Super Bowl preview

So here we are, after six months of ups and downs, we finally have our final two, the New England Patriots and the New York Giants will go at it for the Lombardi Trophy in Indianapolis.

In a repeat of the 2007 showpiece, where the Giants brought to an end the perfect Patriot season, Tom Brady will be looking to avenge the painful defeat that Eli Manning’s last gasp touchdown pass inflicted on the 18-0 team.

But that was five years ago, and this weekend will see a very different game to the 17-14 encounter. So what are the main factors that will decide this game? Here’s the way I see it…

GIANTS’ PASS RUSH

Much has been said of the Giants’ pass rush, with Jason Pierre Paul, Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck’s mission being to stop Tom Brady having time in the pocket. This could be the difference in the game, because if Brady can avoid being sacked too many times, he will be able to pick on the Giants’ secondary. The Giants have also found success when blitzing linebacker Michael Boley, but this tactic is risky as it would leave the Pats’ explosive tight ends more space inside the numbers.

The Patriots’ offensive line has been banged up all year, yet has still done a very good job, only allowing Brady to be sacked once in the post season. But this will undoubtedly be their biggest task, and if they want to win the game, Matt Light, Sebastian Vollmer and rookie Nate Solder, who has been excellent and will be drafted in as an extra lineman on some downs, will have to play like a miniature brick wall. More than three sacks on Brady could spell doom for the Patriots.

QB’s

Ok, I’ll admit it, the way he has played so far this season; Eli Manning has proved that he is an ‘elite’ NFL QB. However, the problem with Eli has always been his consistency, you never really know which Eli Manning you are going to get. The Giants will back their triggerman to the hilt against the Pats’ cut and shunt secondary, but as bad as the New England defence has been yardage wise, they have been excellent when playing opportunistically, waiting for the bad throw and creating turnovers, so Manning will have to keep the ball safe.

What can you say about Tom Brady? He wins games single handed time after time, and has dragged his team to the AFC East title, the AFC Championship and now he has a shot at his 4th Super Bowl ring. He is virtually assured his place in the Hall of Fame, but if he can win on Sunday, he will have a legitimate claim of being the best QB ever to play the game, especially if he wins this year, with no real deep threat and no ‘big time’ wideout that plays outside the numbers. But he hasn’t been perfect this season by any means, Brady has thrown a few bad passes in the playoffs already this year, and he won’t be able to do that on Sunday and expect another ring at the end of it.

THE PATRIOTS’ DEFENSE

Ranked 31st in total defense, the Patriots have defied the ‘defence wins championships’ adage to reach the big one, but as the Packers and Saints learned, there has to come a point where you have to get stingy. The Pats have done that to an extent over the playoffs, and seem to have found a pair of linebackers in Rob Ninkovich and Brandon Spikes who fit their defensive strategy. While they aren’t great players, they are high effort and high motor players who are good against the run and have mobility against the pass.

The secondary has been awful in terms of giving up yards, but excellent in creating turnovers. The move of Devin McCourty to safety has been a master stroke, making teams think again about throwing the deep ball, with McCourty’s athleticism and size giving good help to corners Kyle Arrington and Sterling Moore.

The Giants however have pinpointed the use of Julian Edelman in nickel and dime packages as something they can take advantage of. Now Edelman is a talented player, but he is not a cornerback, if the Patriots match him up one on one with Manningham, Cruz or Nicks, he will get torched, no doubts about it. More likely he will get safety/linebacker help, making the rest of the field slightly easier to throw to, this is a matchup that the Giants will look to exploit as often as they can.

WEAPONS

Both sides have serious weapons at their disposal. The Giants have their fantastic young trio of receivers to throw to, while Brady has his two mercurial tight ends (assuming that Gronkowski is ready to go, which I think he will be) and his no.1 slot receiver. Each team plays in a totally different way to each other, Brady throws predominantly inside the numbers while Eli likes to throw the deep ball outside. Neither team will be able to stop the other completely; there is just not enough talent in the respective teams’ secondaries to do that, so it will be important that main weapons are taken away. The Patriots have to slow down either Nicks or Cruz, while the Giants have to play a defense that makes it very difficult for tight ends.

