NFL: Week 14 Predictions

With four games left in the regular season, there is still so much to play for in the NFL, from first round playoff byes to wild card playoff slots and, of course, there will be those playing for their jobs – both coaches and players.

Week 13 was the week of the Rookie Curse, where Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Greg Zuerlein and Russell Wilson all produced late heroics to consign not only their opponents to despair, but me too. A week with a 9-7 record at this stage of the season is a killer, but let’s see if I can do a better job with this week’s picks – we start this week in Oakland with an easy one.

Friday 1:20am

Denver Broncos 34-10 Oakland Raiders (Broncos to win – 4/21 @ Ladbrokes)

Peyton’s playoff bound Broncos travel to Oakland to play the defensively inept Raiders on Thursday Night Football, and for those fans who enjoy watching touchdowns and Hall-of-Fame bound players destroying other teams, this one should be perfect. A simple Denver win, by a few touchdowns… at least.

Sunday 6:00pm

St Louis Rams 17-23 Buffalo Bills (Bills to win – 4/6 @ William Hill)

The Rams really do pick up their game at home, beating the Niners last week, but when they are on their travels, they’re not so good. The Bills aren’t so good wherever they play, so this one has to potential to be a turgid affair. The keys to this one will be the ability of the Rams to stop CJ Spiller and the Bills’ running game and the St Louis offensive line’s efforts in protecting Sam Bradford. I’m taking the Bills to come out on top of both of those categories in a close game.

Atlanta Falcons 30-20 Carolina Panthers (Falcons to win – 5/9 @ William Hill)

The Falcons’ defensive effort against Drew Brees and the Saints was a real ‘wow’ moment in their season, and if they can build on the 5 interceptions they took away in the Georgia Dome, then Cam Newton will have more than his hands full. Carolina played KC in a difficult atmosphere last week, but that doesn’t excuse a very poor defensive effort allowing Brady Quinn to look good, and if he looked good, Matt Ryan should look like Joe Montana.

Dallas Cowboys 20-31 Cincinnati Bengals (Bengals to win – 8/13 @ Paddy Power)

The Cowboys’ win over the Eagles tells you a lot about the team: they score a lot of points, and when Tony Romo is good, he’s REALLY good (10 of 10, 136 yards and 3TD’s in the second half). It also tells you that they give up 33 points to a rookie QB/RB combination who have played just one game in the league. Then, if you look at the Bengals; who are improving defensively, and have a 2nd year QB in Andy Dalton who is playing some seriously good football with some serious weapons in AJ Green and Jermaine Gresham, then you will see who wins this game. Rob Ryan’s defense can’t stop the run or the pass, and against Cincinnati, this will prove to be the killer to their playoff hopes, and probably to Jason Garrett’s tenure as Dallas coach.

Kansas City Chiefs 13-23 Cleveland Browns (Browns to win – 4/11 @ BetVictor)

A horrible week for Kansas City had a relatively nice ending, with a long-awaited win over the Panthers, but the wave of emotion can only carry this ball club so far. A trip to cold Cleveland should halt their newfound momentum, and if that doesn’t do it, a heavy dose of Trent Richardson will. The rookie RB has been sensational this year, becoming an instant stud in the league due to his ability to do anything. Through the tackles, off-tackle, draw plays, catching the ball and pass blocking are just a few skills that he seems to have mastered already, and the Chiefs simply do not have the tools to keep him under wraps. This is all not even mentioning the Browns’ defense which, especially since the return of Joe Haden at corner, has been a very good unit.

Tennessee Titans 24-34 Indianapolis Colts (Colts to win – 4/9 @ BetVictor)

This one is simple, both teams have leaky defenses, and both teams have offenses with potential to score a lot of points. But only one team has Andrew Luck, that team is 8-4. The no.1 pick from the 2012 draft is being talked about in some circles as league MVP, not rookie of the year, MVP.

New York Jets 13-10 Jacksonville Jaguars (Jets to win – 20/27 @ Sky Bet)

Another potentially horrible game featuring the Jets, and I can’t see this one hitting 30 points. The Jags don’t have a running game to hurt New York, and the Jets don’t have a passing game to hurt the Jags. But Rex Ryan’s bunch loves a fight, so I’ll go with the Jets to win two poor games on the bounce.

Chicago Bears 27-17 Minnesota Vikings (Bears to win – 4/6 @ William Hill)

The loss to Seattle was an absolute killer to Chicago, it let Green Bay back into the race for the NFC North and included injuries to Tim Jennings and Brian Urlacher, two essential parts of this Bears defense. The Vikings were the victim of Green Bay’s fightback in the race for the division despite an amazing 200 yard performance from Adrian Peterson, and that is a huge issue. If AP can do that and still be on the losing side, there are some real problems on both sides of the ball for the Vikings, problems that the Bears will exploit.

