UK American Sports Fantasy: Football Draft Strategy
Fantasy NFL is growing around the UK with thousands taking up it each year but initially it can be hard to get your head around even for avid fans of the game. So those out there who are new to the game or have struggled in the past to make the playoffs and unsure why, this is for you. Of course this isn’t gospel and I’m not guaranteeing a league win, or even make the playoffs, because a lot of this is down to luck with injuries etc. but these tips may give you the best shot possible to be able to compete in your league on draft day and not play catch up all season.
Based on leagues of size 8-12 teams – optimal being ten.
1) Take two running backs in the first three rounds
Yes it’s a passing league but you still need to get your starting running backs early, others in your league will, leaving you with the dregs. Stud running backs are so rare in fantasy football that very often the first five picks of your draft will see them taken off the board and most likely eight or nine of the first ten picks will be running backs. In a standard ten team league (1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1RB/WR/TE, K, DEF) there are going to be at least 20 RB’s started each week if not 25 and when you consider there are probably only 15 top end running backs who you can expect consistent production from each week you really want to get two early.
I could now really break down the stats of the previous years to demonstrate my point to you instead I will try and keep it simple. In 2012, of the top 20 RB’s drafted, eight finished in the top ten, 12 were in the top 20 and 14 were in the top 25. In 2011, seven of the top 20 were in the top ten at the end of the year and 15 were in the top 20. All of the other top 20 drafted RB’s many of them were affected by injury-hit seasons.
The point is that the first three rounds are about reducing risk. You’re unlikely to win your fantasy league because of those three alone, but two or three bad picks could lose you the league halfway through the season.
2) Grab an elite WR (or Jimmy Graham) in the first three rounds
The reason why point one wasn’t get two running backs in the first two rounds is because to get one of the top four or five WR’s or Graham you will likely have to take them during the second round. Having an elite receiver can really anchor your team with your two starting running backs, allowing you to be braver with your choices for your next couple of receivers. Players like Bryant, Green, Marshall and Johnson who may get 10+ targets every week and may catch most of them for 70+ yards a week (and possibly a TD), give you a solid start in which to build the rest of your team around. Graham is a tight end and not a receiver but he is the number one target in an offence run by Drew Brees with very little competition. Once the top 15-20 running backs go there will be a run on WR so having one on the board early stops you having to reach for someone who is maybe not worth a fourth or fifth round pick.
Having two top 20 running backs and a top five receiver (or Graham) after three rounds puts you in the perfect position to take the best available player in rounds four through ten to set your roster up to be the best it can be.
3) Go for mid-round QB’s
Yes Aaron Rogers or Drew Brees look good as your QB but realistically the cost of getting them is too much for the advantage of them over the tenth best QB that would come off the board. A top four QB will normally be selected in the first three rounds (Rogers, Brees and Peyton in 1/2, Newton in 3) and you’re better off setting your roster with two running backs and a good quality pass catcher before picking up a top ten QB in rounds five-eight (usually the top 10 QB’s go in the first nine rounds).
The difference per week between the number one overall QB last year and the tenth was 4.12 points (nearly two points less than the difference between the first and tenth running back taken).
Of course, if one of those top four is still there in the fourth round don’t be afraid to pull the trigger if you already have your 2RB and WR off the board because there’s a lot of depth at WR and TE later in the draft. However, if those top five are gone, look at another RB or WR in the fourth and hold on a round or two to pick up a QB. The only other QB I would debate picking up in the fourth is Ryan – he seems to be available there a lot of the time and I’ve him ranked higher than Newton this year.
The big advantage of this tactic is that you can watch to see if a QB you are high on drops (e.g. Brady or Stafford who I have seen available as late as the sixth and seventh rounds) and jump on them without having sacrificed another part of your team.
4) Take a tight end based on value
Missed out on Graham in the second round? There’s no rush to grab a tight end in a standard league. The number two overall tight end I wouldn’t even draft until the fifth round in this sized league. If either Witten or Gronk are available in the 5th – grab them, but beyond that there’s no need to over draft a tight end because some players ranked 8-15 have top 5 TE end of year potential. If you’re drafting later in the year and Gronk is showing that he may miss at most two games then he may be worthy of taking in the fourth but with his injury history perhaps don’t hinge your team around him.
There’s real value in depth at the tight end position so you are just as well waiting and taking a couple TE’s later on that have high upside than you are reaching for a higher ranked tight end if there’s been a run on them.
