UK American Sports Fantasy: 2013 Football Sleepers
This is an early season sleepers column for those of you keen people who are drafting already like many of my leagues have been. In this column I will outline three quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends who I feel will perform better than where they are being drafted, and at some point in the season will be considered startable in most leagues.
AT QB
Ryan Tannehill (Miami Dolphins)
The Dolphins have invested in talent around Tannehill at WR and TE and he has a quality running back in Miller who should be able to deal with the workload and be explosive out of the backfield. All of this means there is the potential for a breakout year here but a lot depends on him forming a deep ball connection with Wallace and then Wallace actually catching the ball. Bringing in Keller at TE could provide him a reliable safety blanket and with Hartline as his no.2 WR and Bess in the slot there is a lot to be excited about. Top 12 is something that seems to be a real opportunity for him this year with the potential for top 10 in years to come. I feel he is a must for dynasty if you miss out on Luck, RG3 and Wilson and in shallow redraft leagues if I waited on QB I would take him as my backup if I had got someone like Romo as my number one QB.
Carson Palmer (Arizona Cardinals)
Carson struggled with Oakland last year but the move to Arizona could offer him a real chance. The OL in Arizona was a huge problem last year but if they can provide some solid protection then Carson has the chance to find one of the best receivers in the league who will be desperate to repay some of that faith the Cardinals showed in him by giving him big money. There are other good receiving pieces around him as well with Housler at TE but Bruce Arians offences do not tend to be heavily reliant on the TE so we will have to see how that relationship develops. There are some good pieces at WR other than Fitz and Mendenhall in the backfield should be able to provide a threat up the middle to give Palmer more time on his throws. I’d feel confident waiting on QB’s in a deeper league and having Palmer as my number 1 with a solid backup a couple of rounds later.
Nick Foles (Philadelphia Eagles)
For many reasons (e.g. injury and completion percentage) Vick’s days as the Eagles QB are numbered. If he was to lose the jobs the natural step in right now is Foles and in this potentially explosive offence he could put up stunning numbers. This is a QB you may want to pick up really late in deep (16-20 team) leagues and in shallow leagues you should keep an eye on the situation in preseason and at the start of the season especially if Vick starts taking some hits.
At RB
Robert Turbin (Seattle Seahawks)
Yes Lynch was superb last year but he also took plenty of hits and he is not the most sensible player off the field either. That combination is ideal for Turbin who I expect to secure the number 2 RB position in preseason and he would be ready to step in if Lynch is injured or suspended. The Seahawks offence will remain a ball control offence even with a QB as good as Wilson under centre and this means lots of runs and short passes to the RB so if Turbin can get the playing time the production will be there. Similar to Vick I feel Lynch may be a walking time bomb so I expect to see decent production for Turbin. Draft him late in 10-12 team leagues but in deeper leagues he may well be worth a flyer if you miss out on RB’s early.
Pierre Thomas (New Orleans Saints)
Thomas is Mr. Consistent in this Saints offence. He can do the job of Ingram and carry the ball up the middle consistently and he can also catch passes out of the backfield. An injury or a loss of confidence in Sproles or Ingram could leave the way open for Thomas to step in and get an increased number of carries. I always feel he worth taking late in leagues and sitting on the bench because he always seems to have weeks where he puts up big numbers and they are usually fairly predictable because they come with increased carries due to injury. As a RB 4/5 he really is a can’t miss because he has the potential to be a 2/3 if things fall his way.
Ben Tate (Houston Texans)
Tate is really only a sleeper this year because he was virtually anonymous last year due to a injuries and as fantasy players tend to have short term memories they may not be thinking about how good Tate was two years ago as a part time player. Foster carried the ball a lot last year and took a lot of hits and that will have taken its toll. I would not be surprised if Foster missed weeks this year and Tate is good enough that he will be able to step and in and could be a top 8-10 RB in those weeks with that offence. In addition, Schaub is not a bonafide game winner and therefore the Texans run the ball a lot so even as a number 2 in this offence he could be as good as many number 1s in other offences. In dynasty leagues I feel he is a great pick up because there are not a large number of miles on him due to his back up status for most of his career and a production reduction from Foster could see him getting even more time over the coming years. He will go before Turbin and Thomas in redraft leagues so you will have to step up a bit earlier but I really feel he will be worth the risk.
