UK American Sports Fantasy: Higher or Lower Part II
Last week’s I told you the players that I would take higher than they are typically being drafted and this week it the turn of the players I feel are being over drafted. This doesn’t mean you shouldn’t draft the player I just don’t feel he should be drafted where he is currently going. This means that if you can wait on him and take him later then you will get much better value for you pick and will strengthen your team in other areas by utilising the pick you were going to take him with on someone with better value for that pick.
QB
Colin Kaepernick San Francisco 49ers Currently going in the 7th, Take in the 9th
There was always going to be a lot of hype surrounding Kaepernick and the 49ers after the way he played last year and there run to the Superbowl but it has got completely out of hand. He has only played a handful of games in the NFL and while yes he showed some great playmaking ability he also showed some fallibility. It’s not so much that he shouldn’t be being picked this high it more the case that I do not feel he should be going above Luck who is the better passer and can also make plays with his legs. A 7th round grade on Kaepernick is actually below where I have seen him go. Do not get caught up in the hype and hold fire because you will be able to get a better position player in the 7th and a decent QB, in Luck a round later at least.
Robert Griffin III Washington Redskins 8th, 9th
Again the hype around RG3 was always going to be huge after the way he performed but the reason I am cautious about him is not because I don’t think he can do it again but because of the injury he suffered last year. It is likely he will be back for the start of the season but the Redskins are not going to be cavalier with their future and that is what RG3 is. Expect to see the number of designed plays for him reduced and possibly a moment’s hesitation on scrambles early in the season which will hurt his value. In addition, if defences do not feel they need to worry about his legs as much this may reduce some of the passing numbers as well as defences will be able to focus on that a lot more without worry of him breaking free and beating them on the ground.
RB
CJ Spiller Buffalo Bills 3rd overall pick, Bottom of the 1st
Obviously if you’re picking number 3 overall Spiller is not going to drop to back to you in the second and you won’t have a pick at the end of the first so if you really want him you are going to have to take him but I feel there are a lot more sure things than Spiller who you can take in the top 5. These include; Peterson, Martin, Foster, Charles and Lynch. I accept that two of these are currently injury worries and Spiller is not but in Buffalo the situation is so fluid with the QB’s that defences are going to be zeroing in on the run game early in the season and not only will this affect Spiller’s numbers it will increase the risk of injury as there is going to be an extra player around waiting to hit him on every play.
Maurice Jones-Drew Jacksonville Jaguars 2nd, 3rd
Here is a double whammy of injury risk and terrible situation to be in. Jacksonville’s passing game is an absolute mess to begin with whether Henne or Gabbert is the QB and they are not going to worry defences in the slightest. This means that like Spiller the defences will be zeroing in on the run game and for a man who is coming back from a serious injury that is not a good thing. He will need a few weeks to get up to speed and whilst doing that he will suffer through a number of hits. If he gets his feet under him he could put up top 5 numbers but the risk is better in the 3rd round, as either your number 3 RB or once you have an elite WR on your team.
WR
DeSean Jackson Philadelphia Eagles 6th, 7th
Jackson’s value saw an increase with the loss of Maclin for the year. This put him at the clear number one receiver in Philly but even with that I still feel he is being slightly over drafted. Chip Kelly’s offence is going to be built on the run and I think that is a detriment to Jackson’s value. Getting him in the seventh means you should already have at least two receivers and he will be a nice three instead of a shaky two if taken here.
Torrey Smith Baltimore Ravens 6th, 8th
Smith is the number one option in the offence at receiver now that Boldin has moved and the loss of Pitta only reinforces that. However, I cannot help but feel so much of his value relies on the big play and with no other clear big play receiver he is going to see a lot of over the top double coverage and that severely impacts his value. Another guy who will be a good third receiver but he will blow too hot and cold to be a reliable number 2.
T.Y. Hilton Indianapolis Colts 8th, 9th
Hilton has a lot of talent but there are all of a sudden a lot of mouths to feed in Indy and I can’t help but feel this affects him more than some of the others. He is already at risk of losing time in two WR sets to DHB and when you chuck in that their OC was with Luck at Stanford when his tight ends were huge playmakers suggests he may lose out in 3 WR sets to Allen or Fleener. If he can cement the number two spot, which he has shown promise in preseason, then he will be a good number three but I feel you can get better talent in the 8th than him.
Aaron Dobson New England Patriots 12th, 15th
Dobson is perhaps the biggest loser this season in terms of value. After the draft he was looking at being a starting receiver for the Patriots and was being drafted as high as the 7th or 8th round. However, the emergence of Kenbrell Thompkins as the starter has really hurt Dobson’s value and has seen him slip down the rankings and I expect that to happen further. In the 12th you can often find the likes of Blackmon and Gordon, both suspended to start the season, and I would prefer both of these in the long run than Dobson.
TE
Rob Gronkowski New England Patriots 5th, 6th
Yes he’s amazing and yes Tom Brady loves him but all these injuries are a huge concern. No sure thing to start the season and if he stays healthy I will be stunned. You can get a consistent number 2 receiver’s such as Cobb here who will likely see more targets just based on the extra playing time. In the 6th he is more worth the risk where you are likely looking at QB, 3rd receivers and 4th running backs of which there will be players just as good available a round later.
Vernon Davis San Francisco 49ers 6th, 7th
I’ve seen him go ahead of Witten and Gonzalez in some drafts and to me that is absurd. Yes he is quality when he gets the ball but in this offence I question what role he will have. Boldin will be Mr. reliable as always and with a strong run game with 4 people vying for carries I don’t see him getting Crabtree’s targets as many have predicted.
Jermichael Finley Green Bay Packers 10th, 12th
I have heard the stories that he and Rodgers are friends again but Mr. Stone hands II (Wallace being number 1) is just so unreliable. If he has a few drops early on and Rodgers loses confidence in him then he will see a drastic reduction in targets and therefore a reduction in points for your team. There are far better and more consistent TE’s available in the 10th than him.
The 11 players I have outlined above will all probably help your fantasy team but it is the value that you get them at that concerns me and that is why they have made this list. A quick caveat: On certain sites there is a huge boost to certain positions in the ADP of certain positions with QB being the main one. I haven’t included don’t take Rodgers in the first because in the majority of places he is not going there so I have tried to pick the most obvious players across a few sites to outline in order to cover as many bases as possible.
As always if you have any questions feel free to get in touch either via the comments section or the twitter icon below.