Unbeatable runs broken as summer settles in

The Liverpool Trojans lost their first league game in nearly two years, the Sheffield Bladerunners split a series with their nearest rivals and the Guildford Mavericks had to go to extra innings to preserve their record as an amazing weekend of baseball left the playoff positions up in the air across the leagues.

Ben Pearson and Enmanual Estevez did the damage for the Cartmel Valley Lions as they ‘surprised’ the Liverpool Trojans in a 7-1 rattling in the first game at Bootle Stadium on Sunday. Both hit home runs in the first two innings, with Pearson pitching strongly and allowing just a single score in the final frame against the usually reliable Martin Godsall. Normal service resumed on a 12-0 slaughter win for Liverpool in the second game, with Paul Smith hitting a walk-off grand slam, but the message had been sent. The Lions stay second, with the Trojans well out ahead, but it is likely the pair will playoff for the AAA North NBC position, and it will be a thriller. GB Under-23s Ben Pearson and Liverpool’s Rob Vondy were the winning pitchers, which bodes well in the run-up to the squad’s trip to New England this week. Rain knocked out the other action between Bolton Robots of Doom and the Menwith Hill Patriots and the Manchester As and Halton Jaguars.

The main event in AA North was also between the top two, as the Harrogate Tigers travelled across Yorkshire to face the Sheffield Bladerunners. The Bladerunners took care of business with a tricky 10-8 win in the first, but their 11-game win streak was halted by the Tigers as they won big, 15-3, to put pressure on the league leaders. The Hull Scorpions and Manchester Torrent split a pair, while the potential history-maker at Newton Aycliffe was called off as the Spartans and Oldham North Stars also fell foul of the weather.

AA Midlands saw a win for the Milton Keynes Bucks over the Birmingham Maple Leafs, meaning the Bucks take second by a game and the Leafs drop to fourth, while the Nottingham Rebels had no real challenges in brushing aside the Stourbridge Titans. The Rebels are now the only team outside of the south who haven’t lost this season, standing on top of the league at a perfect 10-0.

AA South witnessed an extra-innings success for the Guildford Mavericks over the Daws Hill Spitfires as a four-run rally in the bottom of the final inning got the Spitfires within touching distance of a win, while two successes for the Croydon Pirates III and a win for the Southampton Mustangs II once again demonstrated the strength of Pool A over Pool B. That said, the top two split a pair as neither the London Mammoths or Sidewinders could make up ground or edge ahead, while the Essex Redbacks II secured their first win in four with the division’s only victory over Pool A teams this week.

In AAA South, a sweep for the Cambridge Royals over the Essex Redbacks changed the pace of things in the division as the Royals are now a game behind in Pool B. In Pool A, a split between the Richmond Knights and Bristol Badgers keeps things very interesting, while neither the Latin Boys or London Metros could get the better of one another. Their split opens up a significant gap between the top two and themselves, making it an enticing run to see if either can catch the Redbacks or Royals.

Single-A produced a couple of big results, with Hove Tuesday’s return to action resulting in a thumping of the Guildford Mavericks II – who have lost three on the bounce – while the Herts Raptors made a big impression with a thumping win over the Tonbridge Bobcats in Kent. The London Marauders continued their unbeaten run this season with a success over the Richmond Dukes, who are yet to pick up a victory.

Onto the NBL. In Grovehill Ballpark, the much-anticipated games between the Herts Falcons and London Mets couldn’t be staged through a waterlogged pitch, which allowed both the Harlow Nationals and Southampton Mustangs the chance to return to the top of the division if one was able to sweep the other. The Nationals duly obliged, and the reigning champs find themselves well placed for one of the top three positions, with the Mustangs now a couple of games back with hard opposition to face.

But the real story was at RAF Lakenheath where the host Diamondbacks took on the Essex Arrows. Both were fighting for the fifth post-season spot for the chance to go to the NBCs via a playoff game, and to some extent still are, though Lakenheath will have a major advantage for the remainder of the season. Luke Foley, another GB 23U, made his mark with a two-out grandslam for the Arrows in the top of the seventh of Game 2 to level the scores and force extras, but two walk-off wins means the Diamondbacks move two and a half games clear of the Arrows in fifth, but stay a further three games back of the Mustangs in fourth. The Arrows have lost six in a row, and eight in the last nine, whereas the Diamondbacks have won six of their last nine to make a charge. With games in hand, Lakenheath will still be confident of making a move up the leaderboard.

So where do I fancy teams to finish?

The second half of the season kicks off this weekend, so let’s use all of my extensive British baseball knowledge to assume some editorial understanding of the likely outcomes.

