UK American Sports Fantasy: Rolfe’s Mock Draft

Following last week’s fantasy football strategy, I thought I would create a mock draft to highlight some of my ideas.

Starting by selecting pick 5 in the draft – I prefer drafting in the middle of the round resulting in fairly regular picks and therefore do not always have to think 20 picks in advance.

The mock involved 10 teams and the roster make-up was: 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, K, DEF, had a total of 15 rounds and was a non-PPR league. I will review the first five rounds on a round-by-round basis before analysing my team and one other who took a different strategy.

ROUND 1

Peterson (MIN), Foster (HOU), Martin (TB), Charles (KC), Lynch (SEA), Spiller (BUF), Rice (BAL), McCoy (PHI), Richardson (CLE), Morris (WSH)

Stand out point: Calvin Johnson was not selected in the first round. I have done a number of mocks in the last three or four weeks and this probably the second or third draft I have seen it in and the first for about 20 or so.

As for the order of selection of the running backs I have no real queries but if I was being picky then I would say that maybe Spiller went a little high considering it was a non-PPR league. At number five I went Lynch, because the four backs I have ranked above him had gone and with Harvin out I now see this offense rolling through Lynch even more and I believe he can stay healthy the majority of the year.

ROUND 2

Johnson (DET), Green (CIN), Johnson (TEN), Jackson (ATL), Forte (CHI), Graham (NO), Bryant (DAL), Ridley (NE), Jones-Drew (JAC), Marshall (CHI)

Stand out point: Neither Rodgers or Brees was selected. While this is unusual it is not a major shock as it does sometimes happen that they slide into the third.

Calvin may have dropped out of the first round but being selected 11 essentially makes him pretty much a first rounder as either Morris or him could have gone in the 10 spot. I would be shocked to ever see him go lower than this year but I have been told by people they have seen it happen but do not bank on him being available at 12 or later. Green, Bryant and Marshall also going in this round is not a shock to me as they are my number 2, 3 and 4 ranked receivers respectively. I took Graham at pick 16 and I debated Dez at this spot but I felt that Jimmy has the possibility to have more points than all receivers other than Johnson this year. The backs who went in this round are fairly standard with my only points of contention being that I would probably take Jackson over Johnson and I personally would not take the risk on MJD in this round as he is a huge injury risk to me.

ROUND 3

Jones (ATL), Fitzgerald (ARI), Thomas (DEN), Millar (MIA), Bush (DET), Rodgers (GB), Brees (NO), Kaepernick (SF), Gore (SF), Murray (DAL)

Stand out point: Kaepernick being selected in the third round! OK, my previous two stand outs were not major points but this is a huge shock to me because I think Kaepernick is more likely to be the 10th best QB than he is the 8th, so to take him third is a huge gamble. Yes, he is a great talent but he lost his best receiver and once ahead in games, which with that defense they will be a lot, then I think they are just going to pound the rock which will really limit his ability to score points. Going to be closer to Wilson’s points levels than to Rodger and Brees.

Other than that, this is a fairly standard round with the three receivers going at the top of the round being the last that you would probably consider elite. Miller and Bush have huge upside but are probably not worth a second round gamble so this is the right place for them.

I took Bush at 25 but I debated taking Murray (his injury risk is bigger so I went Bush) and Rodgers, as I wanted a second RB with top 10 potential. Had Miller fallen, I would have taken him over Bush. I think this is a good place for Rodgers and Brees, but as an owner taking them I would be happier in the 4th, but this is the highest I would take them.

I have followed my strategy of 2RB’s and an elite WR or Graham in the first three rounds and five other teams have gone the same way. The team who took two elite receivers at the turn you can not blame for doing it because Jones has such upside that he is worth gambling on a running back I think. The teams who took QB’s had taken 2 RB’s in the first two rounds and with no elite receivers still available at the back half of the third you can understand them taking a QB.

ROUND 4

McFadden (OAK), Johnson (HOU), Cobb (GB), White (ATL), Sproles (NO), Bell, (PIT), Wilson (NYG), Cruz (NYG), Ball (DEN), Nelson (GB)

Stand out point: McFadden 20th RB off the board. Something I am fairly sure of is that McFadden will not be the 20th RB at the end of the season, he will either be top 5 or nearer 50th depending on if he can stay healthy. Smart money says he stands no chance of staying healthy, but if you already have two good RB’s and can get him in the 4th he’s probably worth a gamble.

Four of the running backs taken in this round have real potential to be top 10 RB’s come the end of the season with Sproles being the exception. McFadden I have already explained how he could be a top 5 RB if healthy but for the other three (Bell, Wilson and Ball) if they nail down the starting job early and then manage to keep it for the majority of the season they could put up huge numbers. I debated all three of them with my pick at 36 but went with Bell for the simple reason that he has very little competition in comparison to the other two and the Steelers love to run the ball. Wilson will lose goal line carries to Andre Brown, if he is fit, and Ball faces stiff competition from Hillman and potentially Moreno that could lead to running back by committee situation in Denver.

As for the five wideouts that went in this round I believe they are all very close and I agree Andre is the best of the next step down after the elite guys as Houston’s passing game will run through him. White is an offense where there are three big targets including him so he may be inconsistent to fantasy owners and therefore I would take him after Victor Cruz who I feel is the main man in New York this year. In a non-PPR league I personally prefer Nelson but I can understand why people want Cobb’s big play potential.

