Get It White: Week 4 NFL Predictions
Week 3 of the 2013 NFL season will forever be known by some experts, commentators and fanatics as the Predictor Graveyard, with five point (and more) favourites going down left, right and centre. Big names met a sticky end last week: the whole ‘Gameday Morning’ crew (Irvin, Warner, Faulk, Sapp, Mariucci) could only a muster an 8-8/.500 at best between them. But the predictor and I are proud, or more relieved, to say that a 9-7 record saved us from the first ever drop below .500 in the history of the column.
What last week taught us is that last week counts for absolutely nothing, ‘on any given Sunday’ as the saying goes, and if the predictor is to get back on the road to greatness, we’re going to have to up our game. While trends and momentum are important, matchups and gameplans are even more so, so let’s pick week 4.
BYE WEEK: Carolina Panthers, Green Bay Packers. (It feels so early for a bye week, don’t you think!?)
Friday 1:25am
San Francisco 49’ers 27-20 St Louis Rams
The 49’ers loss to the Colts last week was as shocking as it was surprising, only 7 points on offense, and that much-lauded defense not seeming to solve the balanced Indianapolis attack. I can’t believe that coach Harbaugh and Colin Kaepernick will put together a similarly poor performance three games on the bounce, especially against a Rams’ defense who were supposed to be a good unit, but look like that they can’t stop anyone right now. They allowed 150 yards on the ground to DeMarco Murray, and combined with Frank Gore’s public unhappiness with the 11 carries he received last week, I can see a heavy dose of ‘ground and pound’ on Thursday night from the Niners, going back to their roots, something that could get them back on track.
Sunday 6:00pm
Baltimore Ravens 23-13 Buffalo Bills
Baltimore found their groove last week against the Texans, making plays on offense, defense and special teams, and that was without Ray Rice active. If the young team has begun to gel, we could start seeing the potential that had the Ravens so excited about this inexperienced defense, and the visit to EJ Manuel and Buffalo should hold no fears. While Manuel has injected some hope into Buffalo, he still makes rookie mistakes, which the Bills cannot afford while their defense is missing Stephon Gilmore and Jarius Byrd. The Jets had 20 penalties and won against Buffalo last week, that’s reflective of the issues they have, issues the Ravens should exploit.
Arizona Cardinals 20-16 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
After scoring just 3 points against the Pats last week, the Bucs have decided to give Mike Glennon his first start in Tampa against the Cardinals this weekend, and I’m sure, despite a couple of injuries in the linebacking corps for Arizona, that the defense will be licking its lips in anticipation. To start a rookie QB in week 4, just as teams are beginning to hit stride, is a large gamble, and mistakes are to be expected. But Glennon does have a huge arm, and has obviously done enough to earn the trust of Greg Schiano, so Vincent Jackson, Mike Williams and company could be excited about the change. The Cards have shown improvement in many areas, and are young and full of potential on the back end, but the injuries to key personnel threaten to derail their good progress. However, I can’t pick with a rookie QB against the likes of Patrick Peterson, Tyrann Mathieu, Calais Cambell and Karlos Dansby, so Carson Palmer gets a handy road win.
Pittsburgh Steelers 27-13 Minnesota Vikings (@ Wembley Stadium, London)
The Steelers at 0-3 is a statistic far more surprising than the Vikings being at 0-3, but when you look at the teams, the Vikes have looked closer than Pittsburgh to being successful. As usual, their woes centre on Christian Ponder and a leaky pass defense, but compared to the offensive line of the Steelers, it’s a breeze. The Bears’ defense scored more points than 2 or 3 teams did last week, and Pittsburgh simply cannot afford to keep giving teams gifts due to being unable to protect their QB or open up running lanes. But the defense is stopping teams at times, and they will look to stop Adrian Peterson, as all teams do, while putting the game on Ponder’s (or Matt Cassel’s should he step in) shoulders. Antonio Brown could be the game winner here: if he repeats his 190 yard, TD performance of a week ago, it could be enough for Pittsburgh in London in the first International Series game of 2013.
