NFL: Week 16 Predictions (with added stud) – Part I
In what was labelled #StatementSunday, week 15’s games were surprising, interesting and confusing in equal matter. For those of you who do power rankings, I would be surprised if you have any hair left, as while your top 7 or 8 teams may be the same, the order is just impossible to judge right now.
By the end of 15 weeks, you would expect the playoff picture to be predictable, but in many cases, it is as clear as mud at the moment (see NFC East). But this week will really sift through the mud, and it is the last chance for many teams, players and coaches to play in January.
As many of you will be playing for your fantasy championships this week, I have also picked a player for you to rely on in every game.
Sunday 1:30am
Atlanta Falcons 34-24 Detroit Lions
Lions made some horrendous mistakes last week in their loss to Arizona, and if they come out in the same shape again, Falcons will destroy them. Atlanta’s beat down of Giants was hugely impressive, more so in the shutout than offensively, but it really underlined that they can perform when they need to. A win this weekend wraps up a first week bye and home advantage throughout the playoffs.
Fantasy Stud: TE – ATL – Tony Gonzalez : Needs 120 yards for 1000 receiving on the season, and in what could be his last year in the NFL, Matt Ryan will want to help him get there. Against Detroit’s poor secondary, expect 60 yards and a TD, Gonzalez is one of Ryan’s favourite targets in the redzone.
Sunday 6:00pm
Oakland Raiders 16-31 Carolina Panthers
Oakland snapped their losing run last week against KC thanks to 5 swings of ‘Sea Bass’’ leg, but despite the improvement on their defense, don’t forget Romeo Crennell only gave Jamaal Charles 10 carries for KC. Cam Newton’s Panthers are finishing the season really strongly, and will look to put on a show for their home fans.
Fantasy Stud: QB – CAR – Cam Newton : Cam should have some fun come Sunday, so expect 250 yards passing with 2 TD’s and 80 yards rushing with a TD, big time points.
New Orleans Saints 34-30 Dallas Cowboys
This is a much more confusing game to pick than it would have been last week after Drew Brees and the Saints dismantled the promising Buccaneers 41-0. I’m going to put that on Josh Freeman’s struggles more than the Saints’ defense, but New Orleans stepped up on both sides of the ball. Dallas keep grinding out important wins, most notably against Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, but this game will show whether they are good enough for the playoffs.
Fantasy Stud: WR – DAL – Miles Austin : Dez Bryant will draw extra attention, and 10 targets last week for Austin bodes well for this week against a weak Saints secondary. I’m expecting 80 yards and a TD from Miles.
Tennessee Titans 13-27 Green Bay Packers
The Packers are getting players back from injuries and are hitting stride just at the right time, while the Titans are still a work in progress. Jake Locker is not yet a fully-fledged NFL QB and the defense, while improving, won’t be able to deal with Aaron Rodgers and his new favourite weapon Randall Cobb, who is tormenting the league in a Percy Harvin style way.
Fantasy Stud: WR – GB – Randall Cobb : This guy is so explosive that when he gets the ball, he’s almost guaranteed 10 yards after the catch, so if he gets 6 targets, that’s 60 yards. I would be disappointed if he didn’t reach 80 yards and a TD this week.
Minnesota Vikings 10-34 Houston Texans
Adrian Peterson is a machine. He’s got his eyes on the record, and this week he comes up against the 5th ranked run defense in Houston. But this week could be the week that the dream of the record dies. Houston will stack the box on every play and dare the wobbly Christian Ponder to beat them, which he won’t. If Ponder makes a hash of managing the pass game, this could get out of hand, as this matchup is a nightmare for Minnesota.
Fantasy Stud: D – Houston Texans : If the Texans force the game onto Ponder’s shoulders successfully, there will be sacks, fumbles and interceptions to feast on. I’m predicting 4 sacks, 2 interceptions and a fumble recovery… stick a defensive TD in there as well. That’s 20+ points added to your total.
New England Patriots 41-14 Jacksonville Jaguars
The Pats will be really annoyed at their first-half performance against San Francisco, and if they repeat their 12 minute, 28 point salvo against the Jags, this could get messy. The Patriots need to win to keep any hopes of a first week bye alive, and they will do, by a lot.