5) Defence and Kicker last two rounds
This is a rule that not just rookies to the game but relative novices still do not grasp. Maybe it’s because some want to grab a ‘can’t-miss’ defence or get an itch having empty roster spots but in my view it is madness.
Kickers are the same story it is such a crap shoot with kickers and defences that you are better off grabbing them in the last two rounds and then playing the match ups.
Another tactic that you can use is to not draft a kicker or defence in an 8 to 12 team league and instead draft some high upside position players that may blossom in pre-season giving yourself as much time as possible to make a final decision on which high upside player you want to keep. You can then drop players the day of your games so that you can pick up a defence or kicker with a good match up for that week and then play it week by week from there.
6) Watch out for bye weeks
It is inevitable that you will end up with people on your team who have the same bye week during the season and their are two main tactics for dealing with bye weeks.
Firstly, try to avoid drafting a group of players who all have the same bye week as you only have a limited number of bench spots and it could be hard to pick up enough players who are not on bye that week. I try not to have more than two WR on the same bye week and no more than three players on my team with the same bye week. However if Larry Fitzgerald sits there in the sixth round and his bye week is the same as another three players on your team, I’d still draft him because you cannot miss out on that much value for a whole season for one week’s convenience. Also, keep your eye on bye weeks in later rounds – especially when choosing back up QB’s. Try a backup QB with a different bye week to your starter if possible and try not to load your bench with players with the same bye as most of your starters.
Secondly, although the competitor in me will not allow for it, purposefully draft players with the same bye and then just take a pass on that week and accept you are going to lose. I don’t recommend this, because if your season doesn’t exactly to plan and you need every win late in the season you do not want to be taking a pass on one week but if you want to take the risk then go for it!
7) Go big late
In later rounds of the draft there’s very little point in my opinion going for ‘safe’ guys to get you a guaranteed 2-3 points a week. You’re much better taking flyers on players with a high upside (especially at WR, look at Cruz and Shorts the last two seasons) and RB’s who are backups in their teams (especially if the starter is considered an injury risk). The reason for this is because it’s likely there’ll always be ‘safe’ guys on the wire but if one of those high upsides has a good week or the starting RB goes down then you’ll see the more risky players fly off the waiver wire. Even if your team is solid all year then these players may become good trade bait to try and combine with one of your starters to upgrade at that position (e.g. in 2011 I saw Bryant and Cruz traded to get C.Johnson by a team with two other top 20 receivers).
8) Know your league
Prior to the draft beginning make sure you have looked at the roster and scoring system of the league so you know whether you need 2 QB’s or 4 WR’s or if your league scoring is point(s) per reception (putting greater emphasis on pass catching RB’s and high volume WR’s and TE’s) or a passing touchdown is award 6 points instead of 4 (meaning that QB’s in offences that throw a lot more are more valuable in the draft)
If you have any league types that you’d like to ask about then feel free to leave a comment or tweet me and I will do my best to try and help you be successful with your strategy.
9) Handcuff your stud running backs
Generally it is fairly clear for stud running backs who will be their back up if injured and therefore you want to try and own them. Say you own Foster – look to draft Tate and if you own Lynch – grab Turbin? In some cases you may take these guys a round earlier than you might if you did not own their handcuff but if your main man goes down, then it will likely be worth it.
10) Keep fan bias out of your game
As an NFL fan it’s likely you’ll already have personal feelings about players and teams but try to avoid over drafting Luck if you’re a Colts fan or not drafting RG3 if you follow Dallas and cannot bear to see him successful. Try to hedge your bets a little – you are not being disloyal to your team!
At the same time do not let the fact you are a fan of a team stop you taking a player who has fallen in the draft (e.g. Brady drops to the 6th round but as a Patriots fan you don’t want to take him as it feels like personal bias). You have to look your fantasy league as a fan of the NFL not as a fan of a team so that you can jump on those players who are falling and avoid over drafting players based on your love of them. If you can do it you will likely be drafting a better team than many of your league mates who may have drafted with personal bias.
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I hope you find those draft tips useful; I’ve been playing fantasy football for a few years now and in my second year I read a similar article in a magazine from America prior to a few of my drafts and my teams have been a lot more successful since reading it so now I pass this wisdom on to you. I’ve tried to make the title of each point stand out without having to re-read each point during your draft when frankly you will have far too little time to read more than a line at a time!
Once again if you have any questions feel free to leave a comment or send me a message on Twitter and I will do my best to help you out.
