NFL: Week 11 Predictions
Week 10 was the week of huge QB injuries, Big Ben Roethlisberger, Alex Smith and Jay Cutler went down in their respective games, changing the plans of three play-off chasing teams.
Last week also saw the inevitable Jags loss, the inevitable New England shootout and the inevitable hundred yard game from Arian Foster. But it also had the first loss of the year for the Atlanta Falcons and the first tied game of this season between the Rams and the 49’ers, so what could this week have in store?
[Last Week: 10-4] [Season: 88-58]
Friday 1:20am
Miami Dolphins 23-27 Buffalo Bills
The Bills’ defense never had a chance of limiting the Pats to under 35 points, but this week they welcome a Dolphins unit that only managed 3 against the previously leaky Titans D. Ryan Fitzpatrick had a good game until it really mattered last Sunday, and if he has as good a game on Thursday night, he will give his team a good shot against a fairly poor Miami team who are flattered by their record of 4-5. CJ Spiller back in at RB could be the difference in this one though; he’s one of the most explosive players in the league and can beat you by himself.
Sunday 6:00pm
Arizona Cardinals 16-23 Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons finally lost their unbeaten record last week, when the Saints exposed Atlanta’s average defense to outscore their potent offense. This week provides an opportunity for the Dirty Birds to bounce back against a Cardinals team who were in freefall before their bye week, and with the options they have at QB, that doesn’t look like changing to enough effect so that they can spring an upset here. The Cardinals’ D is a very good unit, and could keep this game close, but in the Georgia Dome, you have to favour the Falcons to go 9-1.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24-27 Carolina Panthers
Tampa Bay have transformed themselves from a lower-rung team into a play-off contender in the space of three weeks, and their offense is beginning to worry defensive co-ordinators all over the league, and Carolina’s poor defense is their next target. But it isn’t just Carolina’s defense who should be worried in this one, Tampa’s D hasn’t put up any great stats this year either, so this could become a shootout. The injuries to the Bucs’ defense, especially Quincy Black last week, could leave Tampa vulnerable to a momentum killing defeat here, and Cam Newton’s offense will be keen to prove the doubters wrong.
Cleveland Browns 13-27 Dallas Cowboys
While Cleveland seem to have solidified into a half-decent team, the Cowboys are really on the up after a very important blowout of Philadelphia and what started the season as an inconsistent, talented team, has a big chance to make a run at the playoffs now, especially considering the Giants’ loss last week. They won’t waste this opportunity, and watch out for Dallas as the season goes on.
Green Bay Packers 31-27 Detroit Lions
Detroit are just a team that I can’t work out. Last week, Calvin Johnson racked up 200 yards receiving, and they still managed to lose against the Minnesota Vikings, in part due to a monster performance from Adrian Peterson. Now if the Packers can get their run game going in this one, and can create a balanced offense, the Lions can’t win, because no matter how good Matt Stafford is, he can’t keep up with Aaron Rodgers and a flowing Packers offense. I think the opportunistic Green Bay D could cause a few turnovers here too, even if Clay Matthews doesn’t make it.
Jacksonville Jaguars 6-34 Houston Texans
Do I even have to explain that Arian Foster and co. should dismantle this poor Jaguars team? The only danger is that coming off of a hard trip to Chicago, the Texans will be tired and lose concentration, but I can’t see it happening.
Cincinnati Bengals 26-16 Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs really put up a fight against the Steelers on Monday night, and maybe this could be an indicator that some of the talented players on the Chiefs’ roster are finally beginning to play up to their qualities. But don’t forget that Big Ben left the game early, and Pittsburgh didn’t have Rashard Mendenhall or Antonio Brown. The Bengals on the other hand, put down a huge statement by dominating the Giants, and if they really are the real deal, they have to win this. With AJ Green in all-pro form, it shouldn’t prove too much of a problem.
New York Jets 10-20 St Louis Rams
It’s all going a bit wrong in New York right now, and Gang Green have fallen victim to infighting, criticism and desperation, with no real chance of seeing the end of the tunnel yet. The Rams played a great game against the Niners and arguably deserved their tie, and if they can play defense as well as they did on the West coast, they should have enough to beat the Jets. Watch for a big day on the ground from Steven Jackson and Daryl Richardson.
Philadelphia Eagles 27-23 Washington Redskins
This will probably be week 2 of the Nick Foles trial in Philly, and fortunately for him, he faces a much easier defense than the Dallas D he faced (and did quite well against) last week. However, with Foles in at QB, you would imagine the Eagles’ offensive gameplan would involve LeSean McCoy running the rock more, which makes the Eagles instantly a better team, and one capable of beating teams like the RG3skins.
Sunday 9:05pm
New Orleans Saints 41-27 Oakland Raiders
Uh oh, points ahoy! The Raiders gave up 55 to the Ravens last week, just imagine what Drew Brees will do to them… makes me shiver. But equally, Oakland are throwing the ball all over the place, and the Saints’ D isn’t exactly a work of art either, so whatever it says on the over/under coupon, put OVER. But if you’re betting the money line, the Saints are the team with confidence and momentum, and should win this as they are better on both sides of the ball.
Sunday 9:25pm
San Diego Chargers 17-30 Denver Broncos
The Broncos are winning every game in sight right now, ad with the slumping Chargers coming to town, they must be confident of adding another win to their record. The pick that Philip Rivers threw last week was one of the worse football decisions I have ever seen made, so for that reason alone, I was going to pick Denver, but in every category the Broncos are just a better team, so at home, this should be a comfortable one.
Indianapolis Colts 27-34 New England Patriots
Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bills ran this Patriots team close last week, so with Andrew Luck at QB, the Colts have a real live chance of going to Boston and getting something out of this game. However, this is the first week that we could see the effect that Bill Belichick’s latest free agent signing, Aqib Talib, could have on the ‘since time began’ New England coverage problem. Even if he only plays a few snaps, he is an impressively athletic cover corner and can only help a defense that has had problems. The key in this one could be the fact that Vontae Davis is out for Indy, and any weaknesses on the back end will be ruthlessly exploited by Tom Brady and co.
Monday 1:20am
Baltimore Ravens 16-13 Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh has been decimated by injuries, and even if they manage to get Rashard Mendenhall back out onto the field this week, the Steelers look to have no choice but to play conservatively on offense while stepping up BIG TIME on defense. This could become a big-hitting, nasty affair at Heinz Field where veteran defensive players have a huge impact on the game, whether they are Lawrence Timmins, Ed Reed or Haloti Ngata. One youthful defensive player, Jimmy Smith has just had groin surgery, weakening the Ravens’ defense further, and Mike Wallace should take advantage of that, but whether that will be enough to keep up with the Ravens’ confident, balanced offense is another question.
Tuesday 1:30am
Chicago Bears 17-20 San Francisco 49’ers
At 7-2, you wouldn’t imagine the Bears’ loss at home to Houston was too much of a blow, but I have a feeling it could be huge for them. With Jay Cutler going down and a beating down of their confidence, one loss could turn into two here in San Francisco against a 49’ers team ruing some missed opportunities last week. Jason Campbell’s life could be made hell by the San Francisco pass rush, and their best chance will be to get Matt Forte involved as much as possible, both running the ball, and in the checkdown game. Even so, this just feels like a slippery slope kind of game for the Bears, especially if Alex Smith returns for the Niners at QB.