San Diego Chargers 13-20 Pittsburgh Steelers (Steelers to win – 1/3 @ bwin)

Take a bow Charlie Batch! His performance against the Ravens was sensational, and could have bought him another start, and more importantly, another week of rest and healing for Big Ben. However, sentimentality aside, the Chargers’ defense is tougher opposition than the Baltimore unit right now and Batch will do very well to replicate his performance. You would think that this gives San Diego a chance in this one, but the Steelers’ defense just got Troy Polamalu back, a player that can be the difference in any game, especially a game with an out of touch Philip Rivers involved. This should be a low scoring one, but Rivers’ mistakes could be the difference.

Philadelphia Eagles 20-27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Buccaneers to win – 3/10 @ Sky Bet)

Nick Foles and Bryce Brown (fumbling aside) have a lot of potential and really could become huge parts of the Eagles’ team, but after firing half of the coaching staff, they are a team in transition now with guys playing for their futures on the team rather than wins. The Bucs were handled by Denver last week, but this is the perfect opportunity to bounce back, and Josh Freeman, Doug Martin and Vincent Jackson should all have a good day. The Bucs are building up a really good team, and next year could be very interesting in the NFC South.

Baltimore Ravens 20-24 Washington Redskins (Redskins to win – 20/27 @ SportingBet)

The Ravens’ loss against the Steelers exposed their defensive limitations to the maximum, and now they’ve lost Terrell Suggs to a torn triceps, RG3 should have another very nice day. Joe Flacco away from home is terrible, this is a fact, so the game will rest on Ray Rice’s shoulders… or it would if Cam Cameron would give him the ball more than 15 times a game. I’m jumping on the Griffin-wagon, and seeing a late run towards the playoffs for the Redskins, that option offense is a nightmare to defend.

Sunday 9:05pm

Miami Dolphins 9-23 San Francisco 49’ers (49’ers to win – 1/5 @ William Hill)

Credit to the Dolphins for keeping it relatively close with the Patriots last week, but they encounter a whole different proposition in the Niners’ defense this week. Ryan Tannehill will be running for his life without Jake Long at tackle, and it could become messy if they fail to establish some kind of running game. Colin Kaepernick won’t have it easy though, Miami racked up four sacks of Tom Brady last week, and are very good at stopping the run, but their pass defense will be their downfall, and Michael Crabtree could have a good day.

Sunday 9:25pm

New Orleans Saints 24-27 New York Giants (Giants to win – 4/9 @ Stan James)

Both of these teams suffered huge losses last week, Drew Brees threw 5 interceptions in their crushing loss to the Falcons while Eli Manning just couldn’t muster enough to beat the RG3-skins. While the Giants’ playoff hopes are alive and kicking, the Saints’ hang by a thread and they have to win out to have any chance of making the post-season, but as they get more and more desperate, they rely on Drew Brees more. Over the past few weeks it is clear that this hasn’t worked for the Saints, and while their defense is improving all the time, if Brees continues to force things, their offense won’t fire. The x-factor in this one could be Ahmad Bradshaw, as the Saints are horrible against the run.

Arizona Cardinals 6-16 Seattle Seahawks (Seahawks to win – 2/9 @ BetVictor)

When you look at the Cardinals you have to remember two things: 1-Their QB’s are terrible… all of them. (John Skelton gets to show his general rubbishness this weekend.) 2- Their offensive line is one of the most horrible units in the league. The Seahawks win again in a defensive smash-fest.

Monday 1:20am

Detroit Lions 20-30 Green Bay Packers (Packers to win – 5/14 @ Ladbrokes)

For the Pack, this is the biggest game of the year against their divisional rivals at Lambeau Field. It is also a huge potential banana skin. Although the Lions’ defense is poor, their offense seems to have clicked into gear, even though they won’t be making the playoffs. The torn ACL for Ryan Broyles will hurt Detroit, but the Packers’ defense is weak enough to be exploited by Mike Williams anyway. The game will rest on the shoulders of Aaron Rodgers, and with Greg Jennings back to replace the injured Jordy Nelson, the receiving corps of Green Bay should run riot in the Lions’ secondary, so I’ll take them to overcome this dangerous game.

Tuesday 1:30am

Houston Texans 23-27 New England Patriots (Patriots to win – 4/7 @ SportingBet)

What a game for Monday Night Football, the two best teams in the AFC facing off at Foxboro’. There are two trends that point in the direction of a result to me: the first is that the Texans have been struggling on defense, especially against the pass, with Brian Cushing and Jonathan Joseph out, and if the Pats can find a way to keep JJ Watt quiet, they will have some success. The second is that the Patriots have been good against the run this year, and the running game is key to the Houston offense. If New England can keep Arian Foster running down the middle, into the arms of Vince Wilfork and Brandon Spikes, I think the Pats can put down a real statement and win this. The unknown here is how the secondary will deal with Andre Johnson, but no matter how they do, the game should have a few points in it, but shootouts are Tom Brady’s speciality.