The Manning effect
My prediction; the Colts will not win more than five games this season.
Fresh off the news Manning is out “indefinitely” and with “no timetable of return”, but for a much more quantifiable minimum of 2-3 months, the Colts season is in jeopardy. Manning for sure is one of the greatest QBs of all time and a first ballot Hall of Famer, but football is a team game. You’d expect a drop off with Kerry Collins, but as much of a drop off as I’m predicting?
The Colts are meant to be one of the best organizations in football. They’re meant to be one of the best teams in the last decade. They’re meant to have one of the most explosive offenses in football. Last year was the first season the colts have not won twelve games or more since 2002. The last time they didn’t have double digit wins in a season was 2001, a decade ago. The more you look at that stat the more it boggles your mind. Since the 2003 season the Colts have won 108 games losing a measly 29 (including playoffs). Yet, Manning goes down and many people have already turned their mind to Andrew Luck and the possible number one pick in the coming draft.
There’s a big problem with trying to predict how the Colts will do without Manning…last time he didn’t start for them was 1998. Jim Harbaugh, the current 49ers coach, was the last QB to start a game for the Colts before Manning. Peyton has consecutively started in his last 227 games (the longest active NFL streak), which includes a NFL record 23 wins in a row. Still, even when Brady tore his ACL and MCL in the Patriots first game of the ’08 season (leaving them in a similar predicament) the doom and gloom went as far as 7-8 wins minimum. Most people didn’t even remove them as predicted division champions.
The AFC South crown might as well be given tomorrow to the Texans the way people are talking. If you want to see what a Colts team without Manning looks like, watch the Jets game in ’09 where Painter turned a five-point lead into fourteen-point loss in just over 20 minutes. It’s not pretty.
The thing is…all the talk is right. Despite all this ‘they’ve won x games’ and ‘they are a classy organization’…really the Colts as a football team starts and ends with Manning. They cannot run the ball and they utilize a quick passing system that only a QB with elite accuracy can operate. They do not, and have not, had a suitable backup to Manning since Jim Sorgy left for the Giants.
Despite all this offensive woe, the major reason the Colts won’t be winning many games this season is their defense. I don’t quote defensive stats because they’re misleading. The Pats once held the Titans to -8 passing yards and suddenly had the statistically best pass defense in the NFL. Just like in that case, all you had to do was watch the team to get a true reflection of just how bad the defense really was. The Colts defense is dire. Manning has (although never making a tackle) been the Colts D. If they let through thirty points, he would score thirty-one. With Manning, they could jump out to twenty-one point leads before the end of the first quarter forcing teams to air it out every play to keep up, allowing them to defend one dimensional passing teams.
With Freeney and Mathis they are perfectly set up to play the pass, to beat teams that need to score with quick strikes down field.
To do this they need Manning. Without Manning that D will let through points and will not have them matched by the O. Without Manning teams do not fear that the game is out of hand even if they’re down by fourteen. Without Manning they don’t have the ‘coach on the field’. Without Manning this team is doomed.