The Pats have to get pressure to Manning or Eli will throw all over them, and this is where Vince WIlfork will have to again play like a man possessed, the pressure up the middle will make Eli panic, no matter how many weapons he has to throw to. I fully expect Manning to throw for 250 yards and 2TD’s however, but whether that will be enough, I’m not sure.

The Giants may well choose to flood the middle of the field to try and stop Gronkowski and Hernandez thus taking more chances on the outside against Deion Branch and whoever else may play at WR for the Patriots. (Slater, Underwood… Ochocinco?) And if they do that, Brady will be more than happy to take some shots. In fact I fully expect him to throw deep early in the game to keep the Giants’ defense on their toes. Wouldn’t it just be typical for Ochocinco to do nothing in the regular season, and then catch two TD’s in his biggest game of the year in the Super Bowl. I can see it now… MVP: Chad Ochocinco. Ok sorry, that’s not going to happen, even if 85 hasn’t lost any speed or route running capability.

RUNNING GAME

New York’s running game has been poor this year, but with Brandon Jacobs pounding the ball up the middle and softening up the defense for Ahmad Bradshaw, there is the potential for big gains to be made on the outside. It has always been difficult to run the ball up the gut against New England, especially with the run gobbler Wilfork manning the defences.

The Patriots’ running game is hugely underrated simply because there are no big name running backs in New England’s backfield. Benjarvus Green Ellis is tough and durable with faultless ball security, while the use of Danny Woodhead and Stevan Ridley adds a nice change of pace option. The Pats have even used Aaron Hernandez as a running back at times, and have ripped off large gains when the tight end has been in the backfield, so the Giants will have to be on their toes to make sure the Pats don’t surprise them on the ground.

TURNOVERS

In any game of any season, if a team can win the turnover battle, they will have a good shot of winning the game, and just because this is a Super Bowl, things are no different. We saw in the NFC Championship game how important turnovers are, especially on special teams, and this is one area where I think that the Patriots have a clear advantage. They have been excellent all year on special teams without having a real explosive kick and punt returner. The G-men will have to keep the ball secure at all times, and try to win the field position battle to give themselves a good chance of winning the game.

In general play, my theory is that if the Pats’ defense can force a few punts in the first two quarters, while scoring on most drives, they will make it tough for Eli to play his natural game, and it will make the Giants’ QB force things, which is where ‘bad’ Eli could come to the party. The Patriots’ good turnover differential has been based on making opposition QB’s force things to try and catch up with what Tom Brady has put on the board, so a good defensive display in the first half is very important for New England.

PEYTON’S HOUSE

Both of these QB’s have ‘beef’ with Peyton Manning, Eli for obvious reasons, being his younger brother, and Brady because he has often been head to head with the Indianapolis QB, Manning is Brady’s biggest rival. To win a Super Bowl in the stadium where Peyton is the resident hero (until Andrew Luck shows up) would be huge for both men. A ring for the Giants would make Eli more successful than his older brother, while a Pats win would vindicate Brady’s claim to be the greatest QB ever to play the game, right in the front garden of his old foe Peyton Manning.

But it’s not just the QB’s who want to win it, don’t forget the rivalry that Bill Belichick has always found with Indianapolis, it would be so sweet for BB to coach his New England Patriots to a fourth Super Bowl victory in the house of his biggest rivals in the AFC.

In terms of predicting the game, I am torn. As you may or may not have noticed, my heart lies firmly in the camp of the New England Patriots, with their high powered offense and steadily improving defense. But the game will come down to how much time Tom Brady has in the pocket, and with the Giants’ ferocious pass rush, that they can generate from their front four alone, it will be very difficult for the hall of fame QB to pick apart the New York defense when they have five or more defensive backs on the field, and Brady has less than three seconds to throw.

When you look at the way the Giants have played in the past few years against the Patriots, Tom Coughlin seems to have found a formula that Bill Belichick is yet to figure out, but if the Patriots are to win this Sunday, they will have to find a way to turn the tables on their Big Blue kryptonite, by pressuring Eli Manning into mistakes and making none of their own.

If the Patriots cannot negate the pass rush of the Giants in some way, my head says that Pats fans will suffer the same heartache as they did in 2007, but this is why we love football, because you never know what is going to happen. So by 11:30 on Sunday night, sit back, crack open a beer, and enjoy a game that I’m sure will be a classic.

For the record, here’s a prediction:

New York Giants 27-24 New England Patriots