NFL: Week 12 Predictions
Well wasn’t last week a very strange, odd week of the NFL? With one quarter left in the early games, I was on track for a very poor performance, but by the end of Monday Night Football, by hook or by crook I have ended up keeping my record very respectably intact if I say so myself!
God himself only knows how Chad Henne and the Jags took the Texans to OT, while Dallas almost made a mess of a home tie against Cleveland and Philadelphia just plain gave up.
Week 12 is Thanksgiving in the US, and as we don’t have this celebration in the UK, I like to create my own ‘Thanksgiving’ celebration, giving thanks for the Football we shall receive.
So cook a turkey, crack open some beers, make yourself comfortable and prepare for another rollercoaster week of the NFL.
Thursday 5:30pm
Houston Texans 27-20 Detroit Lions (Money Line betting – Texans 4/7 @ Ladbrokes)
As every thanksgiving, we start in Detroit where the Lions welcome the Texans, who seem suddenly vulnerable after almost being turned over by the Jags last week. Their pass defense was surprisingly weak, and Arian Foster never got going on offense, leaving Matt Schaub to do all the work, throwing for over 500 yards. The Lions’ defeat to Green Bay all but ends their playoff hopes, and their defensive struggles, especially in the secondary, were their undoing. I expect this matchup to be a real battle up front, and both offensive lines will have their hands full, but after their scare last week, the Texans will be really ready for business and have their sights set on being the AFC’s no. 1 seed.
Thursday 9:15pm
Washington Redskins 23-27 Dallas Cowboys (Money Line betting – Cowboys 10/17 @ William Hill)
The Boys made terribly hard work of the Browns at home, and it is a necessity that they win this one as well to keep pace with the Giants for a playoff place. Tony Romo needs to take care of the football and Dallas needs Rob Ryan’s defense to have a plan for how to deal with RGIII and his big play ability, because if they don’t, Griffin will make this a very uncomfortable game for them. But even though I said last week that it was tough to trust the Cowboys, last week’s grinding win showed that they have the mental strength to do things right, lets see if they can build on that.
Friday 1:20am
New England Patriots 30-20 New York Jets (Money Line betting – Patriots 1/3 @ Paddy Power)
58 points on the board, and Rob Gronkowski breaks his arm while in protecting an XP attempt. What effect this could have on the rest of the Patriots’ season is yet to be seen, but it could end up that Bill Belichick rues that seemingly innocuous decision by the end of the year. The Jets found some offense last week and Mark Sanchez had a good game, so that means that this week, it is more than likely that the Patriots’ opportunistic defense will make him look bad again, even though he will throw for the customary 250+ yards that the Pats’ D loves giving opposing QB’s. Not having Gronk around will hurt New England, but I think they do enough here to get by without him for now.
Sunday 6:00pm
Atlanta Falcons 34-27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Money Line betting – Falcons 10/11 @ bwin)
How can a QB throw FIVE interceptions and his team still win the game? Matt Ryan achieved this dubious honour last week, killing fantasy teams across the land… cough. But you can be sure that this week will herald a return to form for the dirty birds’ QB against one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Having sad that, Tampa Bay have been playing some serious football on offense themselves, so I would expect this one to be a shootout between two teams with threats all over the field. The Falcons have sneaked their way to 9-1 with small-margin victories in quite a few games, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the same happened this weekend in Tampa.
Buffalo Bills 27-24 Indianapolis Colts (Money Line betting – Bills 25/17 @ Paddy Power)
Andrew Luck and the Colts need to forget last week and start again. They have the talent to win this game at home against the Bills, but if they put together a defensive showing like they did against New England, they won’t beat anyone. If they really harbour any playoff hopes, they need to win games like this against middle of the road teams at home. Unfortunately for them, it seems that the Buffalo defense is finally beginning to gel and produce the way they were expected to. CJ Spiller is also firing on all cylinders and the 1st round pick can be the difference in any game, especially ones like this.
Denver Broncos 35-10 Kansas City Chiefs (Money Line betting – Broncos 1/5 @ BetVictor)
No matter who the Chiefs put at QB, they do not have enough to win a game of football at the moment, let alone one with Peyton Manning as the opposing signal-caller. Denver’s defense is balling out right now as well, so this could be embarrassing at home for Kansas City.
Minnesota Vikings 19-16 Chicago Bears (Money Line betting – Vikings 24/13 @ bwin)
The Bears are reeling from two painful losses to playoff contending sides, and those two losses highlighted their fatal flaw as a football team. Their offensive line gave Aldon Smith 5.5 sacks on Monday night, and you can imagine Jared Allen sat at home bouncing off the walls, ready to inflict major pain on Jason Campbell again. Matt Forte is the key to Chicago’s game plan, and if they can’t get the running game going, they will struggle. Just so happens that the Vikings are good against the run, and will keep the ball away from the Bears’ turnover machine defense with Adrian Peterson running the rock 25 times at least. I can see a upset at Soldier Field in a close game, letting the Bears’ slide continue.
