Top five fantasy draft day mistakes
If you aren’t playing fantasy football yet what have you been doing with your life?
Okay, the word “fantasy” makes it sound dorky, and yes sometimes it involves some maths… but don’t knock it until you have tried it. A few games into a fantasy season and I guarantee you’ll be hooked. Like with everything competitive though when you’re winning you have much more fun. Sadly fantasy football isn’t really pick-up and play, you learn on the go. New players frequently make these five mistakes (and even some veterans) while drafting, crippling their team for the rest of the year. Give these tips a read and remember them for fantasy glory in your next league!
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Picking a DST in anything other than the last round.
It’s not the end of the world if you have done or do this…but it’s the most frequent (and annoying) mistake someone makes. Sit there all you want and tell me that the “Jets D will get so many sacks” or “the Ravens will allow so few points” it really doesn’t matter. Most seasons I end up abandoning my drafted D and playing match ups. You can’t go too wrong using any D with a match up like the Jaguars or Browns. The more stubborn of you may still be saying “what about the 49ers, they were so dominant last year, shouldn’t I pick them high??”, No. The difference in points between the best D/ST last year and tenth best was 40 points. That’s 2.7 points a game you’ll be getting by nabbing what you “think” will be the best unit. Just because the 49ers were “great” last year means nothing.
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Picking a K in anything other than the last round.
Same goes for kickers. Unless you know for sure that your kicker will have a NFL record setting season (David Akers, 182 points) really don’t bother until the last round. There’s 42 points of difference between the 2nd best kicker and the 21st best. Difference in the Top 10 (without Akers) is a total of 15 points, that’s one per game. I’m not saying don’t pick a K or D/ST if you have a hunch they’ll be beasts…I’m just saying don’t do it until the 3rd last pick or later. Your back up players are way more important.
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Reaching on sleepers or hunches.
Sometimes it’s just not meant to be. You might be looking at Mark Sanchez in 2012 and thinking “he’s due for an Eli Manning-esc breakout year!” but this does not warrant you drafting him with your first overall pick. Take a look at where you think they’ll go and draft him a round or two higher than that (at a stretch). Sometimes you look at the pick distribution and realize that in 20 more picks your golden player won’t be there, sometimes it’s best to leave it. Last year, in a draft I was doing, one of the guys with his 11th pick picked Colt McCoy. Why? All the running backs (+ Calvin Johnson) he had wanted were gone and he was going to pick Colt anyway later on. He assured us that McCoy was going to break out and score so many points. He Didn’t. I’m not damning my friend for being wrong on his hunch; I’m damning him because he passed on obviously better QBs, RBs and WRs for his hunch. Know when it’s appropriate to pick guys. You need a team of solid fantasy players, can’t all be sleepers.
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Treating the QB as the most important position.
The regular NFL may have moved on from RBs but, as far as fantasy goes, they are your gods. Many people panic and see that Brady, Brees and Rodgers have gone and rush to grab a QB. If you see this happen in your draft, laugh. QBs might be the top contributors in fantasy as far as pure points go but you only have to start one, past those three and the Vick/Newton types, all the numbers start to even out. Players like Romo, Rivers and Ryan, the QBs that in the NFL aren’t quite elite yet, are elite in a fantasy team. Even someone like Sanchez, as unpopular as he is, was the 10th top fantasy QB, he finished with 30 points less than Brady in 2011 despite going 3-4 rounds lower. Pair him with two elite RBs and a WR? Fantasy glory. Rather than blow your board on on QB early, stick to bolstering your RBs and WRs. Getting a great productive WR or a starting RB is ten times better than good production from a QB. If a big name is there at the end of the first or start of the second then pull the trigger. If not? No harming in waiting until the 3rd, 4th or even 5th round.
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Health.
Before your draft starts you should have done at least some research. Who starts where, who might be traded and who’s not fitting in. Don’t overlook injuries. The amount of people who gloat about getting a steal of a player in the 6th, only to be told that that player tore his ACL, is suspended or tweaked a hamstring in a preseason game is way, way to high. It’s a stupid one, and I’m sure many of you will be thinking “this’ll never happen to me” but be careful, it happens more than you think.
Note: All stats were gathered using ESPNs fantasy format.
Follow Rhodri on twitter @Voyezlesprit