NFL Ones to Watch: Fly Eagles, Fly
Now I’ve got that out of the way, it is pretty unusual to have three perfect teams heading into week six.
It should be worth a look at each of these this week, and it should be noted, two of these are in the same division.
New Orleans Saints, Denver Broncos and the Kansas City Chiefs are all in action, with just two teams on a bye this week, in Atlanta and Miami.
We start with the Saints as they battle the New England Patriots and there is no reason to think that it won’t be 6-0 at the end of this one.
The Patriots have a well-documented problem at WR and it is apparent that the 21st ranked passing Pats line shouldn’t cause many troubles to the 12th ranked New Orleans defensive line. With wins on both passing and offence 2nd and 4th respectively, this should be a cakewalk for the Saints, with 60 more yards per game than the boys of Foxborough and on the cusp of 100 passing yards between the teams. A positive to take into this for NE is that they are outrushing the Saints by nearly 40 yards per game. Good, but not enough to pull off an upset here.
Is it weird to anybody else that I just labelled a Patriots team an underdog?
Moving on while you digest that information we have the Jaguars on the road (like it matters) to the Broncos. Yep, here will be a game to remember as the Denver outfit will go 6-0. In the three previous meetings between the teams, Jacksonville has the advantage 3-0. Sadly though, that might be all they have to look forward to this week, although they do also hold an advantage 22-29 on the defensive line. That won’t be enough to keep Peyton Manning and leading touchdown receiver Wes Welker (who is obviously missed over in New England) out of the end zone on a frequent basis. It doesn’t seem fair to analyse this further but for the sake of parity, if the Jags are going to threaten the Broncos, they need to keep working Cecil Shorts who has 411 yards off 31 receptions for one TD at an average of 13.3 YPC. Will they have enough time on the highlight reels to show this?
Thirdly this week, the Raiders of Oakland go head-to-head at scrimmage at Kansas. Recent history between the two is in favour to Oakland 3-0, though this fact won’t be enough to see them through. Aside from rushing 9-12, they are out-ranked in the other three areas of the game outside of Special Teams at 22-17 offence, 17-7 defence and 27-20 passing. Jamaal Charles is a big reason why the Chiefs are undefeated so far, and this will remain the case, as Charles will improve on his three rushing TDs at 4.3 yards on average from 92 carries totalling 397 yards, added to his pair of touchdowns on the receiving end at an average of 8.9 YPR with 250 yards off 28 completions. Chiefs won’t be as dominant, but they will still leave as they came – perfect.
Of the teams on a bye, the Falcons will be desperate to get back on the field as they are yet to lose by more than a TD, so they aren’t getting steamrolled, although coming off a two-point loss to the Jets will hurt them more than if they were to come back this week – however they won’t be taking much comfort from a 1-4 record. The Dolphins will have the easier time of it with their 3-2 record.
I think it’s a safe bet to say that, at the season’s quarter point, any team not over .500 are not going to making it to the playoffs, and for a field which at this moment includes in no particular order, Giants (2007 & 2011 SB Champions), Steelers, Vikings, Jaguars, Buccaneers, Falcons, and the Redskins; it includes some quite big names.
There are also some teams that are over .500 such as Dolphins, Jets, Seahawks and Bears that I don’t expect will be there either, but we will see if it will even itself up by week 17. The Seahawks have a decent 2nd year QB in Russell Wilson, but it will take a couple more years maturing before I see a big playoff run for the Hawks. When this happens, he will cut down on the fumbles, and with a career pass completion of 62.7% that will rise to around 65% with a possible run for the Super Bowl.