Getting even

With such disparity in games played this time of the season in the British Basketball League it is hard to picture who will finish where, but there are four teams most people expect to occupy the top four places in late April. As we get closer to the business end of the season, I take a look at where I expect to see those four teams resting at the end of February.

Newcaste Eagles

Currently top of the tree with 28 points from 15 games it is hard to see the Eagles dropping many games. They have wobbled a little bit in their last two, but they got the job done which is exactly what they have done all season. Away games against the other sides expected to finish in those top places will be where they could win or lose the title.

Trips to Worcester and Plymouth await Fab Flournoy’s men in February and they have three games against the Leicester Riders to play in the Championship before we crown somebody the league winners.

Games in the Championship next month:

February 4th at Worcester Wolves (L), Fenruary 17th home to Durham Wildcats (W), February 24th at Plymouth Raiders (W), February 26th at Cheshire Jets (W) – predicted points total at end of February = 34.

Worcester Wolves

We are probably just reaching the stage where people now believe the Wolves can consolidate a top four finish. But Paul James and his 2011/12 roster will have higher ambitons than this with three months of the season remaining. The Wolves have beaten Newcastle and Plymouth in the league so far this term, but were took apart by Leicester at the University of Worcester in December. They have the game though to keep Newcastle and Plymouth quiet inside so the matchups between them will depend on who has the better accuracy from outside. I have a gut feeling that the potential banana skin for Wolves in February is an away trip to Durham.

Games in the Championship next month:

February 4th home to Newcastle Eagles (W), February 11th home to Plymouth Raiders (W), February 18th home to Milton Keynes (W), February 24th at Durham Wildcats (L) – predicted points total at end of February = 30.

Plymouth Raiders

I’ve covered two of their games above, and I think that out of the potetntial top four finshers the Raiders are the most unpredictable. There have been times this season where Williams has been shut down but Bell has fired them to victory, times when they have been shut down inside and Bell has failed to shoot them to victory and times when Colbert and Ojo have joined the party and helped them to see games through. The latter is the key to the Raiders success this season. Ojo, Colbert and to an extent Martin have to put in big games on a more consistent basis. They started to show they were capable of this before the Cup Final and will need to rekindle that team game starting this Sunday. Whether they do that or not, I expect them to have enough to get past the Rocks on Sunday to take them to 18 points going in to next month.

Games in the Championship next month:

February 11th at Worcester Wolves (L), February 12th home to Sheffield Sharks (W), February 17th at Mersey Tigers (W), February 24th home to Newcastle Eagles (L), February 26th at Guildford Heat (W) – predicted points total at end of February = 24.

Had the Sharks game been away I would have favoured Sheffield and an improved Mersey side could also give Plymouth problems if they don’t all show up.

Leicester Riders

This is where I think the phrase points in the bag comes in, as I think the Riders will suffer as the games come thick and fast on the run in. With 14 games to play in March and April only the Raiders have a more punishing schedule. Wolves have ten games to play over that period and the Eagles 11 in the Championship. Before all that though they have a double header this weekend against the Rocks at home and the Jets away. They should add four points to their league total from the next two days heading in to four games in February.

Games in the Championship next month:

February 4th home to Sheffield Sharks (W), February 12th at Durham Wildcats (W), February 17th at Milton keynes Lions (W), February 25th home to Glasgow Rocks (W) – predicted points total at end of February = 28.

So that’s no defeats in six games from now, but it is after then that I expect the Riders to ultimately flounder in their push for the title due to the sheer physical demand on their roster.

So when the table shakes down tomorrow as January draws to a close, it should be as you were in the BBL come the end of February.