The O.C.: Early Power Rankings – The West
It’s still very early in the year, we haven’t even left July, but everyone who follows any sport loves a bit of reckless speculation. I’ll try not to be to reckless, the fact of the matter is, that bar-trades we basically know what all the times in the NBA are going to look like when they suit up for training camps. So over the course of the next few weeks I’m going to indulge in some much desired ‘power rankings’ and we’ll begin with the Western Conference.
There’s going to be three races in each conference this season, and each of them will be highly competitive. This first is the upper echelon those handful of teams have loaded up to try to unseat the Miami Heat as champions. Then there’s a battle for the last two or three playoff spots, which will more than likely be more crowded than usual. And, yes, there are a couple of teams in each conference fighting primarily to improve their chances in next year’s lottery.
1. Oklahoma City Thunder (2012-13 finish: 1st)
There are some questions to be answered in OKC, specifically how do the Thunder replace Kevin Martin’s scoring punch off the bench. Is Jeremy Lamb ready to step up after winning the MVP in the Orlando Pro Summer League? Can Reggie Jackson pitch in after starting in place of Russell Westbrook in last year’s playoffs?
The four word answer to this is. Who Cares? Kevin Durant.
Durant is the second best player in the league, and assuming coach Scott Brooks can figure the other questions out in some way the Thunder will return to easily run away with the west.
2. San Antonio Spurs (2012-13 finish: 2nd)
The Spurs’ offseason has been relatively quiet (what else do we expect). They re-signed Manu Ginobili and Tiago Splitter and used their mid-level exception to sign Marco Belinelli as a replacement for Gary Neal.
The age of Ginobili (35) and superstar Tim Duncan (37) is certainly a concern. Nevertheless, doubt the Spurs at your peril. The Spurs have proved as much with year after year of consistent success.
3. Houston Rockets (2012-13 finish: 8th)
Having added Dwight Howard – unquestionably the best center around in this dire generation of big men – without surrendering any key pieces, the Rockets are clearly the biggest movers in the West. Howard and James Harden give Houston a core that can compete with anyone.
There are still some issue around the edges, particularly at power forward. Coach Kevin McHale will have to determine whether Omer Asik can play with Howard, or if youngsters Terrence Jones or the wonderfully named Donatas Motiejunas are ready to step up. If they prove capable, the Rockets could move even higher.
4. Los Angeles Clippers (2012-13 finish: 4th)
By upgrading their wing rotation – trading Bledsoe and Butler for Redick and Dudley – the Clippers have substantially improved their starting line-up. The Doc for Del Negro move could prove to be crucial come playoff time.
Yet the Clippers may not have moved up at all in the West because the other contenders also have loaded up L.A. can enhance its spot by adding another option up front off the bench to go with both Ryan Hollins and Byron Mullens.
5. Memphis Grizzlies (2012-13 finish: 5th)
The biggest change in Memphis is on the side-line. Dave Joerger was promoted to replace Lionel Hollins in a surprise move. The Grizzlies balanced their front court better by swapping Darrell Arthur for Kosta Koufos, but otherwise bring back last season’s rotation with the same strengths (post play) and weaknesses (shooting).Hopefully the signing of Mike Miller confirmed yesterday should help improve Memphis space the floor and help their shooting.
6. Golden State Warriors (2012-13 finish: 6th)
It was extremely difficult for me to put the Warriors here, as I love what they do, who doesn’t, and am particularly fond of the stud that is Stephen Curry. But where you stand on the Warriors objectively depends in large part on how much you believe their playoff run will translate. If Andrew Bogut can stay healthy and the young players maintain their improvement, the Warriors could make it six contenders in the West.
If Bogut misses extended periods and Harrison Barnes plays more like he did during the regular season, then adding Andre Iguodala may not be enough improvement.
7. Denver Nuggets (2012-13 finish: 3rd)
While the rest of the West’s elite have loaded up, Denver has suffered several key defections. Both General Manager, Masai Ujiri and Coach George Karl are no more, and the Nuggets also have to try to replace Iguodala by committee. While adding Randy Foye and Nate Robinson beefs up their perimeter shooting, the defense has taken several and severe hits.