Fantasy Stud: TE – NE – Aaron Hernandez : Hernandez has seen a multitude of targets in the past couple of weeks, and I can’t see Rob Gronkowski being risked in this one, so that will continue. I can see a huge day for Tom Brady’s redzone friend Hernandez, with around 70 yards receiving and 2 TD’s.
Indianapolis Colts 27-10 Kansas City Chiefs
Andrew Luck is continuing to lead his team towards the playoffs despite a tough loss to the Texans last week, but he should be able to bounce back against a team who may be forced into starting Ricky Stanzi at QB… ouch. The Chiefs need to start getting the ball into Jamaal Charles’ hands more, or the shutout in Oakland could become a more regular occurrence. KC are playing the ‘suck-for-luck’ game that Indy played last year, so this one should be straight forward.
Fantasy Stud: RB – IND – Vick Ballard : The rookie runner has established himself in Indy and has performed very well in the past two weeks. Darren McFadden ran for 110 yards last week, but while Ballard might not live up to that yardage, he’s the goal line back for Indy, so expect 75 yards and a TD, a nice flex play.
Buffalo Bills 13-20 Miami Dolphins
The Bills were terrible again last week, and the question has to be asked, where did all that money spent on the defense go? The Bills are poor against the run and the pass, and their offense isn’t firing at all, despite the bright spark that is CJ Spiller. The Dolphins on the other hand have a defense that is one of the better units in the league, and a rookie QB in Ryan Tannehill who is steadily improving, so this game goes to the home team.
Fantasy Stud: None. This game doesn’t stand out for any particular reason in fantasy-land, avoid players from Buffalo, and Miami players aren’t going to be the best option out there.
San Diego Chargers 16-6 New York Jets
Mark Sanchez’s time in New York could well be over after his 4 INT performance in Tennessee, and the Greg McElroy trial begins. But what about Tim Tebow?… No, I wouldn’t do that to you. I like to think this article has some integrity. The Chargers got rolled over by the Panthers last week but this is the Jets, you stop their running game, and they’ll give you chances to win, especially with a new QB in.
Fantasy Stud: RB – SD – Jackie Battle : Now this is tentative, but with Ryan Mathews on IR (AGAIN) and with Ronnie Brown struggling, Battle has a chance to carve out some value as both the regular running back and the goal line back. While his yardage total may not be huge, a touchdown could be helpful for owners; I’m calling 60 yards and a TD.
Washington Redskins 27-20 Philadelphia Eagles
Who’d have thought that both the Skins and the Colts could make the playoffs with their no.1 and 2 picks at QB from the 2012 Draft? Well if Washington beat the Eagles here, then that is a scenario we will be facing, and it’s one that has a good chance of happening no matter who is at QB for the Redskins. I lauded Kirk Cousins before the draft and he proved his worth last week in an exciting performance against the Browns, but RG3 may come back this week to put the hammer down on the work-in-progress of Philadelphia.
Fantasy Stud: RB – WAS – Alfred Morris : This rookie has been a revelation in the Capital, and this matchup is a favourable one. Expect 100 yards and a TD for Morris, important for Washington and for your fantasy teams.
Cincinnati Bengals 20-23 Pittsburgh Steelers
I would call this the biggest game of the weekend, and typical to the AFC North, it could become an attritional affair despite the offensive potential on both sides. This is the chance for Cincinnati to show it has stepped up to the level where it can break the domination of the big two in this division. A win would mark the handover of power, but I just have a feeling that at Heinz field, in the cold, the experience of the Steelers will prove the most important factor in a close game.
Fantasy Stud: K – PIT – Shaun Suisham : A kicker? I hear you cry. But Suisham could be the most important man in this game if the Steelers play to keep the game close, and his leg could be the difference between winning and losing. I’m predicting 11 points through 3 FG’s and 2 XP’s.
St Louis Rams 24-20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I’m not sure what happened to the Bucs last week, maybe it was an off day, but maybe it was the result of giving up on the season a few weeks early. The Rams are fighting for every yard still, and against the Bucs’ poor secondary, their receivers should have an excellent day and their defense is a decent unit.
Fantasy Stud: WR – STL – Danny Amendola : There will be holes in this Tampa secondary that Sam Bradford will enjoy picking apart, and his favourite target Amendola should benefit to the tune of 80 yards and a TD.
(Editor’s note – No betting this week with the fantasy stud selections, but to find out the best odds if you want a flutter visit www.oddschecker.com)