Get It White: Week 5 NFL Predictions
Here begins the lesson: Do not be fooled by illusions. Joe Flacco throws 5 INT’s on the road at one of the league’s weakest secondaries even though he looks great the week before. The Dallas Cowboys are anything but consistent, do not be led into thinking that they are. The Bengals are Quarterbacked by Andy Dalton, not Peyton Manning, so act accordingly. When Oakland have a chance, all their best players get injured very quickly. Here endeth the lesson.
After being punished for the gambles of last week, an 8-7 addition to the record was another close shave, and while a 39-25 season slate isn’t a disaster, it’s not up to the high standards this column regularly sets, so enough of the jibber jabber: here’s week 5.
BYE WEEK: Vikings, Steelers, Buccaneers, Redskins.
Friday 1:25am
Buffalo Bills 10-27 Cleveland Browns
Huge wins for these teams last week marked serious struggles for me and this column last week, and this week sees them square off in Cleveland, where Brian Hoyer and the trading away of Trent Richardson seems to have sparked something of a change of tone for the Browns. Two wins on the bounce, and both impressive ones at that, see them seriously in the hunt (although only 4 weeks are down) for the AFC North title. The Bills are talented yet inconsistent, but somehow, with their three best secondary players out managed to pick off Flacco FIVE times and beat the Superbowl champions. This game hinges on the defenses of these sides, the Bills still look weak on that side of the ball, so expect Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron to reel in the catches, while the Browns’ defense looks as strong as any right now, and EJ Manuel could have a tough night on the road, especially if CJ Spiller doesn’t make it.
Sunday 6:00pm
New England Patriots 27-24 Cincinnati Bengals
An awesome win for the Patriots last week on the road in Atlanta, and now they face a trip to the humbled Bengals in Cincy. Last week’s shock loss to the Browns was a disaster for Cincinnati and they will be keen to bounce back against one of the better teams in the AFC. It was a classic ‘bend but don’t break’ performance from New England to beat Atlanta, as Matt Ryan racked up 450 yards passing, but couldn’t get enough points on the board to catch up with Tom Brady, who showed a good rapport with his receivers, especially rookie Kenbrell Thompkins. The running game adds great balance to the Patriots’ attack and the Bengals will struggle to shut it down altogether. However, the loss of Vince Wilfork to an achilles tear is huge for the Pats and it is sure to have some kind of negative effect on that defense. This should be a close one, and could be decided by a mistake by Dalton, a big special teams play, a field goal right at the death… or the return of a certain, rather large Tight End?
Detroit Lions 30-37 Green Bay Packers
Alert. This will have A LOT of points in it. Detroit scored 40 points on the Bears last week, and that’s a much better defense than the one they face here. Likewise, the Bears scored 30 points on the Lions, and the Packers have an offense with just as much, if not more firepower. It’s all set up for a wild ride in Green Bay and the bye week could have a beneficial effect for the home side. They had quite a few niggling injuries that the extra week will have helped to ease, including Eddie Lacy, who is important to this offense for balance. The Lions though, may see this as their best chance in 22 years to win in Wisconsin, and with Reggie Bush in amazing form, they might just pull it off. Then again, it’s an NFC North fight at Lambeau Field, and more often than not, somehow, anyhow, the Packers leave with a W.
Seattle Seahawks 23-13 Indianapolis Colts
This is a seriously intriguing game. The Colts have exceeded my expectations in becoming what looks like a very competitive team on both sides of the ball, while the Seahawks only just pulled out a road win against the Texans after making mistakes and looking way below the standard they set in the previous weeks. The addition of Trent Richardson adds a different dimension to the Indy offense and allows them to be more efficient, which they will need to be this week as throwing on Brandon Browner and co. isn’t easy. The Seahawks, however disappointing they were last week, still managed to get the win against a fancied team, and that should tell you a lot about them. By the way, boy can Russell Wilson run.
Baltimore Ravens 23-27 Miami Dolphins
Joe Flacco is terrible on the road. This is a fact. But it wasn’t just his fault: the Ravens called less than 15 running plays against a bottom 10 defense against the run. That is absolutely ludicrous when you have Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce, even if the opposition has half of their secondary out injured. Baltimore have to balance their offense in Miami so much better or the Dolphins’ front seven will torment their QB all night. Miami’s loss to the Saints wasn’t great for their offensive line, but you would think Ryan Tannehill and the offense would have more luck against the Ravens’ D at home. Their secondary is still a concern though, and Torrey Smith is coming off a big day, so they will have to tighten up there too. This could be another close one, but the Dolphins’ home advantage could do the trick.
New Orleans Saints 30-20 Chicago Bears
How good do the Saints look right now!? That defense has gone from awful to excellent in a matter of months and Drew Brees is tearing it up out there. Chicago’s capitulation against Reggie Bush is a bad sign for the Bears, as Darren Sproles is a very similar weapon, and they didn’t have to worry about a player like Jimmy Graham either. The Bears’ D will probably have a takeaway or two, but whether they can turn it into enough points to keep up with Brees is another question. Jay Cutler needs to cut out the errors and return to the composed QB we saw in the first three weeks or the Bears will fall victim to Sean Peyton’s New Orleans machine.
