Making their own Luck
“For those of you who aren’t going to get a chance to play professional football you’re going to get to play Peyton Manning.”
Those were the words of Jon Embree, the first-year Colorado head football coach whose Buffaloes will face stellar QB Andrew Luck this weekend.
Luck, the Stanford protege, is already the class of the 2012 NFL Draft and will be the top selection regardless of what happens between now and next April. In two and a bit years of college football, Luck’s numbers are staggering. 6926 yards thrown, at a completion rate of 65%, with 56 TD passes and just 13 interceptions.
But where could the Cardinal land in April? Now that the NFL season has reached its quarter mark, it’s clear that there are seven teams that are in the running:
Indianapolis Colts (0-4): It’s no secret that the Colts need to find a replacement for Manning. They have looked woeful this year without the Canton bound QB and despite an encouraging display from Curtis Painter on Monday Night Football, a QB (and Luck) will be a top priority for Indianapolis in the Draft. With a remaining schedule of teams that combine for a record of 22-18, including the Ravens and Patriots – there is no doubt that Jim Caldwell will have a top 5 pick to play with.
Miami Dolphins (0-4): Chad Henne has never fulfilled the prophecy of becoming the Dolphins’ next Dan Marino, following his second round pick in 2008. With Henne now on the sidelines for a significant amount time with a separated shoulder and a porous defense, the chances of Luck heading to Florida have increased. The opportunity to pick the Cardinal would signal another fresh start for the Phins.
Minnesota Vikings (0-4): Now the Vikings aren’t a 0-4 team, they have a decent defence and offense that can run the ball. The issue for Lezlie Frazier remains under center with Donovan McNabb’s contract up at the end of the season. With playoff hopes all but extinguished it’s time that the Vikes see whether first round pick Christian Ponder can carry the franchise forward. If he can’t then Luck must become the top priority.
Denver Broncos (1-3): If you didn’t know already Tim Tebow isn’t the man at Mile High City. If he was, Kyle Orton would have been traded in the summer or the Heisman Trophy winner would have been given an opportunity to play more than one snap in Denver’s three defeats. In truth, like the Vikes, Tebow needs to be given some meaningful time as a starter, now that the Broncos are out of the playoff race, to see what he is made of. Likelihood is that John Elway already has his eye on Luck in a Bronco shirt next season.
Kansas City Chiefs (1-3): The catalogue of injuries to key players in Todd Haley’s roster has made things decidedly tough this season. With no real playoff hope, the attention will turn to the future and focus on Matt Cassel. Early signs aren’t encouraging as Cassel, who has thrown 5 INTs already, doesn’t have the ability to produce comeback victories and relies heavily on a run game. Scott Pioli may only get one more draft to save his job and the prospect of Luck being available could not only solve the Chiefs offensive deficiencies but also keep the GM in the job.
Seattle Seahawks (1-3): Let’s face it the NFC West is an awful division of football and there is a real possibility that a 6-10 team could make the playoffs this year. Seattle are still in a rebuilding stage and privately Pete Carroll will surely be regretting the decision to let Matt Hasselbeck leave for the Titans. Tavaris Jackson isn’t the solution and Charlie Whitehurst is no better than a back-up. It is in Seattle’s best interests if they pursue Luck.
Cleveland Browns (2-2): Honestly it is hard to see a team with an improving defense and a capable running game being at the basement of the league this year. However the Browns may be tempted to investigate Luck because it is becoming apparent that Colt McCoy lacks the arm strength to make downfield throws. In a play action system, a strong armed QB is essential and Luck would fit the bill.
The assumption is that one of the franchises above will finish with the league’s worst record and Luck will disappear off the board within a matter of seconds on April 26.
However there is one team who could quite possibly finish with the league’s worst record and not even consider taking the option to pick luck. The team in question is another in the NFC West – the St. Louis Rams (0-4).
The Rams don’t have a problem at QB, they invested heavily in Sam Bradford and he is not a bad player. The simple fact is that the Rams have failed to assemble the weaponary required for Bradford to be successful while the defense has not been up to standard.
If this scenario was to play out, there is little doubt that the Rams would shop the first pick around purely because Luck will be a wanted commodity and they could accrue many picks to select players that could only help Bradford and the slow defense.
With an open trade market for the number one pick, suddenly it wouldn’t be just the worse teams in the league courting Luck’s services.
San Francisco 49ers (3-1) are bound to be interested with Jim Harbaugh, Luck’s former coach, at the helm. With uncertainty still reigning about Alex Smith and Colin Kaerpernick an unknown quantity, the 49ers may be prepared to get into the mix and reunite the coach-QB duo.
But if you want a left-field location for Luck to end up at, well how about the Dallas Cowboys (2-2)?
Just look at the roster that America’s team has assembled and you have to wonder why they are yet to win a Superbowl, let alone reach an NFC Championship game since their Super Bowl XXX triumph in 1995-6.
Tony Romo is running out of chances and given his erratic performances in the Cowboys first four games this year, Jerry Jones may begin to look elsewhere. The Cowboys have a roster capable of making a deep playoff run, maybe even an outside shot at a Super Bowl ring, but with Romo under center no-one quite buys them, with Luck running the show it would be a different discussion.
It maybe seven months until Luck strolls out on to the stage at the Radio City Music Hall with the number one shirt, but the sweepstakes for his services begin now.
As Jon Wilner commented last weekend: “Time and again, he’d scan the UCLA defensive formation, then walk up and down the line of scrimmage barking instructions the way Manning has done it for years for the Indianapolis Colts. Two of the no-huddle drives orchestrated by Luck resulted in touchdowns.”
If the hype is to be believed the NFL will witness the arrival of the next great QB to grace the league.
Follow Tom Jackson on twitter @JacksonTC
