New uniforms and new logo, but is it a new era of success in Toronto?
The Blue Jays, the sole non-US team in the Majors, find themselves stuck in an AL East division that has been dominated by the big two for the majority of the past two decades, meaning that Toronto hasn’t seen post-season action since their back-to-back World Series titles of 1992 and 1993. Last season, the Blue Jays were middle of the pack in most categories (24th in ERA, 20th in AVG) but they did score a whole bunch of runs, thanks in no small part to Jose Bautista’s second straight year of leading the league in home runs.
Unfortunately, the glaring problem for the Blue Jays wasn’t addressed during the winter. In his 32 starts last season, Ricky Romero recorded a 2.92 ERA. In the remaining 130 games, the rest of the starting pitchers combined for a 5.05 ERA. Clearly that figure will need improved upon should the Blue Jays want to make waves atop the AL East.
IN : Brian Bocock (INF – Pittsburgh), Francisco Cordero (RP – Cincinnati), Nelson Figueroa (SP – Pittsburgh), Ben Francisco (OF – Philadelphia), Jason Frasor (RP – Chicago W.S.), Aaron Laffey (RP – Kansas City), Trystan Magnuson (RP – Oakland), Jeff Mathis (C – L.A. Angels), Darren Oliver (RP – Texas), Kyle Phillips (C – San Diego), Sergio Santos (RP – Chicago W.S), Rick VandenHurk (SP – Baltimore), Omar Vizquel (INF – Chicago W.S.)
OUT : Shawn Camp (RP – Seattle), Jesse Carlson (RP – Boston), Kyle Davis (SP), Frank Francisco (RP – N.Y. Mets), Chad Gaudin (RP – Miami), Wil Ledezma (RP – L.A. Dodgers), Rommie Lewis (SP), Adam Loewen (OF – N.Y. Mets), Brad Mills (SP – L.A. Angels), Jose Molina (C – Tampa Bay), Jayson Nix (INF – N.Y. Yankees), Jon Rauch (RP – N.Y. Mets), Brian Tallet (RP – Pittsburgh), Mark Teahan (INF – Washington), J.P. Walters (SP – Minnesota), DeWayne Wise (OF – N.Y. Yankees), Chris Woodward (INF)
Catchers : J.P. Arencibia had a breakout year last season, hitting 23 homers, but a .219 AVG and high strikeout rate will need to be addressed if he is to become an elite catcher. Jeff Mathis arrives from the Angels to provide veteran cover, although his bat is even weaker, with a sub .200 career mark. Young Travis d’Arnaud has yet to play in the Majors, but is considered a top prospect, having won numerous Minor League awards last year after hitting .311 along with 23 homers at Double-A.
Infielders : A workmanlike infield is led by first baseman Adam Lind, who is coming off a third consecutive 20 HR season, but he did slump in the second half. 22 year old Brett Lawrie will be given the best shot at claiming the third base job following a terrific rookie campaign, hitting .293 and nine dingers in a 43 games spell. The middle infield is vastly experienced with Yunel Escobar and Kelly Johnson the probable starters. Both are solid defensively and will provide some pop, but neither are genuine base stealing threats. Mike McCoy, however, is just that, and will be the front runner for the super utility bench role. He even pitched a perfect 9th inning in a blowout loss to Boston last year. Luis Valbuena is another option for that role, while 44 year old Omar Vizquel is a non-roster invitee who made his MLB debut before third baseman Lawrie was even born. Inexperienced reserves David Cooper, Adeiny Hechavarria and Mike McDade will be hoping to catch the eye in Spring Training.
Outfielders : Clearly, Jose Bautista is the star of the Blue Jays outfield, with 97 HRs in the last two years, at a rate of one homer every 11.15 at bats. The 31 year old came from seemingly nowhere, with that figure being 29.7 at bats prior to the 2010 season. Meanwhile, his outfield partners will be lefties Colby Rasmus and Eric Thames. While Thames had a solid rookie year, Rasmus hit an anaemic .173 after his midseason arrival. Rajai Davis is the main speedster on the roster, having stolen 125 bases in the last three years and could play a crucial role again, while Ben Francisco’s arrival from the Phillies, along with Travis Snider, who is entering his fifth year as a valuable reserve, give coach John Farrell numerous options to choose from.
Designated Hitter : Another team with no ‘official’ DH, Edwin Encarnacion appears the first option, assuming Brett Lawrie claims the third base role as expected. The veteran hit 17 home runs, along with a .272 AVG last year and they will need his bat in the line-up, while Lind and Lawrie are likely the best options behind the 29 year old Dominican.
Starting Pitchers : Ricky Romero is the sole star of a relatively poor starting rotation. The 27 year old lefty has improved in each of his three seasons, but bettering a 2.92 ERA will prove difficult. Brett Cecil and Brandon Morrow are likely to be the 2-3 punch in the rotation, but career ERAs close to 4.50 suggest that the rigours of pitching in the AL East are something that befuddles them on occasion. Kyle Drabek is a hot prospect who may well start in the Minors following a tough stint in the big leagues last season, while Henderson Alvarez suffered no such problems and should slot into the no.4 role after allowing just eight walks and claiming 40 strikeouts in 63.2 innings in his first year. Dustin McGowan was another disappointment in 2011 and will have to fight tooth and nail for a place in the starting rotation. New signings Rick VandenHurk and Nelson Figueroa appear to be final options and will provide Minor League depth.
Relief Pitchers : Despite a relatively decent performance, the bullpen experienced something of a makeover with seven relievers leaving, with six arriving and numerous non-roster invites. Sergio Santos arrives from the White Sox and will replace the departed Jon Rauch and Frank Francisco as the sole closer. New trio Darren Oliver, Jason Frasor and Francisco Cordero will provide both experience and consistency. Frasor returns to Canada having been traded away at the trade deadline last season. He holds the Blue Jays appearances record with 455. Casey Janssen was the best bullpen option last year and returns with a better cast around him. Jesse Litsch, Carlos Villaneuva and lefty Luis Perez all return but will need to fight for their places with a slew of non-roster invitees and new signings. With the inconsistency and injuries of the starting rotation last year, all three had spells in the rotation and could be used in such roles again if needed. Chad Beck, Trystan Magnuson and Joel Carreno are the most likely to force their way into the bullpen, while Spring Training invites include hard throwing Jim Hoey and the experienced Aaron Laffey.
PREDICTION : In such a tough division, the Blue Jays poor starting rotation will need to dramatically improve if they are to be in the play-off hunt come September, and I just don’t see that happening to a significant enough degree. A strong bullpen and a hard-hitting line-up will see them win their fair share of games, but I still see them finishing in fourth place.
