UK American Sports Fantasy: Football Start or Sit Week 1
Welcome to the first edition of my weekly version of the start sit article. Now as you will undoubtedly notice this is not your typical start sit article because I have listed around 30 QB’s and TE’s and 60 RB’s and WR’s in a tiers system rather than just offering you a few players who I am high on. The main reason for this is because I find that your typical article that lists just 5 starts and 5 sits to be less useful than a tier system for the simple basis that more players are covered. In addition, it is easier to see where I feel there are gaps in the value of players by using a tier system than a typical ranking system shows you. What this means is that just because I list a player first in a tier doesn’t mean I particularly like him more than the person I list last as I have placed the players in groups with people I feel they will score similarly to. I will also offer some insight in the article into players I feel I have placed higher or lower than others may rank them. This system is certainly something I found extremely useful both when drafting and choosing which players to start in my fantasy baseball leagues this year and thought could be used more in football and therefore I hope you find it equally as useful as I have.
Week 1 Tiers
QB’s
PLAYERS I AM HIGH ON:
Flacco – The Denver defence has lost Dumervil and Von Miller which will significantly affect their pass rush and the status of their experienced CB Champ Bailey is also up in the air so I feel all of this helps Flacco, who is usually a so-so fantasy QB.
Vick – Vick had a record setting night two years ago against a similar Washington defence and this time he has a potentially more explosive offensive system to work with. This game is going to be a shootout between two offensive minded teams and Vick should have a superb weak.
PLAYERS I AM LOW ON:
Newton – The only team to really make Newton look truly terrible last year was the Seahawks with their tough defence and I see Newton having a long night being chased around by a good defensive line and taking a number of hard hit.
Brady & Luck – Both have very easy match ups on paper but the danger is they get up big early against truly terrible offenses and don’t do a lot in the second half of the games. Both will be solid but if they were facing better offences they may have made it into the stud tier.
Studs: Rodgers, Brees, Peyton, Ryan, Stafford
Safe Starts: Brady, Luck, RG3, Flacco, Kaepernick, Wilson, Romo, Eli, Vick
Deep Starts: Newton, Cutler, Dalton, Roethlisberger, Tannehill, Palmer, Bradford, Ponder
Do Not Start: Freeman, Rivers, Schaub, Locker, A.Smith, Manuel, Weeden, Pryor, Gabbert, G.Smith
RB’s
PLAYERS I AM HIGH ON:
Miller – Miami have a relatively tough matchup in the passing game against Cleveland who has a strong pass rush and a good secondary but there run defence is the weaker part of the defensive unit. Add in that Tannehill is likely to check down a lot and this increases the value for Miller.
B.Tate – With Foster returning from injury it is unlikely he will see a full workload and Tate is good enough to be a starter for most teams so the Texans were likely to utilise him a bit anyway and the Foster situation should increase those touches
PLAYERS I AM LOW ON:
Martin – The one part of the Jets’ that is strong is the defence and therefore I foresee a frustrating day for Martin owners full of short runs. The upside for Martin here is that the Jets’ offence is so bad that it is likely the Bucs get up early and run the ball a lot.
Spiller – I seriously doubting Manuel plays this week and that means that Spiller is going to be the one man show on this Bill’s offence and the Patriots are usually very good at taking away what you are best at so expect them to zero in on Spiller.
Studs: Peterson, Rice, McCoy, T.Richardson, Lynch, Charles, Forte, Morris, Ridley, S.Jackson
Safe Starts: Martin, Foster, Spiller, Jones-Drew, C.Johnson, Wilson, Gore, Murray, Miller, Sproles, R.Bush, Bradshaw, Ivory
Flex: Ball, Green-Ellis, Ingram, D.Williams, McFadden, Mendenhall, D.Richardson, Lacy, Mathews, B.Tate
Deep Starts: Bernard, P.Thomas, M.Bush, Woodhead, Vereen, Pierce, Brown, Moreno, Jackson, Rodgers, Powell, Greene, J.Bell, Ballard, Tolbert, Helu
20 team + Starts: Pittsburgh RB’s, Hillman, D.Thomas, Gerhart, LeShoure, Taylor, Franklin
WR’s
PLAYERS I AM HIGH ON:
Decker – Thursday night’s game is likely to be a an explosive game with a lot of touchdowns and I think all three of Denver’s receivers are going to get targeted a lot especially with questions in the run game.