At WR
Rueben Randle (New York Giants)
Randle looked like one of the steals of the draft for the Giants last year with them managing to get him at the end of the second round and now in only his second year in the league he has a real chance to make his mark in the offence. The Giants have invested money in Cruz this offseason but Nicks is nearing the end of his contract and he was also a bit of an injury problem last year so if those problems start to come to the fore again the Giants may decide to give Randle the chance to settle in. Even if Nicks is healthy Randle still has a good chance of making an impact because he is likely to be the WR3 and with Cruz and Nicks seeing most of the coverage he could put up a solid year. Worth a pick up in mid to late rounds in redraft leagues and well worth the investment in dynasty. Huge potential here for the future especially but with the opportunity he could be up monster numbers this year also.
Darius Heyward-Bey (Indianapolis Colts)
This receiving group is relatively young except for Wayne meaning that an injury to Wayne could leave Heyward-Bey as the experienced man in the group and he could really benefit from that. He showed flashes in Oakland if he can get the WR2 or 3 spot in the offence then with Wayne demanding most of the defences attention he could really benefit and his speed will allow him to get deep for big plays. In addition, the Colts are likely to be behind a lot because there defence isn’t great so it is likely once again Luck will be throwing a lot late in games and he cannot always throw to Wayne so expect to see DHB step up and be the big target. I’d give him a late flyer in redraft leagues because there is the potential for huge numbers if he can nail down a starting position. Keep an eye on the talk out of the training camp to see if he is nailing one of those positions down and if he is then do not be afraid to pull the trigger in drafts or if he is available on the waiver wire
Desean Jackson (Philadelphia Eagles)
Many fantasy owners will want nothing to do with Jackson after last year but with a new coach and a new offence that relies a lot on speed he may be the ideal man. Could potentially line up in a variety of places and has the speed to get deep and cause defences absolute mayhem. He is being drafted as a WR3/4 in many leagues but I’d be willing to step up and take him as a WR2 because there is huge potential there for a big year in this offence.
At TE
Jake Ballard (New England Patriots)
With the Hernandez mess and the Gronk injury situation as clear as the thames water someone has to benefit and I feel Ballard is the man. He came to the Patriots in somewhat controversial circumstances last year (I won’t cover it here but google it and I am sure you will find the story) and spent the year on the IR. He was a fine TE in 2011 for the Giants before the injury and has the potential to be again especially in an offence as TE friendly as this one. Even if Gronk is healthy someone has to take Hernandez’s place as the WR/TE hybrid and this is your man in my opinion. I’d pick him up as a TE2 in the late rounds because he has the potential to be top 10. If you pick up a top TE earlier in the draft he is still worth a late pick for his trade value alone. I wouldn’t want him as my TE1 in deep leagues because the situation is still a little murky.
Travis Kelce (Kansas City Chiefs)
The young rookie is a real receiving threat for the Chiefs and with Moeaki being a bigger injury risk and a lesser receiver I can see Kelce getting a big part in the offence this year. If KC use Smith as more of a game manager the way SF did then Kelce could be one of his more dependable dump off passes. Well worth a late flyer in redraft leagues and in dynasty leagues he is well worth an investment in middle rounds for what you may have over the next couple of years.
Jordan Cameron (Cleveland Browns)
He had the opportunity last year and failed to make the most of it but this year I feel he may be able to live up to his potential. Weeden will be looking to show he is better than he was last year and he will need the help of his TE especially with Gordon being out for the start of the year. Another man worth a late flyer even if its just for potential trade bait. There will be plenty of other TE’s available on the wire so he maybe worth the pick up just to ensure you have him incase he gets off to hot start.
That is it for my early season sleeper column. If you have any thoughts or questions about any other players not mentioned here you can comment below or click on the twitter symbol next to my author name – Keep an eye out for my Fantasy Football positional rankings which will be filed in the next few weeks.