ROUND 5

Davis (SF), Ryan (ATL), P.Manning (DEN), Gronkowski (NE), Amendola (NE), Jackson (TB), Colston (NO), Smith (BAL), Welker (DEN), Wayne (IND)

Stand out point: Davis going as the 2nd TE overall. Many people have him ranked 5th at the highest and I am indecisive where in the top 10 he fits in my own rankings but I think second is too high. I can see why people would not take the risk on Gronk but in a single season league Witten or Gonzalez are far better bets in my opinion.

While I am on the topic of Gronk he is a tough guy to judge when to take if your targeting him as I have seen him go as high as the second round and as a low at the sixth round. If you really believe he is going to play the majority of games this season he is going to be Brady’s number 1 more than likely so he is worth taking in the second or third. If he slips into the 6th then he is probably worth a gamble especially if someone has snatched up Witten and Gonzalez.

Ryan and Peyton going back to back is exactly what I would expect as when I was ranking them this year I kept flip flopping them but ended up giving Peyton the edge as he has a receiving core equal to that of Ryan’s and he is still a superb QB.

Now to deal with the receivers in this round and the best way to say this is that they are all legitimate number 1/2 receivers. I started the run on receivers at 45 with the selection of Amendola because I feel he can stay healthy and be superb with Brady at QB. I debated Jackson and Welker but felt that the QB ruled out Jackson and the fact that Amendola may start the season as the number 1 receiver while Welker will likely be the second and potentially the third option on his team. Colston is the number 2 in the Saints offense but I think his production will be variable but on the good weeks he has the potential to single handedly win weeks. Smith and Wayne are the number 1’s in their respective offenses but how much the Ravens will open up and whether Wayne’s age may catch up to him is something that fantasy owners need to consider. I would of ranked these six Amendola, Jackson, Welker, Wayne, Smith, Colston.

MY TEAM

Lynch (SEA), Graham (NO), Bush (DET), Bell (PIT), Amendola (NE), Nicks (NYG), Austin (STL), Luck (IND), Johnson (BUF), Franklin (GB), Sanders (PIT), Pierce (BAL), Tannehill (MIA), Pettigrew (DET), Broyles (DET)

QB: I took Luck in the 8th round as the 9th QB off the board in the same round as Brady and the round after Stafford. I have him ranked 8th in his own little tier below Newton, Brady and Stafford and above the Romo, Wilson, RG3 group. I took Tannehill in the 13th round in an attempt to take a high upside back up and someone who I feel will break out this year.

RB: With two RB’s being started the trio of Lynch, Bush and Bell gives me great options on a week to week basis and allows me to have one injury in the three and still have a serviceable group in my backfield. Franklin in the 10th gives me the potential to have a starting running back as my fourth back. If Lacy doesn’t nail down the job or succumbs to injury then Franklin is the man in Lambeau so he is ideal trade bait or a match up play. Pierce in the 12th round and as my fifth running back is something I am overjoyed about because the situation in Baltimore is messy with Pitta going down and with Rice’s receiving ability you could see him splitting out wide and allowing Pierce into the game more. Equally if Rice gets injured Pierce could easily be a monster in the RB potential.

WR: By taking Graham in the second round instead of Marshall or Bryant it immediately weakened my receiving core but to have a 1/2 punch of Amendola and Nicks is still a quality pairing but it is very susceptible to injury because both of these are huge risks. Austin in the 7th as my third receiver is something I am happy about as well because some people have discussed him as their number 2 in previous drafts and if he forms a connection with Bradford hen he could be just what St. Louis are looking for. Johnson in the 9th and Sanders in the 11th have the potential to have monster years with Johnson getting a new QB and offensive system and Sanders in an offense who is likely going to need to go deep a lot with their weakened defense. Broyles in the 15th is a huge upside shot because if he nails down a starting slot in camp he is likely to see a lot of single coverage and could be a monster.

TE: Graham in the second is a no brainer as he is the best at his position and means that in a head to head I should always have a advantage at tight end. Sacrificing an elite WR is well worth it but there is injury worry here so I picked up Pettigrew in the 14th as I feel he has been undervalued in fantasy this year. In addition, there are a number of good tight ends going to be available on the wire so if Pettigrew does not get going in camp a replacement can be found easily.

K/DEF: I took neither of these because it allowed me to take Pettigrew and Broyles as potential high upside picks and then I would find a K and DEF before week 1.

OTHER TEAM

Only one team did not take 2 RB’s in the first two rounds instead choosing to go with Marshall and Jones at the end of the second and start of the third and while this has left them with a superb group of receivers it has left them dreadfully thin at RB with their number 2 being Matthews (SD) and their back ups being Richardson (STL) and Jackson (BUF). Yes their number 1 is Adrian Peterson but if disaster happens and he goes down injured there is not much high quality potential there at the position. To me this shows the importance of going for 2 RB’s in the first two rounds and if possible 3 in the first 4 because it allows you to swing for upside later in the draft at a shallow position rather than having to try and go a bit safer (Jackson).

RB is the most shallow of the four major positions and that is something that becomes evident when you do a few mock drafts so I urge you to try and do at least five before your actual draft and try out my strategy and then going for a QB or a couple of WR’s early and seeing how it affects your team. I can give you as much advice as I want but the best way for you to believe what I am saying is to try it out for yourself.

Once again if you have any questions about my strategy, individual players and where they went, or how I felt about that pick then comment below or find me on Twitter.