Thompkins – A rookie WR in the Patriots system tends to struggle but Thompkins has looked really good so far and in this game against the Bill’s, without number 1 CB Gilmore, he figures to see a lot of the early. May drop off later in the game if the Patriots have a big lead but he should perform as a flex for you.
PLAYERS I AM LOW ON:
Julio Jones – Many people see Jones as one of the best weapons in the game and they are right but unlike Marshall, Johnson and Green he is going to see his targets reduced by two very good and reliable guys in White and Gonzalez. He could easily have a monster game but he could just as easily have 70 yards and no TD.
S.Smith – I am down on Smith because he will receive great coverage from the Seahawks secondary who will try to force Newton to throw the ball to his secondary options. Seattles secondary is very physical and this hurts and the small Smith also.
Studs: C.Johnson, Marshall, Green, Bryant, Thomas
Safe Starts: Julio Jones, White, Fitzgerald, A.Johnson, Decker, Welker, Amendola, Colston, Cobb, Cruz, T.Smith, V.Jackson, D.Bowe, Garcon, A.Brown
Flex: S.Smith, Wayne, Nelson, Wallace, D.Jackson, Moore, Williams, Britt, Wright, E.Sanders, Hilton, Jennings, Shorts, Givens, Boldin, Nicks, M.Austin, Thompkins, G.Tate
Deep Starts: S.Johnson, A.Jeffery, Little, Woods, Hartline, Gibson, Stills, Patterson, M.Floyd, T.Austin, Ja.Jones, Randle, Avant, V.Brown
Start With Caution: Washington, Heyward-Bey, A.Sanders, Patton, Morgan, Roberts, Broyles, Sanu
Do Not Start: Jets WR’s
TE’s
I don’t feel I am particularly high or low on any tight ends so I thought I would do a general paragraph about the tiers below for them. The studs there is really nothing to say they could all be better than many of the safe start receivers listed above. The safe starts are expected to see a fair number of targets so I expect them to get solid points based on yardage totals but the TD’s may not be there like the will for the studs. The flex guys are boom or bust, I predict probably half will score less than 5 fantasy points but a couple of them will have double digits I just don’t know which ones until I see them more in their offence’s. I will have a better idea next week on those guys. Thomas is listed as a deep start because he is the 4th option on his offence and that worries me especially if the RB used in the offence cannot block meaning he has to be used as an extra blocker on passing downs. As for the Eagles and Miami TE’s I just don’t really have a clear picture who is going to be the guy and how that will work so for this week I wouldn’t touch them with a barge pole if I can avoid it and if I can’t I trade for someone better ASAP.
Studs: Graham, Gonzalez, Witten, V.Davis
Safe Starts: Bennett, Rudolph, Pettigrew, Olsen, Daniels, Myers
Flex: Sufeld, Eifert, Gresham, Cameron, Fleener, Allen, Housler, Cook, Finley, F.Davis, Gates
Deep Starts: Dickson, Thomas, Walker, Moeaki, Lewis
Do Not Start: Chandler, Eagle’s TE’s, Miami TE’s
Defence match ups
On defence I love to play the match ups rather than taking a pot shot on a ‘stud’ defence as there is no such thing in fantasy.
GOOD STREAMING DEFENCES:
Buccaneers, Patriots and Colts – The offences they are facing are likely to be absolutely awful so they should not give up many points and will probably get a ton of takeaways.
BAD STREAMING DEFENCES:
Falcons and Saints – This game should be a shootout and therefore you should avoid them both at all costs. Two good QB’s will also limit the chance for takeaways.
If you think there are any players missing at any position please let me know either here or on twitter (following the link below). Also if you have any questions as to why I have placed players where I have you can contact me on both of those options.
Good luck for Week 1!