Philadelphia Eagles 27-30 New York Giants
An NFC East faceoff that no-one would have predicted being between 1-3 and 0-4 teams. The Giants have just been plain awful this year, and will need the small spark shown at times in the KC defeat last week to catch the rest of the team alight, because that defense in Philly is there for the taking. Their defense will face a threat much like the one they failed to contain in Jamaal Charles again here, as LeSean McCoy is on fire right now and on for a career year, and they will have to do a much better job there. As for those Eagles, a bright start has faded into something a whole lot darker, and the defense is taking all the lustre off this team, no matter what the offense can come up with. However, this could turn out to be one of the best games of the weekend, and I have a feeling that in front of a huge home crowd in a divisional matchup, this could be the perfect opportunity for the Giants to rise like a phoenix from the ashes, with RB David Wilson showing what he could be in NY with 100 yards and a TD.
Kansas City Chiefs 23-16 Tennessee Titans
This time last week, you knew that if both teams won their respective games, this could be a cracking tie. However, the loss of Jake Locker to a hip injury could change everything for the Titans, just as he was beginning to fulfil his rich potential. Ryan Fitzpatrick’s limitations have been put on show before for all to see, and the KC defense has been tormenting opposition triggermen all season, so this doesn’t seem a good matchup for him to make his first Tennessee start. The Titans, as good as they have been on defense, are struggling a little at times against the run: not good when Jamaal Charles is around and in the form he is in right now. The matchups in this game are tilted towards the Chiefs in the majority, and I don’t think home advantage will be enough to even it out for the Titans.
Jacksonville Jaguars 16-32 St Louis Rams
Jacksonville… where to begin? Blaine Gabbert is not the guy. Let’s leave it there. This is obviously a very good opportunity for Sam Bradford and the Rams to get back on track, but they will still have to go out with the right attitude as this is probably the best chance so far for the Jags to steal something from a game so far. St Louis needs to get a running game going to help their QB, even though he is throwing for a lot of yards, and that probably won’t change here. Look for the Rams’ defense to gain some much needed confidence too, maybe even a safety.
Sunday 9:05pm
Carolina Panthers 20-16 Arizona Cardinals
The Panthers probably didn’t want a bye week, coming off a big win against the Giants, but they have had one to rest and recuperate for a test in Arizona. The Cards have flattered to deceive, with both sides of the ball promising a little more than they have delivered, although Patrick Peterson’s two brilliant interceptions last week showed a glimpse of how talented the team is in places. But I’m always a fan of the theory that the team with a bye week gets healthy and plans well for their games, and I have a feeling that indoors, Cam Newton could put in a top performance for Carolina. Look for Greg Olsen to put up some big numbers for the Panthers at TE, a position the Cardinals are poorly matched up against with so many linebackers out injured.
Sunday 9:25pm
Denver Broncos 34-27 Dallas Cowboys
Just the 52 points for Peyton Manning and the Broncos last week, and this is an offense that just looks unstoppable right now with D. Thomas, Welker, Decker and J. Thomas for the elder Manning to throw to. The Cowboys, as they always do, betrayed my faith in them and their supposed newfound consistency, but I do expect their offense to have some success on Sunday back at ‘Jerry World’, with DeMarco Murray in excellent form and Tony Romo finding Dez Bryant with regularity. This could be a high scoring affair in Dallas, but if it turns into a shootout, there’s only one winner, so the Cowboys will have to hope Monte Kiffin comes up with something good.
Monday 1:30am
Houston Texans 20-24 San Francisco 49’ers
Houston really stepped it up last week on offense and defense and pushed the well-fancied Seahawks all the way to OT, and they will have to do the same again on the road in San Francisco. But this is a rejuvenated 49’ers outfit who hammered the Rams last week by going back to their identity of running the football and playing hard defense. This could be a very close game, but only if Matt Schaub plays at his game-managing best, making no mistakes whatsoever, because if he does, it could be the difference between the two sides. The teams’ RB’s Arian Foster and Frank Gore will most likely cancel each other out, so it could come down to QB’s and defenses: columns that I would give the advantage to the Niners in.
Monday 4:35am
San Diego Chargers 30-16 Oakland Raiders
Philip Rivers seems to have finally rediscovered the form that made him one of the league’s best QB’s. San Diego are really coming together as a team and should be too strong for a banged-up Oakland in the latest game I’ve ever seen. You could wake up at 7am and see the end of this one, where Rivers is probably taking a knee. Although Terrelle Pryor will be back, I can’t see it being enough for the Raiders, even though their defense is beginning to resemble a half-decent unit. Eddie Royal’s touchdown record is ridiculous by the way: 5 in 4 games, and no games without one – that’s fantastic consistency. It’s quite nice to see Antonio Gates smashing the hundred yard barrier in receiving yards once again too.
Tuesday 1:40am
New York Jets 13-27 Atlanta Falcons
Well well, who had the Falcons at 1-3 at the start of the year? Not me that’s for sure. But they have a good matchup this week in the Georgia Dome with which to put another win on the board. The Jets are without their top 2 receivers, Santonio Holmes and Stephen Hill, through injury; and their running game through Bilal Powell could well be blunted against the decent defensive unit that the Falcons have. If Geno Smith keeps making the mistakes he’s made so far this year, it could be a long evening on Monday night for Rex Ryans’s charges. Matt Ryan seems to be throwing for all the right yardage, 420 against the Pats, but it’s not coming right just yet. Maybe this is the night, in front of a prime time TV audience, that the Falcons get back on the right track.