The O.C.: Early Power Rankings – The East
Last week I took an incredibly early look at the Western Conference, and just how that conference stacks up. We’re still in July (just), but let’s face it, outside of Greg Ode, Brandon Jennings and Nikola Pekovic any calibre of impact free-agent is off the board. So outside of trades, we basically have everyone’s rosters set, so after last week’s Western Conference power rankings let’s take a look at the East.
1. Miami Heat (2012-13 finish: 1st)
Is anyone surprised? While there’s some uncertainty at the top of the Western Conference, there’s a minuscule separation between the defending two-time champs and the rest of the Eastern elite. With the exception of Mike Miller (amnestied), the Heat’s championship core will be returning in a bid for a 2013-14 three-peat.
The biggest obstacle for the Heat next season won’t be Miller’s departure, but Dwyane Wade’s health. If Wade’s battered knees can hold up for a full season the Heat will likely find themselves representing the East again in the NBA Finals for the fourth consecutive year.
Sure, returning with the same line-up doesn’t seem like enough (not big enough on the front line) but when returning brings back the King, what else needs to be done?
2. Brooklyn Nets (2012-13 finish: 4th)
Well this hurts, regular readers will know I’m a long, proud and unapologetically biased Celtics fan. I wanted to say ‘they won’t click’ etc. But I simply couldn’t.
With the addition of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Andrei Kirilenko and Jason Terry, this might be the deepest team in the league. There’s been lots of talk about how old people feel the Nets are, but let’s not forget their two best players – Deron Williams and Brook Lopez – are in their primes.
The Kirilenko addition was a near stroke of genius. He will be able to produce enough in the regular season to be able to keep Pierce and Garnett fresh for the playoffs. There’s a very real and genuine concern that the Nets show their age and fail to make any strides in 2013-14, but for me, they’ve cooled those concerns with a monster bench.
3. Chicago Bulls (2012-13 finish: 5th)
The Bulls promise to grow internally, young players Jimmy Butler and Marquis Teague look set to improve, and the Bulls did well to bring in Mike Dunleavy on a very friendly deal (two-year-$6million). Luol Deng, Joakim Noah and Kirk Hinrich should be healthier, but let’s face it, in all serious it all hinges on that one guy Derrick Rose.
Steven Edwards told me on FirstTakeUK that Bulls fans had “grown frustrated and lost respect” for Rose during his injury rehab. But if Rose returns to perennial MVP-candidate form, or something close to it, the Bulls figure to challenge the head for the top seed and separate themselves from the rest of the East. But that’s far too big an ‘if’ for someone so reliant on burst and athleticism.
4. Indiana Pacers (2012-13 finish: 3rd)
Why not higher on the list? While the Bulls added Rose and the Nets completely revamped their roster, the Pacers stood still and will look little to no different than their 2012-13 squad. Danny Grainger’s return could help, but he has been in decline for a few seasons now and that was before a balky left knee gave him a lost season in 2012-13.
There are legitimate questions whether Roy Hibbert and Paul George can maintain their breakthrough performances in the play-offs, but the duo is young enough to produce an encore. They’ll need it to continue the franchise’s upward trend.
5. New York Knicks (2012-13 finish: 2nd)
The Nets stole the headlines in the Big Apple for good reasons. It’s hard to figure out how the Knicks will improve on their 2012-13 campaign that gave them a No.2 seed and an exit in the East semis. J.R. Smith had major knee surgery that will table him for 3-4 months, Andrea Bargnani won’t help their poor defense and newcomer Metta World Peace is a 33-year-old coming off knee surgery.
If the Knicks consider Amar’e Stoudemire a $22m sunk cost and commit to playing Carmelo at the 4 full time, they could make some more noise in the East. But this looks like a big step back for the Knicks and the end of Melo in New York.
6. Atlanta Hawks (2012-13 finish: 6th)
The general consensus appears to have been that the Hawks have simply moved sideways, but there’s a good chance that the post- Josh Smith era will pick up where it left off. Paul Millsap remains one of the most under appreciated players in the league (seriously, how did he sign for just $19m?) and the rest of the core remains intact, including star bench player Lou Williams.
The additions of summer league stand-outs Dennis Schroeder and Elton Brand should bolster their bid to crash the top-four party, but they’ll be happy with the sixth seed without Smith.
