NFL week 3 predictions
This season has to be one of the most unpredictable in the modern era; right now, it seems that on any given Sunday, any team has the capability to beat anyone else. There have been shocks, surprises and seemingly impossible upsets and we’ve only just got past week 2! Predictions-wise, all this unpredictability has been a nightmare for me, and I’m currently sporting a pathetic 15-17 record. But it all changes in week 3, and I’m going above .500, here’s how it begins on Thursday night…
Friday 1:20am
New York Giants 34-27 Carolina Panthers
Eli Manning threw for over 500 yards against the Bucs on Sunday, and Victor Cruz overcame his week 1 jitters to post huge numbers, and against the Panthers’ defense, you would expect that kind of offensive explosion to continue. However, Cam Newton’s Panthers aren’t exactly weak on offense, and outgunned Drew Brees and the Saints at home. The Giants’ defense is better than the train wreck that is the Saints’ D, and their notorious pass-rush will have to show up in Carolina to make sure that the reigning champs go 2-1, as the secondary isn’t looking great. It’ll be another shootout for these two sides, but one I fancy Eli to come out on top of.
Sunday 6:00pm
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17-30 Dallas Cowboys
Tampa’s offense kicked into gear against the Giants on Sunday, but they will face a whole new test in Rob Ryan’s Dallas defense in Arlington. The Cowboys were very disappointing in their 27-7 loss to the Seahawks in Seattle, and will be looking to bounce back, and that starts with re-establishing DeMarco Murray’s run game, something the Bucs have struggled against for a while, they can’t stop anyone running on them. If Murray goes for 100 yards and a TD, Dallas wins the game, even though I really like what Greg Schiano is doing in Tampa, especially with Doug Martin, Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams (remember him!?)
Jacksonville Jaguars 20-33 Indianapolis Colts
Andrew Luck isn’t making as instant an impact as RG3 is, but he is growing into the league gradually, and that is helping his team grow as a result. The Colts aren’t a team loaded with talent, but they have a good work ethic and a real desire to prove people wrong. Their defense is weak, and Maurice Jones-Drew will expose that, but while I fully expect him to run for around 120 yards and 2TD’s, I’m not convinced by Blaine Gabbert or the Jags’ defense. Luck has the skills and the weapons in Reggie Wayne and rookie TE Coby Fleener to tear Jacksonville apart, and if they can make sure they have more time in possession, I think the Colts will go 2-1.
Buffalo Bills 23-16 Cleveland Browns
What should we expect from Buffalo this week? Personally, I think the first week’s shambles was an aberration that won’t happen again. The defense learnt that they had to work together, not just pile everything on Mario Williams, and the offense got lucky in the unearthing of a new NFL star in running back CJ Spiller when Fred Jackson went down injured. Cleveland has a decent defense however, and rookie QB Brandon Weeden really stepped up against Cincinnati on Sunday, throwing for over 300 yards. But it was rookie runner Trent Richardson who burst onto the scene with a 2 TD, 150 combined yard performance, turning heads all around the league. Pre-draft, many were convinced that he was the real deal, and he is just starting out on the path to back that up, including here, where he could prove to be a huge thorn in the Bills’ side. Cleveland have played well and narrowly lost twice, and we could see a similar story here. With Joe Haden, they could win games, without him, they come up short.
New York Jets 23-10 Miami Dolphins
The Jets’ defense is going to cause absolute havoc for Ryan Tannehill on Sunday, that I’m sure of, but what I’m not so sure of is quite how they will suppress the threat of Reggie Bush. They could keep 7 in the box at all times and make Tannehill beat them, or they could constantly blitz and hope that Bush doesn’t break a big run off. Either way, they have to have a plan, because Reggie is running better than he ever has. The Miami offense is centred on him, because when your no. 1 receiver is Brian Hartline, you don’t have a great passing game. The Dolphins don’t have a great pass defense either, and look for Santonio Holmes to have a big day as Mark Sanchez could find him in a lot of space, a lot of the time.
