If the season ended today – AFC edition
With two games left the overall playoff picture is much more complicated that it seems. The AFC is at the moment the crazier of the two divisions with the race for the number one seed anything but done, only one remaining wild card spot with insane possibilities, and two divisions up for grabs.
The top four seeds aren’t even safe yet and competition will be fast and fierce. Enjoy the last two games; I know I’m going to. The following are the playoff positions if the season ended today along with where it seems to teams will be come the end of week seventeen.
AFC
First Seed: New England Patriots 11-3.
After double whammy losses last week for the top teams in the AFC North, the Pats have solidified themselves at the top. They can’t clinch the first seed next week unless they win and all of the following 10-4 teams lose, but they control their fate and by winning against the bottom two teams in the East, Miami and Buffalo, it would all be over. New England tends to struggle in their division so this one still could go down to the wire.
Second Seed: Baltimore Ravens 10-4.
The loss last week may have hurt them, taking the first seed out of reach (for the meantime), but the ravens were helped out after both the Steelers and Texans lost as well. Since they have all the tiebreakers (including those over New England) they just need to win out to nab the second seed and AFC North. The Ravens schedule ends with the Browns and Bengals, so unless something major happens they ought to stay where they are (or maybe move up).
Third Seed: Houston Texans 10-4.
Last week I was singing TJ Yates’ praises, this week? Not so much. In all fairness he is a rookie and Houston can lean on that insane two-headed monster of a running game but if the Texans are going to have any chance of improving from the third seed he needs to try hard not to throw end zone picks. The AFC West’s too far off to trouble Houston (baring a miracle, it is possible) and with the Ravens last two games it seems unlikely they will drop a game somewhere. They have a chance to jump to the number one seed (even if only for a few days) on Thursday night and then play an equally bad Titans team in week seventeen. The Texans can still take the first seed for real, but it would take two Pats losses and as mentioned the only way to jump above the Ravens is for them to lose a game somewhere. I see TJ Yates having another mare before this season is over and done with so they need to limp across the finish line and regroup before worrying about anyone else.
Fourth Seed: Denver Broncos 8-6.
What has happened to the AFC West? Every year it throws up a major surprise along the line. Right now, even after a beat down from New England, the Broncos control the division, but every team (mathematically) could take the crown. For Denver it’s not even a case of just winning one game. The Raiders have tiebreakers over them so they would need the Chiefs to win as well as themselves to clinch next week. In the long run all they need to do is win out against the Bills and Chiefs and they secure a home playoff match (shame it’s almost certainly against the Steelers, Tebow better start praying now for that one). A loss next week opens the door up to a thrilling final day finish.
Wild Cards
Fifth seed: Pittsburg Steelers 10-4.
Pittsburg watched the Ravens fall only to fall themselves on the back of a turnover happy (injured) Big Ben. With a two game lead over the nearest wildcard and tiebreakers the Steelers are assured a playoff spot it’s now down to whether that spot will be one or five. The Ravens have an easy end but so do the Steelers taking on first St Louis and then the Browns. They’re just going to have to take care of business on their end and hope the Ravens slip up (something the Ravens are good at vs. the weaker teams in this league).
Sixth seed: New York Jets 8-6.
The Jets (and Rex’s Job) are clinging onto the sixth seed with both hands (and a common win percentage over Cincinnati). A huge Meadowland clash this weekend, which both teams desperately need to win, decides this spot for the Jets. They have the same record as Daltons’ Bengals and with three chasing 7-7 teams they can’t afford anything other than wins. After the Giants they face a divisional matchup with a Miami side that has suddenly found a way to play and win late on this season, so this doesn’t get any easier for the Jets (who, have I mentioned, are terrible right now). If they can find a way to hold on for those last two games it’s on in the playoffs facing a third seed who lacks a QB. It’s a shame they’re probably not going to win next week. Poor Rex.
Chasing Pack
Cincinnati Bengals 8-6.
The Bengals have two very tough weeks upcoming. Both games are home, but both games are tough defensive match ups. Arizona this week will be an interesting test against that surprising ‘Zona D and they’ll have to hope for the Ravens to be in the clear week seventeen and resting players. The Jets don’t have it easy either and, thanks to a common win percentage in the Jets favor, Cincinnati will need a slip up. They also have to be looking over their shoulder and the chasing 7-7 teams a little worried.
Tennessee Titans 7-7.
It’s confusing how the Titans end up king of the 7-7 teams, it’s even more confusing the playoff scenarios concerning them. It comes down to strengths of victories and a lot of other factors they change based on results of teams not even in the AFC. There are almost too many combinations to list. To keep it simple the Titans need to win, it’d be nice if everyone else lost (but then even that’s not true). Oddly the Jets are the most important team for the Titans. If the Giants beat the Jets this week, the Titans have a tiebreaker over the Bengals, but if the Jets can’t beat the Giants it’s all over for Tennessee. Even if the Giants do beat the Jets, if Miami then beats the Jets, the Bengals get back their tiebreaker. This means that as well as a Cincinnati loss; the Titans also need the Jets to lose in week sixteen and then to win in week seventeen. The further bad news is that the Chargers can also crash the Titans party. If the Giants do indeed beat the jets and Baltimore loses a game to make the playoffs the Titans need a San Diego loss (despite currently owning the tiebreakers). Boiled down, the Titans need a Jets loss, followed by a Jets win, a Bengals loss and San Diego loss…confused? Don’t worry, so am I.
Oakland Raiders 7-7.
A last second TD left the Raiders stuck back out of the playoffs. Oakland will be hoping for a Bills win to give them a chance to take this division. They of course need to take care of business on their end, and an intriguing game against the Giant (Packer) killing Chiefs will surely throw a curve ball their way. They can of course still sneak in as the sixth seed, but would need to beat the Chargers in a final game. The scenario is confusing for Oakland, but as long as they win out AND both the Jets and Bengals lose a game, despite being below the Titans right now they take the sixth seed. Strangely the Raiders have a much better chance of going to the postseason than the Titans do (but again, this depends on several crazy factors).
San Diego Chargers 7-7.
Being hot in December can only work so many times to allow the Chargers to perform a miracle come from behind division win. If Denver can win any of there final two games that would eliminate San Diego from the division. The final game in the West is with Oakland, so as long as Denver loses twice, the Chargers just need to win twice. This week’s game is with the Lions, and the Lions will be looking to clinch a playoff spot with a win. Which team is more desperate? To get the sixth seed the Chargers enter the mess that is the AFC wild card chase. Thanks to a head to head match up with the Raiders, strength of victories over the Titans and a high win percentage in conference play (very strangely) the Chargers as long as they win out and the Jets and Bengal both lose, even with the Titans winning both their games take the sixth seed.
Kansas City Chiefs 6-8.
After the madness of the sixth seed (which the Chiefs can’t compete for thanks to that Raiders Chargers game week seventeen) the Chiefs scenario for wining the West is very simple. They need to win out against both the Broncos and Raiders. They need the Broncos to also lose this week to the Bills and the Chargers to lose one of their final games. Got that? Simple compared to the inanity above. Do I think it will happen? Maybe. The Broncos are a hype train and could theoretically lose their last two games and the Chargers last two games are hard matches. Tyler Palko isn’t awful, but no running game hurts this team. It’s not impossible, but it would take some major cosmic shift for it to happen.