New York Giants 17-31 Kansas City Chiefs
From a leaky offensive line to one that is downright ruining a team. Eli Manning will not survive another half like he endured in the first half in Carolina. SIX SACKS. IN A HALF. That’s just ugly. Being shut out by the Panthers is a punch in the face for the G-Men, and you can be sure that Tom Coughlin will make changes. They desperately need to get David Wilson going and to feed him confidence, as the running back is one of the most explosive, important players on this team now alongside Victor Cruz, but if the O-line can’t open up holes or hold the edge, they will lose again. The Chiefs are limited on offense, with Jamaal Charles as their only real explosive weapon, but their defense is becoming a real force. Justin Houston will have been licking his lips all week at the thought of this one, and if he gets 3 sacks and a forced fumble, don’t say I didn’t tell you so. If Kansas City play controlled football, as they have so far to go 3-0, there is no reason why they can’t extend the Giants’ misery. 4-0 Chiefs? Surprising. 0-4 Giants? Wow.
Indianapolis Colts 36-10 Jacksonville Jaguars
Who saw the Colts running over the Niners last week in their crystal ball then? Come on, own up. It was a physically dominating performance, on offense and defense, from a team who seem to have adopted an old school way of playing the game: the trade for Trent Richardson indicative of this. The Jags on the other hand seem to be being manhandled by anyone and everyone, so much so that by the 3rd quarter in Seattle, starters had been pulled by the home side. Oh and Tavaris Jackson’s passer rating was perfect. I won’t say there’s no hope, because you never know in the NFL, but here’s the percentage chance of Jacksonville winning this: 0.01%. But wait I hear you say! Blaine Gabbert is back… 0.001%.
Seattle Seahawks 31-17 Houston Texans
Houston’s poor showing against the Ravens confirmed a feeling that I’ve had since watching them struggle past the Chargers in week 1; that Matt Schaub has reached his peak and won’t help this team to get any further than they have already been. And that’s a big problem when you’re facing a team with a dominant defense like the Seahawks. If they can stop the running game and put the game on Schaub, they can be confident of another win here, because their offense will outscore the Texans’ QB. Seattle’s domination of the Jags was expected, but it illustrated their strength in depth as they rested their starters with 20 minutes left on the clock: this team is going places.
Cincinnati Bengals 30-13 Cleveland Browns
Two good stories from last week for these two teams, with Brian Hoyer helping the Browns to a win over the Vikings and the Bengals’ defense aiding their efforts in beating the Packers. But one of those two things is going to see a sharp dip this weekend, and guess which one it might be. Hoyer drew the headlines, but if he throws 3 interceptions again, the Bengals will be out of sight: they are a completely different proposition to Minnesota. AJ Green, Tyler Eifert, Mohamed Sanu and Gio Bernand bring something totally different to Adrian Peterson, so the Browns will have to step their aerial defense up, or they may get shredded.
Chicago Bears 24-20 Detroit Lions
This is one of the best games of the weekend in prospect: the league’s best receiver against the league’s best scoring defense. Calvin Johnson is being his usual self, a beast, but the Chicago defense is scoring at an obscene rate, forcing interceptions, fumbles and mistakes quicker than anything we’ve seen. I just have a feeling that this isn’t a great matchup for Detroit, who slipped past the Redskins last week, and with that improved, but still weak secondary up against Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett, Jay Cutler’s renaissance under QB guru Marc Trestman could continue in Detroit. Just as long as his offensive line’s performance stays at the better level it has been at this year; they cannot allow Ndamukong Suh to get at Cutler.