Kansas City Chiefs 30-34 New Orleans Saints
Who thought the Saints would be 0-2? They now find themselves in a situation where they have to dig themselves out of a large hole caused by a defense that is absolutely terrible. They can’t stop the run, they can’t stop the pass, and if Jamaal Charles bounces back from a poor performance against the Bills, they could be in trouble again. But you can’t help but think that, at home in the Superdome, Drew Brees and that offense gives the Saints a big chance against anyone, and especially against a Chiefs defense that has given up 75 points and 7 yards per play (exactly the same as NO). While the Kansas City defense is better than the Saints’ D, the Saints’ offense is much better than the Chiefs’ O, so I’ll take home advantage to be the deciding factor in a shootout with two poor defenses.
Cincinnati Bengals 30-27 Washington Redskins
The Bengals made harder work of the Browns than they should have last week, while RG3 slipped up against the Rams in St Louis, so we have a matchup between two teams who know they can do better. However, the Redskins have just lost Brian Orakpo and Adam Carriker for the season, two huge losses for this Washington defense. They looked very shaky indeed against Sam Bradford and the Rams, and even with a full week’s practice, it is hard to have confidence in the unit. The Bengals D is also riddled with injuries though, so it looks like this game will be decided on who best exploits the opponents’ defensive issues. While RG3 is special, that is without doubt, I think the Bengals’ offense is more balanced and has the more potent weapon in AJ Green, who could be in for a huge day, so I’m siding with Cincinnati.
St Louis Rams 16-27 Chicago Bears
The Bears’ apparently improved offense got handled last week in Green Bay, and Matt Forte went down with an ‘ankle injury’ as described by Lovie Smith. But even if Forte is forced to miss this one, I can still see Chicago bouncing back with a big offensive performance. The Rams upset RG3 last week, but the Chicago defense is an altogether tougher test than Washington’s banged up unit was, and I wouldn’t expect Sam Bradford to have anywhere near the same success. Although what Jeff Fisher has done for the Rams, in making them a competitive team once more with a great deal of potential, is a superb achievement, I think the Bears at Soldier Field are a step too far in their development right now.
San Francisco 49’ers 30-9 Minnesota Vikings
The 49’ers are a complete team. They play with ridiculous intensity on defense, and are extremely efficient on offense, while having one of the game’s best weapons in their obscenely athletic TE Vernon Davis. Even if Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin somehow find holes in the San Francisco D, the Vikings’ defense won’t be able to stop Frank Gore and Alex Smith from picking them apart. I can’t see anything less than a comfortable 49’ers win here.
Detroit Lions 34-20 Tennessee Titans
Something is seriously wrong in Tennessee, and I don’t know what it is. They have talent on both sides of the ball, yet seem to be unable to click at all. The defense has looked a little better than the offense, but even so, has conceded 30+ points to the Patriots and the Chargers. Maybe a full week’s practice with Kenny Britt, Nate Washington, Chris Johnson and Kendall Wright all involved together for the first time will help spark something on offense against the Lions’ banged up secondary, but something needs to happen for the Titans. The Lions fought well against the 49’ers, sticking to a run game and showing good heart, both things that should help them to a win here against a struggling outfit. Matt Stafford needs to make sure he stops forcing things though; he has enough weapons on his team to be a bit more patient while still throwing for a lot of yards, looking for TE Brandon Pettigrew more would help both his completion percentage and my fantasy team!
Sunday 9:05pm
Atlanta Falcons 30-23 San Diego Chargers
One thing I have been right about so far this year is the rise of the Falcons, and Matt Ryan looks like he’s the QB we all saw coming out of college, athletic, poised and accurate. Although Julio Jones didn’t have the best game against Denver, he’s the key to this offense, his combination of size, speed and strength makes him a nightmare to cover and a legitimate no. 1 wideout in the NFL. The Chargers have started 2-0 despite concerns whether their team is as talented as many thought, and the confidence that they are building makes them a dangerous proposition for any team. Philip Rivers has two speedy wideouts in Malcolm Floyd and Robert Meachem who can stretch anyone, while the return of Antonio Gates will be a huge bonus. This could be a very close game, but the way Atlanta’s defense confused Peyton Manning on Monday Night Football really impressed me, and Rivers has always been prone to an interception or two, interceptions that could prove vital in this game.
