Possible BBL play-off scenarios explained

The BBL play-offs are right around the corner and with very few positions confirmed, I thought I’d get my calculator out and start working out every possible scenario so you guys and girls don’t have to.

Without further ado, I present to you part one of my breakdown of the play-off positions starting with…

The Top End:

Worcester are currently in second with no games remaining and 44 points.

Plymouth are currently in third with two games remaining and 42 points.

Leicester are currently in fourth with two games remaining and 40 points.

 

Worcester has the head-to-head over Plymouth (2-1)

Plymouth has the head-to-head over Leicester (2-1)

Leicester has the head-to-head over Worcester (2-1)

 

How Worcester can get second:

•  Embrace negativity – Hope Plymouth lose both of their games and that Leicester don’t win both of theirs.

How Plymouth can get second:

• Win both of their remaining games. If they do that, they won’t have to worry about what Leicester do.
• Win just one game and hope that the Riders don’t win both of theirs.

How Leicester can get second:

•  Win both of their remaining games and rely on Plymouth splitting their remaining two games…at best.

 

The Breakdown:

If Leicester loses both games and Plymouth loses both games, 2nd through 4th remain as they are.

If Leicester loses both games and Plymouth wins one game, Worcester finish second, Plymouth third and Leicester fourth.

If Leicester loses both games and Plymouth win both games, Plymouth finish second, Worcester third and Leicester fourth.

If Leicester wins one game and Plymouth loses both of their games, 2nd through 4th remain as they are.

If Leicester wins one game and Plymouth wins one game, 2nd through 4th remain as they are.

If Leicester wins one game and Plymouth wins both games, Plymouth move into second, Worcester slip to third and Leicester stay in fourth.

If Leicester wins both games and Plymouth loses both games, Leicester moves into second (thanks to the head-to-head record over Worcester) and Plymouth slip to fourth.

If Leicester wins both games and Plymouth wins one game, it goes down to a ‘points difference in the head-to-head games’ which would mean Worcester would finish fourth, Plymouth stay in third and Leicester jump to second.

If Leicester wins both games and Plymouth wins both games, Plymouth move into second, Leicester moves into third and Worcester drop to fourth.

 

If Plymouth loses both games, and Leicester loses both games, 2nd through 4th remain as they are.

If Plymouth loses both games and Leicester wins one game, 2nd through 4th remains as they are.

If Plymouth loses both games and Leicester wins both games, Leicester finishes second, Worcester finishes third and Plymouth fourth.

If Plymouth wins one game and Leicester loses both their games, Plymouth finishes in second, Worcester in third and Leicester stay put in fourth.

If Plymouth wins one game and Leicester wins one game, Plymouth finishes second, Worcester third, Leicester fourth.

If Plymouth wins one game and Leicester wins both of their games, Leicester finishes second, Plymouth third and Worcester fourth.

If Plymouth wins both of their games and Leicester loses both their games, Plymouth finish second, Worcester third and Leicester fourth.

If Plymouth wins both of their games and Leicester wins one game, Plymouth finishes second, Worcester finish third and Leicester fourth.

If Plymouth wins both of the games and Leicester wins both of their games, Plymouth finish second, Leicester third and Worcester fourth.

Still too complicated? Check out the pie charts below for further numerical clarification.

Chance (%) of finishing second in the league: (Blue indicates Worcester Wolves, Green is UCP Marjon Plymouth Raiders and red represents Jelson Homes DMU Leicester Riders)

Chance (%) of finishing third in the league:

Chance (%) of finishing fourth in the league:

Remaining fixtures:

18/04 – Riders vs Eagles

18/04 – Raiders at Lions

20/04 – Raiders at Sharks

21/04 – Riders vs Heat

 

And if you’re not suffering from information overload, check out the ‘Battle in the bottom three’…coming soon!

 

Updated: With the Riders 81-68 win over the Eagles and the Raiders 128-113 loss to the Lions, the chances of finishing second, third and fourth have changed for all three teams involved in the ‘Race for second place’.

Chance (%) that a team will finish second:

Worcester Wolves – 50%

Plymouth Raiders – 0%

Leicester Riders – 50%

 

Chance (%) that a team will finish third:

Worcester Wolves – 25%

Plymouth Raiders – 75%

Leicester Riders – 0%

 

Chance (%) that a team will finish fourth:

Worcester Wolves – 25%

Plymouth Raiders – 25%

Leicester Riders – 50%

(Percentages compiled using the highlighted permutations)