Oakland Raiders 20-34 Cincinnati Bengals (Money Line betting – Bengals 4/15 @ BoyleSports)
Oakland’s defense is an absolute disaster right now, so when you throw AJ Green and Jermaine Gresham into the mix, there’s only one outcome, even if the Raiders’ offense has more targets for Carson Palmer than can fit on the roster.
Pittsburgh Steelers 13-17 Cleveland Browns (Money Line betting – Browns 20/21 @ Paddy Power)
Cleveland is in every game they play right now, and if the Steelers don’t bring their A-game to Ohio this Sunday, they could find themselves on the end of a massive defeat in the context of the AFC North. Pittsburgh’s injuries have lead them to sign QB Brian Hoyer and bring back WR Plaxico Burress into the organisation, and while their workloads are yet to be determined, going straight into Cleveland in November is a tough task. I can see Trent Richardson carrying the Browns to a huge win here, especially if Joe Haden is back for them, but this will almost certainly be another AFC North smashmouth encounter.
Seattle Seahawks 20-10 Miami Dolphins (Money Line betting – Seahawks 4/6 @ William Hill)
I expect this to be a defensive battle in Miami, decided by running backs and defensive line play. When you look at these two teams, they are strong in those areas, but the most consistent and reliable team in both areas is Seattle, who have Marshawn Lynch in Pro Bowl form right now, and he could be the difference.
Tennessee Titans 31-17 Jacksonville Jaguars (Money Line betting – Titans 4/6 @ SkyBet)
Now then Jacksonville… Where did that come from? Chad Henne and Justin Blackmon burst out of nowhere to give the Texans a real fright last week, and if they can keep that up, you would think they would be a real threat to the Titans. However, after a bye week and time to get some players back healthy, I expect the Titans to put together a decent end to their year. Jake Locker could well have his best day as a pro against a Jags’ D that gave up 500+ yards in the air last week, and fantasy owners of Kenny Britt (ME) will hopefully be rewarded for their patience with 100+ yards and a TD.
Sunday 9:05pm
Baltimore Ravens 24-20 San Diego Chargers (Money Line betting – Ravens 28/29 @ 32RedBet)
The Ravens are seriously banged up on defense, and Ed Reed’s suspension won’t help at all. It gives the Chargers hope in a game that, four weeks ago, they would have probably written off. But even with these defensive injuries, the Ravens held the Steelers at Heinz Field and if they bring the same intensity to San Diego, Philip Rivers will have a hard time staying on his feet. Baltimore’s offense is now as potent as it ever has been, and even if the Chargers take advantage of their defensive issues, I can’t see them keeping up with an offense that is getting better and better.
Sunday 9:25pm
San Francisco 49’ers 30-23 New Orleans Saints (Money Line betting – 49’ers 10/11 @ Coral)
The Saints are really playing well now, after a horrible start to the year, and I expect them to give the Niners a run for their money. But after watching the domination of the Bears on Monday night, I can’t go with anything less than a win for San Francisco, their defense played as well as it has done since last year, and if they can make plays on offense again, they will put a huge dent in Drew Brees’ playoff ambitions.
St Louis Rams 10-23 Arizona Cardinals (Money Line betting – Cardinals 20/27 @ Bet365)
The Cards picked off Matt Ryan 5 times last week and still lost, this tells you all you need to know about their offense. LaRod Stephens-Howling had a great game last week, and if they can find a QB who can manage the game, they should have a chance of winning this one against a Rams team that is inconsistent at best, and at worst, like last week against the Jets, is poor. They should have a chance to break their 6 game slide this weekend, and Patrick Peterson hasn’t returned a punt to the house in a while… #JustSaying
Monday 1:20am
Green Bay Packers 27-30 New York Giants (Money Line betting – Giants 20/27 @ William Hill)
This is the game of the weekend for me, and involves two teams with Superbowl ambitions at differing stages of their seasons. The Giants and Eli Manning are stuttering, while Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are beginning to hit their stride. Both defenses will give up yards, but this could come down to red-zone defense and turnovers, two categories where the Packers have traditionally come up big in big games. But the Giants have an equally opportunistic defense, and the Packers’ offensive line struggles could lead to quite a few opportunities to make plays. In this era’s NFL, protecting your QB is the most important thing for a team to do, and no matter how good Aaron Rodgers’ mobility is, the pressure coming at him is sure to be immense, so I’ll side with the Giants at home to snap back to form.
Tuesday 1:30am
Carolina Panthers 24-20 Philadelphia Eagles (Money Line betting – Panthers 4/5 @ bwin)
The Eagles gave up on Andy Reid last week. That is the awful truth of it all, that a fantastic coach like Reid has lost his own dressing room in Philadelphia and the players don’t seem to want to win for him. Cam Newton and the Panthers put together a much improved performance against the Bucs, and were unfortunate to lose in OT, and if they do the same again against this Eagles team, they can pull out a win. I really worry for Reid, it may be best for him to go before he is pushed, with his dignity intact, but if his team put in another abject performance, he may not get that choice.
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