 1.93 ERA, 4 wins and 37 strikeouts (to just 1 walk) and has looked every inch his dominant former self. He won’t carry a sub-two ERA throughout the season, but the strikeouts are legitimate and he is a good chance to earn some wins on a strong Cardinals team. He’s definitely an under-the-radar Cy Young pick, don’t think this early success is a fluke.
4. Roy Halladay
A second appearance for Halladay! This time he finds himself on the hot side of the 5 up/5 down spectrum after putting his first couple of disastrous starts behind him. I didn’t look much into his strong performance against the hapless Marlins, but a strong seven inning outing against the Cardinals followed by six innings of one-run ball against the Pirates is a promising sign. He is reverting back to a sinker that he largely abandoned for a cutter in recent seasons and it seems to be treating him well. He won’t revert back to Cy Young form, but I don’t think he’ll be as awful as he was at the beginning of the year. If you can sell high then by all means do so, but I’m cautiously optimistic that Halladay can begin to get back on track now.
5. Jason Grilli
Thrust into the closer’s role at the age of 36 after the departure of Hanrahan, Grilli has been able to convert his success in the set-up role into success as a closer so far. He has saved all nine opportunities presented to him and is yet to allow an earned run. It’s unlikely he’ll continue to be perfect all season, but fantasy owners who waited on closers and drafted Grilli must be pretty ecstatic at the moment. Save opportunities will be limited playing on a weak Pirates team, but Grilli is a fine ninth inning man with plenty of job security, so continue to roll him out whilst he’s getting the job done.
1. Miguel Montero
The left-handed catcher was a popular late pick in many fantasy drafts this season, but he has been underwhelming this season, particularly in recent days as he has just four hits in the last 10 games. Montero can be a very productive player when he is hot, so fantasy owners just need to sit out this barren streak and hope he turns it around soon. He could be a good buy-low option if you’re looking for a catcher.
2. Michael Morse
A second appearance for Mr. Morse, but unlike Halladay, he now moves to the down part of the list. A broken pinky finger sidelined him for a few days, and he has been unable to find his power stroke since, with a .162/.205/.216 triple-slash over the past nine games with no home runs. This shouldn’t come as a massive surprise, as Morse is prone to cold streaks, but I would expect the home runs to start coming back soon, so if his owner is panicking he could be a nice buy-low option for power-starved teams. This serves as a reminder that the first week doesn’t dictate the whole season!
3. Will Middlebrooks
After his three homer effort including two of reigning Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey a couple of weeks ago, Middlebrooks cemented his name as one of the more enticing young third basemen. Since then, however, he has struggled, as the six home runs are backed only by a .184 batting average, and he has continued to slide down the Red Sox line-up. Middlebrooks has almost no patience at the plate, and pitchers are starting to exploit this, so until he adjusts that batting average is going to struggle to challenge the Mendoza line. He has good raw power, but like Moustakas you may start wondering if he should be dropped around now.
4. Dan Haren
Many had Haren pegged for a bounceback season after an uncharacteristically poor season with the Angels last year. With injuries cleared up and a potent offense in front of him, the upside looked bright. However, he has struggled in the early season goings, unable to get past five innings in his four starts and holding a poor 7.36 ERA. It’s tough to let go of a big name like Haren, but the signs all point down for him, and until he can prove he’s turned it around, he shouldn’t be near your starting line-up.
5. Brandon Morrow
I was among those expecting big things from Morrow after his semi-breakout last season, but so far he has been poor, with a 5.27 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. He has been unable to strike hitters out recently, and his season high is 6.1 innings in a single start. I think Morrow has the stuff to turn this around, so I would be keeping him on my roster where possible, even if I don’t trust him against tough teams yet. Similarly, if he is on your waiver wire I’d be tempted to pick him up, because the upside could be huge. Be prepared for a few rough outings on the way though.