Single-A. The Essex Archers will win Pool A. It’s highly likely that the Old Timers will take second (although they historically don’t participate in the playoffs, so probably the Herts Raptors will make their post-season debut). Whoever finishes second will probably play against Hove Tuesday, if they can get their games in, as from afar I think they’re slightly stronger than London Marauders, although the Marauders will almost certainly finish in the top two and make their second consecutive run at summer classic.

Joining them from the North and Midlands respectively will probably be the Hull Scorpions, Manchester Torrent, Birmingham Maple Leafs and Leicester Blue Sox – the same quartet that played out for the regional Single-A place in 2011. It’s almost impossible to say which of the eight teams will be in the final at the NBCs, but it’ll be a great contest.

AA. Starting in the South, the Guildford Mavericks are certain to be in the playoffs, as are the Poole Piranhas. Pool A then sees a scrap between five teams for the remaining two places, but I would back the Southampton Mustangs II and Croydon Pirates III to take those positions. Pool B will likely be a three-way tussle for top spot between the Sidewinders, London Mammoths and Herts Hawks, with the Daws Hill Spitfires, Essex Redbacks II and Kent Mariners to get the final spot. Smart money would probably be on the Spitfires, but they have a crucial run of games over the next four weeks to cement that assumption.

In the Midlands, MK Bucks and Nottingham Rebels will likely take the two spots, fighting with the Sheffield Bladerunners and Harrogate Tigers. The Rebels and Bladerunners are almost assured already, while the Tigers and Bucks could have a fight on their hands, but I’ll stand by this prediction.

AAA North will be one of either the Cartmel Valley Lions and Menwith Hill Patriots fighting for second and the right to take on the Trojans, unless something goes horribly wrong for Liverpool following their defeat this weekend. One of those three teams will join three of any number of sides from AAA South, as results this weekend have changed the standings dramatically. I would back the Essex Redbacks and Bristol Badgers to take their respective Pools, with Oxford Kings and Cambridge Royals fighting for the third spot in the NBCs.

NBL. I think it’ll be the three teams currently in the top three positions (namely Harlow Nationals, Herts Falcons and London Mets) that take the automatic NBC places, as the Mets have games in hand to further pull away from the Southampton Mustangs. In fact, I fancy the Lakenheath Diamondbacks to take fourth this year, giving them a slight advantage heading into the post-season, but can’t see them making the top three even though they have up to six games in hand over the teams above them.

This weekend will possibly settle a few questions we’re all thinking.

1. Will any teams be officially eliminated by the end of the weekend?

Potentially both the Croydon Pirates and Bracknell Blazers (who didn’t play last weekend) will be gone. The Bolton Robots of Doom have a few games to make up, but following their AA National Championship they’ve found AAA North a step too far after losing a few major members of their side. They, and likely the Manchester As, won’t be going to the playoffs with losses this weekend. The Newton Aycliffe Spartans may also be mathematically out of the running with a couple of defeats on Sunday, with fellow league debutants the Richmond Dukes also likely falling out. Also the Brentwood Stags and Stourbridge Titans could have their season’s fates secured by Sunday night.

2. Will any teams go unbeaten this year?

Four teams are still yet to lose, although only the Guildford Mavericks’ and Nottingham Rebels’ record is really worthy of mention given how little baseball the London Marauders and Hove Tuesday have managed so far (mostly due to rain). However, it’s hard to see Hove Tuesday failing against the Dukes on Sunday, while the Rebels will fancy themselves for two against the Birmingham Maple Leafs. The Mavericks won’t envisage losing to the Kent Mariners in their own back garden either.

3. What’s the best-looking league in 2012?

Depending on what categories you use to qualify this depends on your answer. There are three teams vying for the divisional title in the NBL, but they’re all likely to make the NBCs so it’s a little less exciting when you consider they’ll still have another chance to playoff over a weekend for the right to be called National Champions if they don’t finish top. For me, AAA South is the most enticing, as literally any of the seven teams could take one of the three playoff berths – you’ve got to be in it to win it. The Redbacks travel to Oxford to take on the Kings and the Cambridge Royals take on the Latin Boys, all of which will have implications for the final standings.

4. What’s the impact of the upcoming GB tours?

Most of the players taking part in the Cadet, Junior and Under-23 tours will be major losses to their clubs. In particular, the 23U and Junior sides will see absentees from clubs who may not have personnel in reserve to replace them, and will hope that they stay injury-free as they travel to the US, Canada and Europe over the next month or so. Bracknell may suffer the most as they have such a youthful squad in the NBL, but make no mistake that the players’ talent being unavailable will be a big dent for all teams. The close games over the past fortnight may not be replicated over the first two weeks of July.