7. Cleveland Cavaliers (2012-13 finish: 13th)
If only they could trade for the Phoenix Suns training staff. With the talent on the roster, the Cavaliers could vault as high as the No. 5 seed in the East, but talent could also be in street clothes for much of the season. No team in the entire league possesses more ‘if healthy’ qualifiers than the Cavaliers, with Kyrie Irving, Anderson Varejao and Andrew Bynum all battling leg injuries.
To counteract the injury risk, the Cavs could use with huge developmental strides from Dion Waiters, Tristan Thompson and No.1 Overall pick Anthony Bennett. A Heat-Cavs first round play-off matchup is a real possibility, though I can’t think of anything we’d be able to talk about.
8. Washington Wizards (2012-13 finish: 12th)
Whether the Wizards extend John Wall to the max ranks as on of the biggest remaining offseason questions – they’re currently in discussions for a five-year $80m deal – but that shouldn’t have much of an effect on the teams positive outlook for 2013-14. The Wizards were quietly a top-1o defense for the second half of last year and they drafted Otto Porter Jr. Who figure to step in right away at the small forward position.
With Bradley Beal returning from injury, the Wizards could have one of the biggest jumps in the Eastern Conference next year.
9. Milwaukee Bucks (2012-13 finish 8th)
The Bucks could be decent this year, underline could. With all the point guard openings seemingly being filled, Brandon Jennings figures to re-up with the Bucks on a qualifying offer and help try to lead the Bucks back to the playoffs.
O.J Mayo is a near statistical twin to J.J. Redick, who never appeared to find his footing in Milwaukee. With one of the best young frontcourts in Larry Sanders and John Henson the Bucks will be vying for the play-offs once again in 2013-14.
10. Detroit Pistons (2012-13 finish: 11th)
It seems as though the Pistons are vying for the title of the team with a great deal of talent that doesn’t know how to play together. I’d be more excited about the Pistons had they addressed their spacing issues brought about by Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond, but then they exacerbated the problem by signing notorious long-2 maverick Josh Smith.
No doubt, Smith will improve their score prevention on the defensive end, but I’m still not sure how this team can put up enough points to be a play-off team. Can Kentavious Caldwell-Pope rescue the dreadful backcourt?
11. Toronto Raptors (2012-13 finish: 10th)
After winning summer league MVP in Vegas, Jonas Valanciunas appears to be right on track to becoming one of the league’s most promising young centers. The Raptors’ season could hinge on his continued development. If he falters, they could shift into tank mode and look to deal Rudy Gay. If Valanciunas continues to blossom, a push for the play-offs could be in order.
12. Orlando Magic (2012-13 finish: 15th)
The Magic seemed primed for a veteran fire-sale with six players including; Arron Affalo and Al Harrington on sizeable contracts that could be attractive to play-off teams looking to clear future cap space and/or bolster their rotation.
Such a move would make sense if Orlando wants to keep their names in the ‘Riggin for Wiggins’ hat for 2014. A core of Victor Oladipo, Tobias Harris and Nikola Vucevic is promising but not good enough to keep themselves out of the East basement.
13. Boston Celtics (2012-13 finish: 7th)
Well if previous posts hurt, this hurts the most. As is, my Celtics figure to be in the running for not just the league’s worst defense, but I struggle to see how we score enough to fight into the play-off picture.
Remember, this was the 20th ranked team in offensive efficiency last season, and that was with Pierce, Garnett, a healthy Rondo and JT. Who’s this year’s number one scoring option? Jeff Green? Yikes.
14. Charlotte Bobcats (2012-13 finish: 14th)
The Bobcats desperately needed scoring in their point-starved frontcourt last season, and they made their two big off season moves with that in mind. Cody Zeller might have appeared to be a reach at No.4 and Al Jefferson may have been overpaid at $41m, but both will help with their anaemic offense.
But that defense has the potential to be historically bad next season and could well be enough to ‘win’ the Wiggins sweepstakes.
15. Philadelphia 76ers (2012-13 finish: 9th)
By dealing Jrue Holiday for an injured Nerlens Noel and a top-five protected pick in 2014, rookie GM Sam Hinkie put the ball in Evan Turner’s hands, which is the equivalent of waving a white flag on the 2013-14 season.
The 76ers figure to be horrifically awful on both ends of the floor, but that’s the idea. For a team previously stuck in the cycle of mediocrity, being very bad ahead of the 2014 Draft class might be the very best thing that ever happened to the 76ers franchise.
* * * * *
Feel free to agree or disagree with anything and everything I’ve spouted out here, comment below or hit me up on Twitter and look out for future O.C articles.
