The economy of the NFL
The NFL works much in the same way everything else in this world works, because of money.
As with business when supply exceeds demand, the price of goods drop. This offseason has been interesting because of a number of well-reported stories; Peyton Manning, Tim Tebow and the Saints bounty scandal. Something almost lost amongst this has been Matt Forte and his lack of a long-term deal. The fact he hasn’t got a new contract isn’t the interesting story, it’s the fact that no running backs at all are getting good deals anymore.
Last offseason Chris Johnson decided his rookie contract wasn’t a fair representation of his production. He wanted to be paid as much as a top playmaker in the game. Something that, especially after a season rushing for over 2000 yards, you couldn’t argue with. He finally signed a deal for 53.5 million (30 million guaranteed) over four years.
The media, the Titans fans and almost every other supporter of the game blasted Johnson. His logic was simple; I run, I hurt myself and then no one will pay me or maybe ever pay me again, fair logic. Matt Forte, workhorse of the Bears, was also on the last year of his rookie deal, a lower deal than the one CJ2K was on. Forte may not have produced the raw numbers that Johnson produced, but he’s a three down back, capable of catching passes (in a Mike Martz system just what you want your RB to do) and was carrying Chicago. He was due a payday. Rather than kick up a fuss, he played the year out expecting to be rewarded the same way Johnson had been, as one of the top playmakers in the game. Rushing for 4.9 yards a carry he showed just that…and then tore his MCL forcing him to miss the last four games.
This is an issue that is plaguing the whole NFL, but I have chosen these two high profile players for a reason. CJ held out. He got his monster deal. He then did nothing. Just over a 1000 yards, four TDs, 4 YPC. Not what you’d expect from “a top producer”. If you look at the numbers it seemed like CJ was in decline. Forte on the other hand didn’t hold out, but hurt himself, something that is a risk to every running back, especially in the new age NFL. Passing is the future of the league, everything is skewed in the favor of the golden passers, the time when RBs were top dog is long over.
Peyton Hillis signed a one-year deal for a measly three million just one year after breaking a thousand yards rushing and being the Madden cover athlete. He’s a perfect example of a player that one injury-plagued season has cost a big contract. Tolbert got a deal worth 8.4 million over four years. That’s a measly 2 million a year. Want more proof of RB devaluation? Phil Dawson and David Akers will be earning 3.8 and 3 million respectively this year. Sixteen kickers are earning over 2.1 million in 2012. If you’re running the ball down the middle and a kicker is getting more than you, you’ve got a problem.
Being a running back is a hard job, possibly the hardest playing role in the NFL. You have to sacrifice your body and knowingly reduce your playing life with every rep. The NFL knows the value of these players; it’s up to the players to adjust. They are getting there, and shows of good faith like seen from Forte will undoubtedly reduce. They’re going to be looking for straight cash from now on. The age of the QB is doing them no favors. Who remembers Sean Alexander? MVP and Madden cover athlete one year…after a broken leg; nothing.
Follow Rhodri Williams on twitter @Voyezlesprit