Sunday 9:05pm
New York Jets 13-17 Tennessee Titans
This is one of those games where running the ball and playing good defense will be the focus of both teams, and both teams can do that well. So to pick a game like this you’re looking for two things: homefield advantage and who has the most explosive players, players who can produce a moment of magic out of the blue. Tennessee fit both of these criteria. In Chris Johnson, they have a man who is looking back towards his best, and behind a rejuvenated offensive line, looks threatening at any time. The Jets piled up the offensive yards on the ground and through the air last week in Buffalo, but they will face a much sterner test here and the Titans’ defense will be looking to force Geno Smith into some more rookie errors. This will be close and hard-fought, one of those games where a single mistake could lose the game. 20 penalties again this week, and the Jets can kiss goodbye to winning.
Sunday 9:25pm
Washington Redskins 20-23 Oakland Raiders
I keep looking at this game with an eye for a bit of an upset. This Redskins defense is just not good, and if Terrelle Pryor starts with Denarius Moore and Darren McFadden in good form, there has to be a chance for the Raiders to open their account in the Black Hole. But Washington haven’t started the season on offense yet, RGIII is still ‘getting there’ and Alfred Morris will have a chance to run the ball close to 30 times on this Raiders defense that the Broncos steamrolled on the ground. This is the one game that I am finding really hard to pick. Head says Redskins sneak it if Matt Flynn gets the start under center, but I’m a gambler, and there is something about this Raiders team that says: “everyone thinks we’ll get beaten down every week; we’ll show them.” Show me Oakland, show me.
Philadelphia Eagles 21-41 Denver Broncos
All the talk will be about offense on offense, fast break vs Peyton’s machine, but the key matchup here is Wes Welker, Julius Thomas and Eric Decker against a defense that simply CANNOT cover crossing routes. The Eagles need to keep hold of the ball for as long as possible because I can see the Broncos scoring on every possession. Chip Kelly said that his team would play the Broncos in a parking lot, but by the end of this one he could be wishing that they actually did, that way no-one could see Peyton methodically dismantling his poor defense.
Dallas Cowboys 27-16 San Diego Chargers
Dallas proved me so wrong last week in their 31-7 beatdown of the Rams, mainly because they actually ran the ball, Dallas don’t do that! DeMarco Murray’s 150 yards on the deck not only helped my fantasy team to 3-0, but added a dimension of control to the Cowboys’ game that they will look to repeat against a San Diego unit that had struggled a bit against the run. Monte Kiffin’s defense has also looked a step up on last season’s, and with DeMarcus Ware looking dominant again, the Chargers, and King Dunlap in particular, will have his hands full. Philip Rivers is playing well for San Diego, but not well enough to take this one: the Cowboys may well have found a way to become something they haven’t been for a long time: consistent.
Monday 1:30am
New England Patriots 23-27 Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons, at 1-2, have this game now slated as vital, and their attack will provide an adversary that the Pats haven’t faced the like of yet. The Pats’ defense has been quietly impressive, but they still give up chunks of yardage in the passing game: something that, with Julio Jones around, could kill them in Atlanta. Tom Brady should have some success with his young receivers and one of the New England stable of running backs could post a decent stat line (who knows which one!?) but this is a tough one for the in-transition P-men. If Matt Ryan hits 300+ yards, the Falcons should win, but if the Pats can hold him to 250, Atlanta could be facing down the barrel of being 3 games back already in the NFC South.
Tuesday 1:40am
Miami Dolphins 14-30 New Orleans Saints
Ryan Tannehill’s drive to win the game against Atlanta last week was impressive, but it was the first time he has showed himself to be clutch in a big game, against a defense that is considerably weaker than the standard the Saints’ D has showed this season. Miami have lost Cameron Wake this week which is a huge loss to that front 7, and I am still not convinced that the secondary is that good. The Saints however, look a monstrously good football team back under the leadership of Sean Peyton, and if Drew Brees continues his imperious form with a defense that plays tough behind him, they will be a very difficult team to beat anywhere, let alone in a packed Superdome for a prime-time television game. I really like the way New Orleans are shaping up and they could start to pick holes in Miami’s strong start.