Philadelphia Eagles 22-13 Arizona Cardinals
This is an intriguing game. The Cardinals showed a real strong side in beating the Patriots on Sunday, even though they were a bit lucky to take the win after Stephen Gostkowski pulled a 40 yard field goal wide. Nevertheless, they limited Tom Brady and co. when they got into Arizona territory and deserved something out of the game, a game where Larry Fitzgerald only had 4 yards receiving. Yep, 4. The Eagles are an enigma, poor against the Browns and excellent against the Ravens, but 2-0 nonetheless. Their offense hinges around whether Michael Vick has a good day or not, and it is imperative that LeSean McCoy continues to run downhill and produce large stat lines week on week, just in case Vick has a nightmare. And it is McCoy who I think will win this game, as he brings an edge of consistency to an offense that is unpredictable at best. The Eagles’ defense is a fearsome unit, and although the Cardinals have spoken of working Fitz into the game more, I think this defense won’t allow Kevin Kolb to keep up with McCoy’s production.
Sunday 9:25pm
Pittsburgh Steelers 27-17 Oakland Raiders
The Raiders are a bit of a conundrum to me, is Darren McFadden an elite runner or not? Can Carson Palmer take this team places? Can the defense stop anything? They have explosive weapons on offense and can pose a threat to anyone, but they are just too inconsistent on the defensive side of the ball to have faith in. The Steelers may not be the side of old, with a defense that teams can run on, but they carry more offensive threat in the passing game than ever, and with Oakland’s secondary looking a little threadbare, look for Big Ben to throw the ball all over the place.
Houston Texans 20-10 Denver Broncos
The team many are expecting to be the AFC’s representative at the Superbowl, the Texans, have made a solid start to this year, even if they were in games you would expect them to have won. Whereas Peyton Manning showed his ‘big-game colours’ in throwing THREE first quarter interceptions against the Falcons in Denver’s defeat on Monday. Controversy alert: I think the Broncos are hugely overrated. Their defense has a good pass rush, but not much else, and the offense is in the hands of a Peyton Manning minus the arm strength and the match practice, with injury prone running backs and second rate wide receivers. Needless to say, I think the Texans win this one more easily than you might think.
Monday 1:20am
New England Patriots 26-23 Baltimore Ravens
After the Pats’ loss to Arizona, everyone seems to have come out to bash the AFC heavyweights, but don’t forget, they had the chance to win the game, Gostkowski just fluffed the kick. They moved the ball fairly well without Aaron Hernandez on an excellent defense, and should still have had enough to win the game, so there’s no need for overreaction yet. The Ravens’ controversial loss to Philadelphia highlighted a few concerns I have over the Ravens, most importantly, there is a definite drop off on defense, teams can pass on this Baltimore team, even if the run stopping is as stout as usual. Secondly, Joe Flacco hasn’t shown me the consistency I would like to see in a championship challenging QB, one week he’s good, the next, not so much. Strangely enough, the x-factor in this game could well be the New England defense, they’re top 10 in every stat, and if they can stop the run while keeping the lid on Torrey Smith, like they did with Larry Fitzgerald last week, they could well bounce back. Bill Belichick doesn’t allow two poor performances in a row, and neither does Tom Brady.
Tuesday 1:30am
Green Bay Packers 27-16 Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks showed what a tough game they can give anyone at home when they stuffed the Dallas Cowboys 27-7 last Sunday. Their defense is a real top unit, while rookie QB Russell Wilson, if asked to manage the game, rather than chase it, can do a very good job. The Packers won’t come into this game complacently, and Aaron Rodgers will want to put up a better stat line than he did against the Bears, but he will need his targets to hold onto the ball better when he throws it to them. This will be a very tough examination of the Pack’s Superbowl credentials, but with the way Clay Matthews is playing right now, any offense will have trouble doing anything against that defense, and his disruptive influence could stop Wilson and Seattle from keeping up with Rodgers’ offensive play, even if Marshawn Lynch has a good day.
