UK American Sports Fantasy: Higher or Lower Part I
One of the best parts of the pre-draft period is trying to identify any inefficiency in the market, be that people being taken too high or too low. If you can identify players that you should take a round or two higher than their current draft position you can grab a potential stud player before others are even thinking of grabbing them. Vice-versa if you can identify players that normally go higher than you feel they should you can avoid taking them and risking having potential let down players for the position they were drafted on your team. In this article I will outline the 14 position players I feel you can take higher than they are currently being drafted in order to set your team up to be the best it possibly can be. The rounds highlighted in this article refer to a 10 team league so you will need to adjust them if your league size is different.
QB
Sam Bradford St. Louis Rams Currently going in the 14th, Take in the 12th
In general the top end QB’s are going too high but lower down there are some real bargains and Bradford is one of those. He has a decent receiving group with young talent and his line is better than it was last year. If the running game can get working Bradford could have a really solid year and be a top 15 QB making him a solid back up in 10 team leagues and a starter in deeper formats. There is plenty of value late in a ten team league at WR and TE so taking a QB a couple of rounds higher to ensure you have his potential on your bench as a spot start or in case of an injury.
Ryan Tannehill Miami Dolphins Undrafted, 12th
The offensive pieces around Tannehill are strong, the offence is more than familiar to him as he ran it in college and last year he doubled his game time experience so all arrows are pointing up for him. He is worth the risk over many of the more steady backups because a steady player can be found on the waivers all season in a ten team league and can be picked up if he falters which I don’t expect he will.
RB
Alfred Morris Washington Redskins Top of the 2nd, Bottom of the 1st
There are two things hurting his value. One is Shanahan because he has a reputation for messing around with his running backs but history has shown when he finds one he likes he sticks with him and trusts him. The second is that everyone expects the offence to run through RG3 but even if he’s healthy enough to be on the field he is not going to be able to shoulder as much of the load as if he was fully healthy and that is where Morris comes in. Most of the time I have seen him taken either in the swing picks at the end of the first round (picks 10 or 11) or the 12th/13th pick so taking him late in the first round ensures you have your running back set and can then grab one of the elite receivers in the second and don’t run the risk of missing out.
Lamar Miller Miami Dolphins 4th, 3rd
Miller did an adequate job last year in the backup role and now that Bush has moved on he has the opportunity to step up into the starting role in an offence primed to perform. A big part of Miller’s value actually rests on Tannehill because if he can get the offence really clicking then Miller’s job will be a lot easier. Grabbing Miller in the third allows you to take a second legitimate starting and look to potentially grab a strong number 3 in the fourth round and set your team up in the ideal place heading into the fifth round where you can then take the best available player at QB, WR and TE.
Bernard Pierce Baltimore Ravens 12th, 11th
If Rice goes down then Pierce is primed to be a monster and therefore well worth taking a round earlier than he is going in other places. Even if Rice is healthy there has been talk of him being put out at receiver in some formations which would leave the backfield open for Pierce on those formations. As a number four running back on your team he has tremendous upside and targeting him in a draft allows you to bolster the other offensive positions on your team that you would have had to sacrifice if you looked at a fourth running back earlier.
Robert Turbin Seattle Seahawks Undrafted, 15th
I picked Turbin as a sleeper this year and as a round 15 pick you essentially lose nothing by picking him up because if you decide you want someone else chances are they are still available on the wire. If Lynch does go down and Turbin nails down the backup job then he has Pierce potential in the Seattle offence. If he doesn’t get the job then he can be dropped in preseason to pick up a defence/kicker if you didn’t draft one or a another high upside guy if you did.
WR
Andre Johnson Houston Texans 4th, 3rd
The passing game in Houston runs through Johnson and although it is not a prolific passing offence he sees enough targets as the number one to make him one of the elite still and therefore deserves to go with the rest of the elite receivers in the third round. He will likely be over a 1000 yards with more than five touchdowns on the season and that makes him an easy top ten receiver.
Eric Decker Denver Broncos 7th, 6th
Another case of undervaluation because of the amount of quality in the offence as Decker will be the third option at the very least with Thomas and Welker seeing the majority of the targets. However, chances are that teams are going to have to pick two of the three to cover and they may decide Decker is the weakest link but with Manning at QB there is no real weak link. Expect to see nearly double digit touchdowns.
Kenny Britt Tennessee Titans 10th, 8th
He’s the number one option in an offence that needs to produce and that counts for a lot in fantasy football. This has been a quiet offseason for Britt and hopefully that can translate to on field success in the season. Locker will want a big time target to throw the ball too and Britt has the potential to be just that in which case he could be a cheap number 2 fantasy receiver.
Emmanuel Sanders Pittsburgh Steelers 11th, 10th
When two offences like the Patriots and Steelers fight over you then you must be pretty special. This offence is initially going to run through Bell but if the defence falters they will need to go deep to stay in games and that’s where Sanders will come to the fore. Real potential to be number 2 receiver but the inconsistency will make him number 3 more likely.
Ryan Broyles Detroit Lions 14th, 12th
Yes most balls in the Lions offence will go to Calvin but not every single one can so another receiver has to get some of them and Broyles has the potential to be amazing in the number 2 role for the Lions. If he nails it down a 12th round pick is peanuts for the potential that could be unlocked there.
TE
Jimmy Graham New Orleans Saints 3rd, 2nd
Graham is on everyone list as the number one tight end and if you ranked him alongside the receivers he would be in the top 5 on the majority of lists so he should go where the other elite receivers are. He is in the top passing offence in the league and he is the number one option so getting him in the second and anchoring you’re the receiving portion of the offence around him gives any team a tremendous boost.
Greg Olsen Carolina Panthers 11th, 10th
Olsen flashed signs of brilliance last year and another year in this offence should only prove to strengthen his standing as the number 2 option behind Smith and therefore has the potential to put up the numbers of a top five tight end so grabbing him in the 10th is a tremendous bargain if he lives up to that potential.
Brandon Pettigrew Detroit Lions Undrafted, 15th
Similar to the reasoning behind Broyles in that someone has to see the targets and Pettigrew is a heavy favourite to be that guy. If you grab him the 15th and it becomes apparent he isn’t one of the top options then he can be dropped for a kicker or defence who you would usually grab in this spot. If Stafford needs a check down then like most teams the tight end is likely to be that option. If that’s the case he could have top 10 tight end potential and if he’s your back up then at the very least he will be good trade bait early in the season.
The fifteen names I have included in this article are all people that will be an asset to your team if you target them. Of course you cannot target all of them so the best way to go about it is to have the names handy for your draft and then you can pull the trigger on the one you feel bests suits your team in the situation. Once again the best way to decide which guys on the list you want to target is to do mock drafts targeting different guys in each one and see how your team shakes out and then you can go into your draft with a plan A, B, C and D is necessary. Once again if you have any questions make sure to leave a comment or contact me on twitter using the button below this article.
