Padres looking for a fresh start following key departures

Whichever way you look at it, the San Diego Padres had an awful 2011 season. Franchise player Adrian Gonzalez finally departed, making his way to Boston, and instantly the Pads were a team rebuilding. They hit an NL worst .237, along with an MLB worst 91 homers. Even given the fact that PETCO Park is considered one of the best pitching stadiums in the league, those are poor numbers.

Amazingly, despite their 71-91 record, they had the third best pitching staff in the league, with a team ERA of 3.42 that was only bettered by the Giants and Phillies. Every pitcher that started at least 20 games recorded an ERA the good side of 3.75, although Mat Latos and Heath Bell, arguably the two best pitchers on the roster last season have departed.

The Padres have a history of pulling above their weight when they have a weakened team, and with the NL West not exactly being the most impressive division, is there a chance that they could pull off an upset and head to the post-season?

IN : Yonder Alonso (INF – Cincinnati), John Baker (C – Miami), Andrew Cashner (RP – Chicago Cubs), Mark Kotsay (INF – Milwaukee), Micah Owings (RP – Arizona), Matt Palmer (RP – L.A. Angels), Carlos Quentin (OF – Chicago W.S.), Huston Street (RP – Colorado), Dale Thayer (RP – N.Y. Mets), Edinson Volquez (SP – Cincinnati)

OUT : Heath Bell (RP – Miami), Samuel Deduno (RP – Minnesota), Jeff Fulchino (RP – Washington), Alberto Gonzalez (INF – Texas), Aaron Harang (SP – L.A. Dodgers), Brad Hawpe (INF – Texas), Rob Johnson (C – N.Y. Mets), Mat Latos (SP – Cincinnati), Wade LeBlanc (RP – Miami), Pat Neshek (RP – Baltimore), Eric Patterson (OF – Detroit), Kyle Phillips (C – Toronto), Chad Qualls (RP – Philadelphia), Anthony Rizzo (INF – Chicago Cubs)

Catchers : Nick Hundley will be the number one, despite the arrival of John Baker from Miami. Despite missing 80 games last season, Hundley was tied second on the team with nine homers, although that is more a sign of the weak natured hitting of the Pads rather than a testament to Hundley’s power. Through a mixture of injury and working his way up the depth chart, the 28 year old has only made 305 appearances in four seasons in San Diego. Baker, the primary reserve, has had fewer than 100 at bats over the last two seasons, despite being the starter in 2009. Young Yasmani Grandal has yet to make his major league debut, but could do so this year.

Infielders : Jason Bartlett and Orlando Hudson both return and will form a great defensive middle infield, if a slightly fragile one. Bartlett hit .245, while Hudson was only marginally better, hitting .246. The duo, however, stole 42 bases last season, and with PETCO Park being such a pitchers heaven, speed is a must have commodity on the bases. The duo are also the second and third oldest members of a young roster, so will be counted on to provide leadership. Yonder Alonso arrives from Cincinnati and is the favourite for the first base job. A .299 AVG in 67 career games with the Reds shows that he deserves a shot at an everyday job. Chase Headley, meanwhile, seems to have lost some power, but gained accuracy at the plate. Last season was his worst full season in terms of hitting home runs, but his .289 AVG was significantly higher than his previous best. There are a slew of young back-ups, lead by Logan Forsythe and Everth Cabrera. The latter, however, appears to have regressed, seeing his appearances cut from 110 to 76 to 2 in the last three seasons. Forsythe batted just .215 in 62 games last year. Jedd Gyorko is only a non-roster invite, but is a top prospect in the organisation, hitting .333 with 25 homers and 114 RBIs between Class A and Class AA last year. A great Spring Training could see him rocket up the depth chart. Andy Parrino is next on the depth chart, followed by Jesus Guzman, Jeudy Valdez and James Darnell, all four of whom have limited big league experience.

Outfielders : A starting outfield of Carlos Quentin, who will do well to match the power numbers during his four stint with the White Sox, Will Venable and Cameron Maybin looks likely. Maybin is a terrific defensive centre fielder with enviable speed, as can be seen by his 40 stolen bases. An increase in his awareness at the plate and power numbers will be needed for him to take the next step, however. Venable, like Maybin, has an atrocious strikeout-to-walk ratio that needs to be improved heading into the 2012 season. Kyle Blanks can provide power, a rarity in San Diego, having hit 20 homers in 142 career games. The experienced duo of Mark Kotsay and Chris Denorfia are also options. Kotsay will be looking to add to his 1728 career appearances, while Denorfia bounced around the league as a reserve, but has made 210 appearances in two seasons as a Padre. Jeremy Hermida is a very intriguing non-roster invite that has every shot of making the team, having played 104 games for four teams in just two seasons.

Starting Pitchers : The starting rotation seems pretty set for the Padres, although there is a slightly different look to it following the departure of Mat Latos. Tim Stauffer, Cory Luebke, Dustin Moseley and Clayton Richard are the returning quartet, with all four having had sub 3.90 ERAs last year, which led to the Pads having one of the most underrated rotations in the game last year. The returning starters combined for a 3.55 ERA in 545 innings, while a 23-41 record is a clear sign of a massive lack of run support. If those figures can be repeated, coupled with an improved offence, then San Diego could have an outside chance of outlasting the Giants and Diamondbacks. Edinson Volquez is the sole newbie, and has had terrible injury problems over the last three seasons, making just 41 appearances, while far from replicating his 2008 form, when he went 17-6 with a 3.21 ERA. Jeff Suppan is a non-roster invite with starting experience, 411 starts to be precise, but the 37 year old didn’t pitch last year and has a 5.87 ERA in three Spring Training starts.

Relief Pitchers : As with the starting rotation, the bullpen put up impressive numbers, but the departures of Heath Bell and Chad Qualls are obviously major losses. Huston Street is the big new arrival and will take over as the closer, having saved 178 games in his seven year career. With the Padres being low scorers, he will get many a chance to improve that figure in the coming months. Andrew Cashner is another new arrival, and it appears that he will be relied on heavily too. The baby faced 25 year old had a 1.69 ERA in very limited time with the Cubs last year, but has massively impressed in the early days of Spring Training. Luke Gregorson, Ernesto Frieri and Josh Spence are all returning and will be crucial roles in the San Diego bullpen, having combined for a 2.73 ERA in nearly 150 innings. Anthony Bass, however, was even better. In 27 games (3 starts), the rookie had a 1.68 ERA. That figure will be harder to emulate now that the batters have grown accustomed to his arsenal. Joe Thatcher and Brad Brach are both returning and were very much in the minority of Padres pitchers last season, in that they had unimpressive numbers. Veteran Micah Owings is also expected to garner serious consideration, and could be used as a spot starter too. Jose de Paula, Nick Vincent and Juan Oramas provide depth, but are inexperienced.

PREDICTION : The main issue with the Padres is their lack of runs. Even given the fact that they call probably the most pitcher friendly ballpark their home, they were woeful last season. If they get that right, then they have a chance because they do have a good, if massively underrated pitching staff. With the arrival of Street, losing Bell will not be as big a factor as many would have thought, but it all comes down to their offence. In my opinion, it just isn’t good enough to warrant serious consideration in the play-off picture. Fourth place.