8. Minnesota Timberwolves (2012-13 finish: 12th)
The biggest improvement the Timberwolves can make will be better health. After losing more games to injury than any team, Minnesota should be at full strength. Coach Rick Adelman also has more shooting at his disposal with the addition of Kevin Martin, though the defense could be weakened.
Assuming the T-Wolves lock up center Nikola Pekovic, a restricted free-agent, they’ll be at the top of the race to go from lottery to the playoffs.
9. Portland Trail Blazers (2012-13 finish: 11th)
The Blazers are right on Minnesota’s coat tails after a solid offseason that saw GM Neil Olshey rebuild their bench on the cheap. Only second-year center Meyers Leonard figures to remain in the rotation that was historically bad, while Robin Lopez slides into the starting five.
If rookie C.J. McCollum contributes immediately and Thomas Robinson plays like he did in the Las Vegas Summer League – where he was a terror on the glass – Portland will return to the playoffs.
10. New Orleans Pelicans (2012-13 finish: 14th)
The Pelicans have improved as much as anyone in the West by adding Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans to their backcourt. That still may not be enough for a playoff run in the Crescent City, given New Orleans finished a huge 18 games behind the eighth seed last season.
Better health for No.1 pick Anthony Davis and Eric Gordon also could help close the gap, and if Davis is able to make a leap (and defend opposing centers) in his sophomore season, the Pelicans can easily be in the mix for the eight seed.
11. Dallas Mavericks (2012-13 finish: 10th)
After two years of patience, Mavericks owner Mark Cuban opened his sizeable wallet once again, paying Jose Calderon, Monta Ellis and Samuel Dalembert a combined $64.5million. But it’s still not clear that those investments have made Dallas a better team.
A Calderon-Ellis backcourt presents major defensive issues, and the Mavs continue to rely heavily on the aging Dirk Nowitzki (35). Dallas was a playoff calibre team after Nowitzki got healthy last season, but can’t afford an injury to its star.
12. Los Angeles Lakers (2012-13 finish: 7th)
Ahhh as a Celtics fan this is fun.
Consider this group the ‘Interim’ Lakers, because only three players – Nick Young (player option), Steve Nash and Robert Sacre are signed through 2014-15. Kobe Bryant is also part of the Lakers’ future; the rest of this group is attempting to make a playoff run before hitting free agency next summer.
With Pau Gasol playing more at center now that Dwight Howard is in Houston, the fit should be better with D’Antoni’s system. Still, the Lakers’ chance of any sort of a season hinge on Bryant returning on or ahead of schedule and showing few ill effects from his ruptured Achilles, defying all logical and ugly history of Achilles injuries.
13. Utah Jazz (2012-13 finish: 9th)
By letting Randy Foye, Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap and Mo Williams walk in free agency, Utah effectively swapped its bench for its starters. That group, including talented youngsters Alec Burks, Derrick Favors, Gordon Hayward and Enes Kanter, might have contended for a playoff spot with support from a new veteran second unit.
Instead, the Jazz swallowed dead salary from the Warriors to secure two future first round picks, making it clear that this is a rebuilding season.
14. Sacramento Kings (2012-13 finish: 14th)
The Kings aren’t settling for another trip to the lottery. They were active in free agency. Greivis Vasquez gives the Kings a setup point guard for the first time since Mike Bibby, and rookie Ben McLemore supplies needed shooting. But the Kings haven’t improved enough to consider the playoffs a realistic possibility just yet.
15. Phoenix Suns (2012-13 finish: 15th)
After years of resisting, the Suns finally committed to a rebuild during last season. Dealing for Eric Bledsoe and drafting Alex Len improves the team’s talent pool and outlook for the future.
For now, thought, Len is coming back from surgery on both ankles, and Bledsoe will play with Goran Dragic in the backcourt. Phoenix is the odds-on favourite to finish last in the Western Conference and add another talented prospect to the core in next year’s draft.
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Feel free to agree or disagree with anything and everything I’ve articulated here (Lakers fans I await) comment below or hit me up on twitter, look out for my Eastern Conference Power Rankings next week.
